Israel election live: polls open in most consequential vote in country’s history

This election is viewed as a referendum because voters are judging Netanyahu’s leadership during an extraordinary period. Hamas militants broke out from Gaza on 7 October 2023 and killed nearly 1,200 people, most of them civilians. Israel then destroyed much of Gaza and entered wider regional conflict, including a war with Iran.

Netanyahu was prime minister when the attack happened. His government has also backed settlement expansion and faced criticism over an aggressive surge in deadly settler violence in the occupied West Bank. Those policies have strained relations with traditional allies and contributed to Israel’s growing international isolation.

The result also affects Netanyahu personally. He is 76 and on trial in three corruption cases. Polls suggest his coalition may lose its majority, although the opposition may also fall short. Voters are therefore deciding both whether to continue his political course and whether to keep him in power while his legal cases continue.

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament. It has 120 seats, and voters elect parties rather than choosing a prime minister directly. The distribution of those seats determines which political groups can support a government and pass laws.

The key threshold is 61 seats. A party rarely reaches that number alone, so parties usually combine into a governing coalition. For example, Netanyahu’s coalition includes ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties. Polls say that bloc may fall below 61, while the opposition bloc may also lack enough seats to govern by itself.

When no bloc has 61 supporters, the election does not immediately produce a government. Parties must negotiate over leadership, policy, and cabinet roles. The result can be weeks or months of political wrangling. The Knesset therefore matters not only as a legislature, but also as the central test of who can assemble a governing majority.

The Knesset contains 120 seats. A governing coalition needs at least 61 seats, which is more than half the chamber. This threshold matters because Israel’s election result is measured not only by which party finishes first, but by whether several parties can collectively cross 61.

The article describes a likely split result. Netanyahu’s coalition of ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties is expected to fall below 61. The opposition bloc is also projected to fall short. Neither side may therefore have an immediate path to government, even if the opposition has a clear anti-Netanyahu majority among Jewish Israeli voters.

That gap creates bargaining pressure after the vote. Parties can seek policy concessions, cabinet positions, or other guarantees before joining a coalition. If negotiations fail, political uncertainty can last weeks or months. The 61-seat figure is thus the election’s central mathematical test, not merely a headline number.

Netanyahu’s rivals do not form a single-policy bloc. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, leads the field in polls but is associated with the Dahiya doctrine, which uses “disproportionate force” to cause damage and destruction. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister and settler-council chair, supports annexing much of the West Bank.

Avigdor Lieberman proposes dismantling the Palestinian Authority and replacing it with an Israeli-Jordanian confederation. The article notes that Jordan was apparently not consulted. Yair Golan leads the Democrats, described as the only remaining political home for Israel’s Zionist left, and is a former general and military deputy chief.

Their differences matter because the election follows wars in Gaza and Iran, and an expansion of settlement activity. Some opponents seek a change from Netanyahu’s course, while others hold hard-line security or territorial positions. The opposition may therefore oppose Netanyahu without agreeing on Gaza, the West Bank, or Israel’s security strategy.

A bloc that falls below 61 seats lacks the parliamentary majority needed to form a government on its own. That does not automatically decide the election. Instead, parties must look for partners, persuade rivals to join, or find enough outside support to survive confidence votes and pass legislation.

The article gives the likely scenario directly. Netanyahu’s coalition may lose its majority, but the opposition bloc may also fall short despite a clear anti-Netanyahu majority. Parties would then make deals and trade concessions. Small or ideologically distinct parties could become especially important if their seats determine which side crosses the threshold.

The immediate consequence is uncertainty rather than a guaranteed change of government. Negotiations could last weeks or even months. If a coalition eventually forms, its policies may reflect compromises among its members. If negotiations fail, Israel could face another attempt to assemble a governing coalition rather than a simple transfer of power.

After an Israeli election, the president’s role is mainly constitutional rather than executive. The president consults elected parties and typically gives one lawmaker the task of trying to form a government. The excerpt identifies Isaac Herzog as president and says he will play a crucial role, but it does not provide further details about his authority.

The assigned politician must build a coalition that can command at least 61 Knesset seats. That requires negotiating with parties whose priorities may differ sharply. In this election, Netanyahu’s bloc is expected to fall below 61, while the opposition also appears short. The president’s choice can therefore matter when no bloc has a clear path.

The process may take weeks or months because parties must bargain over policies, leadership, and government positions. If the first attempt fails, another attempt may follow under Israel’s constitutional procedures. The likely result is prolonged uncertainty before a government is sworn in.

Israel’s proportional-election system generally allocates Knesset seats according to parties’ shares of the vote. The source does not explain this mechanism, but it helps explain the article’s central problem: neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition may reach 61 seats. Several parties can win representation without any one party dominating parliament.

That structure makes small parties important. A larger bloc may need their seats to cross the majority threshold. In return, smaller parties can bargain over policies, ministries, or other commitments. The article describes Netanyahu’s coalition as including ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties, showing how different groups can combine to govern.

The result is coalition politics rather than automatic single-party rule. A clear anti-Netanyahu majority does not guarantee an alternative government because that majority may be divided among parties. After voting ends, negotiations and trade-offs determine whether any alliance can reach 61 seats and remain stable.