Israel elections: Polls open as Netanyahu attempts to fend off challenge from Gadi Eisenkot

Israel’s election is choosing a new Knesset and determining who can form the country’s 38th government. It is the first parliamentary vote since the 7 October 2023 attacks. Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to remain prime minister, but his right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition may not reach the 61 seats needed for a majority.

Gadi Eisenkot has become the main challenger. He is a former military chief and leads the Yashar party. Polls put Yashar ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud, although neither side is expected to win enough seats to govern alone. Netanyahu has been prime minister for more than 19 years across three periods in office.

The result could therefore depend on negotiations after voting ends. Palestinian-led parties may win 14 to 16 seats, but both main camps have ruled out including them in a coalition. Exit polls are expected overnight, with the full count due by 30 October and official results on 4 November.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament. Voters choose representatives to its 120 seats, and those representatives are divided among competing electoral lists. The Knesset matters because a government needs parliamentary support to govern and survive politically.

In this election, 36 lists are competing for the seats. The winning party does not automatically govern. Instead, the election produces a balance of seats, and party leaders must work out which groups can support a governing coalition. A bloc needs 61 seats for a parliamentary majority.

That threshold makes the Knesset central to government formation. Polls put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, but neither wider camp is projected to reach 61 seats alone. Parties may therefore negotiate after the count. Palestinian-led parties could hold 14 to 16 seats, although both main camps have ruled out including them in government.

Israel’s Knesset contains 120 seats. A party bloc needs at least 61 seats to hold a parliamentary majority. That number is important because it marks the point at which a group can command more than half of the chamber and build a government with dependable legislative backing.

The election features 36 electoral lists competing for those seats. Polls suggest Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties could win around 50 seats. Even if that projection is close to the final result, it would leave the bloc about 11 seats below the majority threshold.

Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition is also not projected to reach 61 seats alone. This means the election may not produce a single clear governing winner. After the vote, parties will need to assess their seat totals and negotiate support. The full count is expected by 30 October, with official results due on 4 November.

A result below 61 seats for both main camps would leave no bloc able to govern alone. Israel’s parliamentary system therefore turns the election into a search for partners. Parties with enough seats can negotiate a coalition, offer support, or remain outside government while influencing the balance of power.

The numbers show why this matters. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected at around 50 seats, while Eisenkot’s opposition is also not expected to secure a majority independently. Palestinian-led parties are projected to win 14 to 16 seats. Their combined strength could be large enough to affect which wider camp reaches 61.

There is a clear obstacle: both main camps have ruled out including Palestinian-led parties in a governing coalition. That could make coalition talks difficult and produce an uncertain governing arrangement. Exit polls are expected when voting closes, while the full count and official results will clarify the bargaining position of each party.

Palestinian citizens of Israel could matter because their votes may change the number of seats available to each political camp. Their parties are projected to win a combined 14 to 16 seats, a potentially decisive bloc when neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor Eisenkot’s opposition is expected to reach 61 independently.

Turnout is the key mechanism. Palestinian citizens make up around 18 percent of eligible voters, or approximately 1.17 million people. Pollsters suggest turnout could reach 60 to 70 percent, up from 53 percent in 2022. Higher participation could help Ra’am and the Joint List secure their projected combined total.

Those seats could provide leverage during government formation. However, both main camps have ruled out including Palestinian-led parties in a governing coalition. Their influence may therefore come through the wider seat balance and negotiations, rather than formal membership in the government. High early turnout was reported in Palestinian-majority towns.

Under proportional representation, voters support electoral lists rather than choosing one party that automatically takes every seat. Each list receives Knesset representation broadly related to its share of the vote, subject to the system’s legal rules. This allows several parties to enter parliament and reflects a wider spread of political support.

The election illustrates the result. Thirty-six electoral lists are contesting 120 seats. No single list or projected bloc is expected to win enough seats to reach the 61-seat majority. Seats are therefore divided among Netanyahu’s Likud-led camp, Eisenkot’s opposition, Palestinian-led parties and other lists.

The governing mechanism comes afterward. Parties combine their seats through coalition agreements so that a majority can support a government. Polls project Netanyahu’s bloc at around 50 seats, while Eisenkot’s side also falls short alone. Palestinian-led parties could win 14 to 16 seats, but both main camps have ruled out putting them in a coalition.

In Israel’s proportional system, the largest party receives the most seats but does not automatically receive a majority. The Knesset has 120 seats, so a party or bloc needs 61 to control more than half. A first-place party can therefore still lack enough support to govern alone.

For example, polls put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Yet the wider opposition is not projected to reach 61 seats on its own. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected at around 50, also below the threshold. The remaining seats are held by other parties and lists.

The gap must be addressed through coalition building. A first-place party may seek agreements with smaller parties, while those parties gain influence over government formation. In this election, Palestinian-led parties could hold 14 to 16 seats, although both main camps have ruled out including them. The final outcome will depend on the seat count and subsequent negotiations.