Israel heads to the polls as shift to the right dominates critical election

Israel is holding a closely contested parliamentary election after the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, the ensuing war in Gaza, and a wider regional conflict. Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking another term after leading Israel’s most right-wing government. The election is therefore about more than choosing a prime minister. It is also a judgment on security, accountability, and Israel’s political direction.

The campaign has focused on alleged failures before the attack, the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men, and efforts to exclude Arab-led parties. Netanyahu also faces a corruption trial and an International Criminal Court warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza. His opponents present themselves as an alternative, but the article describes them as largely right-wing too.

The vote offers little expected change for Palestinians. Deadly attacks continue in Gaza despite a yearlong ceasefire, while settler violence and army raids have intensified in the occupied West Bank. A Netanyahu defeat could change Israel’s political atmosphere, but not necessarily its wider policies.

A shift to the right means Israel’s political center has weakened while parties favoring tougher security policies, Jewish nationalism, and continued settlement expansion have gained influence. The article presents this as a long-term movement, not merely a result of Netanyahu’s latest government. It also says the shift accelerated after the Hamas-led attack in 2023.

The 2018 Nation-State Law is one example. The article says it formally enshrined Jewish supremacy. It also points to the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory. In government, far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have pushed the political debate further right.

This shift narrows the space for left-wing alternatives. Even leaders opposing Netanyahu have embraced a right-wing approach to Israel’s challenges. As a result, changing governments may alter tone and coalition arrangements without producing a major change in policies toward Palestinians.

Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. A government needs the support of at least 61 members to hold a majority. These figures are not provided in the supplied article, but they are established facts about Israel’s parliamentary system.

The number matters because Israeli elections distribute seats among many parties rather than awarding all power to one winner. A party can finish first without reaching 61 seats. It must then negotiate with other parties to build a governing coalition and secure confidence in parliament.

That structure helps explain why Netanyahu relies on allies, including far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Smaller parties can become decisive when neither major bloc controls enough seats alone. Their support can win policy concessions, ministerial posts, and influence over legislation, security decisions, and the government’s overall direction.

Netanyahu’s main coalition allies include far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, plus ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. The article describes his government as Israel’s most right-wing coalition. These partners matter because Netanyahu needs their parliamentary support to remain in power and advance his political program.

Their influence is larger than their individual size. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich supported Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul and encouraged or covered for increased violence in the West Bank, according to the article. Ultra-Orthodox parties helped sustain the coalition but opposed conscription policies affecting their community. Their support therefore came with demands and political costs.

Coalition dependence also shapes accountability. The article says Netanyahu’s allies helped deflect attempts to hold the government responsible for alleged security failures before the Hamas-led attack. If their backing disappears, Netanyahu could lose power or face pressure to change policy, but a new coalition could still remain predominantly right-wing.

If Netanyahu loses, the clearest immediate change may be political tone. Analyst Ahron Bregman says a new prime minister, such as Gadi Eisenkot, could calm a country divided between intense admiration and hatred of Netanyahu. A different coalition could also change the government’s approach to judicial power, accountability, and ultra-Orthodox military service.

Yet the article warns against expecting a fundamental policy reversal. Netanyahu’s opponents describe themselves as an alternative, but they have largely embraced a right-wing approach to Israel’s challenges. The broader political system, the article argues, operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy that predates Netanyahu’s latest government.

For Palestinians, deadly attacks in Gaza continue despite a yearlong ceasefire. Settler pogroms and Israeli army raids have intensified in the occupied West Bank. A new leader might change rhetoric and coalition behavior, but the article gives little reason to expect a major improvement in Palestinian lives.

The article describes Israel’s rightward movement as a process built over several decades. The collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process removed a central issue around which moderate and left-wing politics had organized. Repeated security crises then made protection and military strength more dominant in public debate.

As confidence in peace declined, the political center and left lost influence. The article connects this erosion to the 2018 Nation-State Law, which formally enshrined Jewish supremacy, and to the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory. It says governments imposed little or no restraint on that expansion.

This history helps explain why Netanyahu’s latest coalition is not the sole cause of Israel’s current direction. The article says the rightward drift existed before his government, though it accelerated under it. The result is a narrower political field, in which even Netanyahu’s opponents largely reject a traditional left-wing alternative.

In a proportional parliamentary system, parties receive seats broadly according to their share of the national vote. Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, and a governing majority requires 61. Because several parties can enter parliament, the largest party may still lack enough seats to govern alone.

The key mechanism is coalition bargaining. After the results, the party best placed to assemble 61 supporters negotiates with other parties. Smaller groups can demand policy commitments, cabinet positions, or protection for their core interests in exchange for joining. This is why ultra-Orthodox parties and far-right factions can exert influence beyond their size.

The system can produce governments that reflect agreements among parties rather than one party’s full program. It also makes coalitions vulnerable if a small partner withdraws support. Netanyahu’s reliance on far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies illustrates how election arithmetic can shape judicial policy, military-service disputes, and the government’s approach to the West Bank.