Four things to know as Israel’s polls open in defining test for Netanyahu

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament, made up of 120 seats. Voters choose party lists, and those lists receive seats according to their share of the national vote. The key governing target is 61 seats, which is more than half the Knesset. That number matters because a government needs enough parliamentary support to pass laws and survive political challenges.

No single Israeli party has ever won an outright majority. Instead, parties negotiate after elections to form coalitions. For example, several parties can combine their seats to reach 61, while smaller parties may become crucial partners. A government can operate with fewer seats, but the article describes a minority government as especially fragile.

If neither main bloc reaches 61, negotiations can take weeks. President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders and nominates the person he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That nominee has up to 42 days, and others may receive a chance if the first attempt fails.

This election is seen as a referendum because voters are judging Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure as prime minister. The article describes it as a defining test of his almost two decades in power. A strong result would help him continue leading the country, while a defeat could allow centrist rivals to replace him and change the direction of government.

The political contest is closely divided between Netanyahu’s bloc and an opposing bloc. That makes every seat important, especially because neither side is guaranteed the 61 seats needed to form a government. The opposition also faced internal disagreement over whether voters should support Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party or distribute their votes among four parties.

The outcome may therefore measure more than Netanyahu’s personal popularity. It will decide which bloc can assemble a coalition and whether his Likud finishes ahead of Eisenkot’s party. Even if exit polls quickly show the broad result, coalition bargaining could determine who actually governs.

The article states that Israel has 6.8 million eligible voters. In the last elections, 4.8 million people voted, producing a turnout rate of 71 per cent. Voting is voluntary, yet participation is usually high because political engagement is strong across Israeli society.

Israeli voters must normally vote in person on election day. Unlike Australia, Israel does not generally rely on postal voting for ordinary voters. Only people serving their country overseas, including diplomats and defence personnel, can vote in advance by mail. The polling process therefore depends heavily on people attending polling stations.

Turnout could be even higher in this election because the stakes are unusually intense. It is the first national election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the campaign has focused on Netanyahu’s future, Iran and the possibility of renewed war. Higher participation could affect the close balance between the two political blocs.

Israel’s proportional-representation system turns national vote shares into Knesset seats for party lists. Voters do not choose individual parliamentary candidates. Instead, they support a party list, and the parties that clear the electoral threshold receive seats broadly reflecting their national support.

The key mechanism is the 3.25 per cent threshold. A party must reach that share of the national vote to secure Knesset seats. Once the votes are counted, qualifying parties receive seats according to the proportional system. Because about a dozen parties are thought to have a chance of crossing the threshold, small changes in support can affect the final seat allocation.

This system can make the result difficult to interpret. A party may win votes but fail to pass the threshold, leaving it without seats. Meanwhile, several parties can combine after the election to form a government. The final political question is therefore not simply who wins the most votes, but which coalition can reach 61 seats.

A small party can determine who governs because Israel’s parliament is elected proportionally and governments are built through coalitions. No single party has ever won an outright majority, so the largest party still needs partners. If a smaller party holds seats that take a bloc to 61, it can become a decisive coalition partner.

For example, several parties may together approach the majority but fall short by a handful of seats. A smaller party that crosses the 3.25 per cent threshold could supply those missing seats. Its leaders can then negotiate over whether to support Netanyahu’s bloc or the opposing bloc. The article calls such parties potential kingmakers because every Knesset seat counts.

This makes the final tally especially important. A party need not win a large share of the national vote to have influence. Its seats may decide which candidate receives the president’s nomination and which policy agreements are made during coalition talks. Negotiations can last weeks before a government emerges.

A bloc falling short of 61 seats does not automatically produce a winner. It means the parties must negotiate with potential partners to assemble a governing coalition. The largest party may have an advantage, but the decisive factor is which candidate can attract enough parliamentary support.

After the final tally, President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders. He then nominates the person he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That nominee has up to 42 days to complete the task. Smaller parties can use their seats to negotiate support and become kingmakers during this process.

If the nominee fails, other candidates can receive an opportunity. If no government can be formed, another election is called. Until then, the existing cabinet remains as a caretaker government. The article therefore presents election night as only the start of the governing process, especially when the blocs are closely matched.

The Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, fundamentally raised the stakes of this election. The vote is Israel’s first national election since the attack, which shook the country and plunged the Middle East into turmoil. The campaign is therefore taking place under the shadow of security fears and a continuing regional crisis.

The possibility of renewed war with Iran dominated the final days. Reports approved by the military censor alleged that Netanyahu pressured his military chief to provoke a confrontation with Iran, though Defence Minister Israel Katz denied them. Donald Trump also said he was deciding whether to make a deal with Iran or finish it off. Netanyahu posted an AI-generated nuclear-cloud image over Tel Aviv.

These developments made security and Netanyahu’s leadership central political issues. They also intensified scrutiny of his decisions and the defence establishment. The close contest means voters’ responses to the attack, the regional danger and Netanyahu’s handling of them could shape coalition negotiations and Israel’s next government.