Israelis head to polls as voting begins in pivotal Knesset election

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament. Israelis elect its members in a nationwide vote. The result decides how many seats each party receives and shapes who can seek to lead the government.

This election includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition and an opposition bloc led in recent polling by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The Knesset has 120 seats, so controlling at least 61 is central to forming a government.

The election matters because neither major bloc appears likely to reach 61 seats alone. Voters are choosing not only parties, but also the balance of power among Netanyahu, the opposition, and Arab parties. Official results will be finalized in the days after voting ends.

The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his sitting coalition against an opposition bloc seeking to replace him. Within that opposition, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party led Netanyahu’s Likud in most recent polling.

The final Channel 12 poll projected 22 seats for Yashar, 19 for Likud, and 14 for B’Yachad, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 50 seats, while the opposition bloc was projected to win 56. Arab parties were projected to win 16 seats combined.

These figures show why the election remains uncertain. Neither main bloc was projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. The final government could therefore depend on smaller parties crossing the electoral threshold and on whether Arab parties have any role in coalition negotiations.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats. A government needs the support of at least 61 members to hold a majority. That number gives a governing coalition enough votes to pass measures and survive parliamentary challenges.

The final Channel 12 poll projected 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 56 for the opposition bloc. Neither figure reaches 61. The opposition would be five seats short, while Netanyahu’s bloc would be 11 seats short.

The gap makes coalition bargaining essential after the vote. Arab parties were projected to hold 16 seats together, while smaller parties were fighting to cross the electoral threshold. Their results could decide whether either major bloc can assemble a government, even if it leads the initial seat count.

A government needs support from at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members. The poll gave Netanyahu’s bloc 50 seats and the opposition bloc 56. Both therefore fell short and would need partners to reach a majority.

The Arab parties were projected to win 16 seats combined. Numerically, that is more than enough to close either bloc’s gap. Yet most opposition party leaders pledged not to form a government with Arab parties, arguing that such a coalition would not be viable after the October 7 attacks.

That political refusal narrows the available coalition options. The major blocs may need smaller non-Arab parties, a different alignment, or further negotiations. As a result, winning the most seats may not automatically produce a governing majority.

Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold is the minimum share of valid votes a party must receive to enter the Knesset. Parties below that line receive no seats, even if they attract many voters. The required number of votes changes with turnout.

The Taub Center estimated that at 70% turnout, similar to 2022, a party would need 165,635 votes to cross the threshold. If turnout rises, the number of votes needed also rises. That can make entry harder for smaller parties.

The effect can be decisive in a close election. Supporters of Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party or Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics party could determine whether their parties win seats. If a party fails, its votes do not produce representation, and the resulting seat distribution can alter both blocs’ coalition prospects.

These elections are the first since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. The attack and the ensuing war changed the political landscape and moved security concerns to the forefront. The article identifies three years of war and a severe IDF manpower crisis as major pressures.

Voters are also confronting contentious legislation on haredi, or ultra-Orthodox, conscription. The military’s staffing needs make that debate especially important. Opposition parties are calling for a state commission of inquiry into government failures surrounding the attack, while arguing that Netanyahu should be held accountable.

Traditional issues have moved further into the background. The establishment of a Palestinian state is less prominent, and most parties oppose Palestinian statehood. The election will therefore test not only Netanyahu’s leadership, but also public views on security, military burdens, and responsibility for October 7.

Israel’s proportional representation system distributes Knesset seats among parties according to their share of the vote. This allows several parties to win representation, but it also makes a single-party majority unlikely. Parties must therefore combine their seats to govern.

The election projections show the mechanism clearly. Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 50 seats, and the opposition bloc 56, both below the 61-seat majority. Arab parties were projected to hold 16 seats, while smaller parties could affect the final balance by crossing or missing the 3.25% threshold.

After votes are counted, the bloc able to gather at least 61 supporters has the strongest path to forming a government. That may require agreements among ideologically different parties. If negotiations fail, the largest bloc may still be unable to govern alone.