‘A national emergency’: Bay Area Israelis fly home to vote in pivotal election

Israeli expatriates from the Bay Area flew to Israel because they believed this election was unusually consequential. They wanted to influence Israel’s direction during what several passengers described as a national emergency. Israel does not generally allow citizens abroad to vote remotely, so returning home was necessary.

Ayelet Frank, who has lived in California since 1984, spent only two days in Israel to cast her ballot. Udi Pardo, who left Israel in 1983, said he had never flown home for an election before. He felt he “can’t not go” because Israel was on the verge of an abyss.

The flight carried 271 passengers and arrived less than 24 hours before polls opened. Many passengers supported parties opposing Netanyahu’s government. Their return could matter because the Israel Democracy Institute estimated overseas voters might influence nearly two Knesset seats in a tight race.

This election was pivotal because it followed the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the war that followed. Passengers and analysts described the stakes as unusually high. Ayelet Frank called it a choice between Israel’s destruction and rebuilding the country positively, while another voter warned that liberal democracy could disappear.

The election was also seen as a direct judgment on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud-led government. Many overseas voters on the San Francisco flight said Israel needed governmental change. Those who named preferred candidates supported Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, or other parties opposed to Netanyahu.

That opposition made the election a referendum in practical terms. The result could determine whether Netanyahu’s governing bloc remained in power or whether rival parties could build a new coalition. The government’s reported efforts to impede Fly & Vote also reinforced the sense that overseas participation might affect the outcome.

The Knesset is Israel’s national legislature, or parliament. Israelis vote for parties, and those parties receive Knesset seats according to their share of the vote. The legislature matters because the government must rely on support from enough elected members to pass laws and remain politically viable.

In practice, no single party may have enough seats to govern alone. Parties therefore negotiate after the election and form a coalition. The leader who can assemble a coalition with sufficient Knesset backing becomes prime minister and leads the government. This is standard parliamentary practice; the article itself focuses on seats and coalition-changing possibilities rather than explaining the full process.

That mechanism makes close elections especially important. The Israel Democracy Institute said overseas voters could swing nearly two Knesset seats. Those seats could strengthen Netanyahu’s bloc, help opposition parties, or change which combination of parties can form the next government.

Most Israelis living abroad had to return to Israel because the country does not allow ordinary absentee voting. Citizens overseas generally cannot cast ballots by mail or through another remote system. The main exceptions are diplomats and other state employees officially posted abroad.

That rule created a demanding choice for expatriates. They had to buy flights, arrange brief stays, and appear at polling places in Israel. Ayelet Frank traveled from Redwood City for only two days. Other passengers also spent thousands of dollars, showing how strongly they felt about participating.

The rule helps explain why the election produced such visible travel from abroad. Fly & Vote estimated that 67,000 Israelis overseas might return, although it cautioned that this came from a voluntary survey and registration data, not arrival counts. Because so many travelers opposed Netanyahu’s government, their in-person participation could affect the result.

The expected overseas voting wave was large by the article’s account. Fly & Vote estimated that 67,000 Israelis abroad might travel home to participate in the Oct. 27 election. The estimate came from a voluntary August survey and the group’s registration data, not from a direct count of arrivals.

The scale was striking because Israel requires most citizens abroad to vote in person. Travelers therefore had to pay for flights and short stays. El Al flight 48 from San Francisco carried 271 passengers and landed less than 24 hours before polls opened. Many passengers were Israeli expatriates returning specifically to vote.

The Israel Democracy Institute said overseas voters could swing nearly two Knesset seats in a tight race. That does not mean all 67,000 votes would move the same way. It means their combined participation could change the distribution of seats enough to affect which parties can build a governing coalition.

A relatively small voting shift can have an outsized effect when competing blocs are close. Overseas Israelis do not directly choose a prime minister in this parliamentary election. Their votes first affect how many Knesset seats each party receives, which then affects the possible governing coalitions.

For example, if returning voters mostly support parties opposed to Netanyahu, those parties could gain seats while his bloc loses relative strength. Ayelet Frank, Udi Pardo, and other passengers said they wanted governmental change. The Israel Democracy Institute said overseas voters might swing nearly two seats, enough to alter coalition mathematics.

The final consequence depends on the full result and on post-election negotiations. Two seats could give one bloc a majority, deny another bloc enough support, or make a smaller party more important to coalition talks. Thus, even a narrow change in seat totals could determine who leads the next government.

A legislature is central to a parliamentary democracy because the government depends on elected lawmakers. Control of the Knesset gives a party or coalition the ability to support legislation and sustain the governing leadership. Without enough parliamentary backing, a government may struggle to act or remain in office.

Israel’s system makes coalition building especially important. Parties that do not win enough seats alone negotiate with other parties. The coalition that can assemble sufficient Knesset support becomes the governing bloc. This mechanism explains why the article treats a possible shift of nearly two seats as politically significant, even though it represents only part of the legislature.

Control of the legislature can therefore redirect national policy. In this election, passengers linked the choice to Israel’s existence, democracy, and governmental sanity. The immediate implication was a possible change from Netanyahu’s government to an opposition-led coalition, depending on the final seat distribution and negotiations.