Cyclone Arnab LIVE tracker: Landfall likely close to Yanam; storm's expected wind speed revised by IMD

Cyclone Arnab is a rotating tropical storm that intensified over the westcentral Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department, or IMD, classified it as a “very severe cyclonic storm.” This matters because the label signals a highly dangerous system requiring close monitoring, warnings and preparation along the coast.

The storm strengthened from a deep depression into a cyclone on Monday, then became severe and very severe. The latest forecast gave it maximum sustained winds of 125–135 kmph, with gusts up to 150 kmph. These figures show the storm’s sustained strength and its stronger short bursts.

Arnab was expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28. Its forecast intensity had increased from an earlier estimate of 115–125 kmph sustained winds and gusts up to 140 kmph, raising the potential risk to communities and infrastructure.

Landfall was expected along the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam. This corridor matters because it identifies the section of coastline where the storm’s centre was forecast to cross from sea to land. Authorities and residents there could use the forecast to prepare.

The IMD placed Arnab 220 kilometres south-southeast of Visakhapatnam in its 12:20 pm Tuesday bulletin. It also placed the storm 410 kilometres east of Bapatla and 240 kilometres east-southeast of Kakinada. These changing distances showed the system approaching the Andhra coast.

Bapatla and Visakhapatnam mark the expected limits of the landfall zone, while Yanam is near the projected crossing area. The storm was forecast to move west-northwestwards until Tuesday evening, then northwestwards, crossing by the forenoon of October 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm.

The latest forecast described Arnab as capable of maximum sustained winds of 125–135 kmph, with gusts reaching 150 kmph. Sustained wind is the storm’s continuing wind strength, while a gust is a shorter, stronger burst. Both measurements help communicate the danger to coastal areas.

The earlier forecast was lower. It predicted sustained winds of 115–125 kmph and gusts up to 140 kmph during the expected landfall. The updated forecast therefore increased the top sustained-wind estimate by 10 kmph and the gust estimate by 10 kmph.

This revision showed that Arnab had gained intensity as it approached the Andhra Pradesh coast. The IMD’s latest bulletin expected landfall by the forenoon of October 28, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam. The higher forecast supported stronger warnings and more urgent preparation along the coast.

Landfall is when the centre of a tropical cyclone crosses the coastline and moves onto land. It matters because the storm’s strongest conditions often affect the landfall zone, but the crossing point does not mark the full area of danger. Forecast warnings therefore cover a wider coastal region.

For Arnab, the IMD forecast a crossing between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam. Even before landfall, the Disaster Management Authority warned of coastal winds reaching 90–100 kmph. During landfall, winds could rise to 115–125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph in an earlier forecast.

A cyclone’s rain, wind and coastal impacts can extend outward from its centre. Outer rainbands and strong winds can affect nearby districts, while rough seas and coastal flooding can threaten areas away from the exact crossing point. Conditions can also remain dangerous as the system moves inland.

Arnab’s forecast winds could damage buildings, uproot trees, break power lines and send loose objects flying. People outdoors, especially near the coast, could face serious injury. The threat matters because sustained winds of 125–135 kmph can continue for long periods, while gusts up to 150 kmph can create sudden, stronger impacts.

Transport could be disrupted by fallen trees, debris, damaged roads and poor visibility. Strong coastal winds can make travel unsafe and affect port or marine activity. Homes with weak roofs or structures may be especially vulnerable. The article’s Disaster Management Authority warning placed coastal winds at 90–100 kmph before the stronger landfall conditions.

Coastal communities would need to follow official warnings and prepare for rapidly worsening weather. The forecast placed landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by October 28. Because winds and other effects spread beyond the centre, nearby areas could also experience dangerous conditions.

The India Meteorological Department tracks a cyclone by issuing regular bulletins that record its position, movement, intensity and expected path. These updates help show whether the storm is approaching land, changing direction or strengthening. The article also points readers to satellite imagery and official weather bulletins for live monitoring.

In one Tuesday bulletin, the IMD located Arnab 220 kilometres south-southeast of Visakhapatnam at 8:30 am. It said the storm was likely to move west-northwestwards until evening, then northwestwards. Earlier, it reported that the storm had moved nearly westwards at 22 kmph during six hours.

The IMD revised the wind forecast after Arnab gained intensity. Its earlier estimate was 115–125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph. The newer estimate was 125–135 kmph, with gusts up to 150 kmph. It continued to forecast landfall by the forenoon of October 28.

A tropical cyclone generally begins over warm ocean water, where evaporation adds heat and moisture to the air. When moist air rises, it cools and releases heat, which can make more air rise. This lowers pressure near the surface and helps draw in additional warm, moist air from surrounding areas.

Earth’s rotation turns the inward-moving air, creating a broad rotating circulation rather than a straight rush toward the centre. If the storm’s thunderstorms remain organized and upper-level winds do not tear them apart, the circulation can strengthen. Lower pressure, stronger winds and more rising air then reinforce one another.

Arnab’s development followed this general pattern, although the article does not detail ocean temperatures or pressure readings. It records that a deep depression became a cyclone early Monday, then intensified into severe and very severe stages. By Tuesday, the IMD had raised its forecast wind speeds as the storm strengthened.