Israelis head to polls in first general election since 7 October attacks with no clear favourite

The election is especially significant because it is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023. That attack exposed serious security failures and reshaped Israel’s political debate. Voters are choosing not only between parties, but also between competing explanations of what went wrong and how the country should respond.

Benjamin Netanyahu has campaigned on his security record and relationship with US President Donald Trump. Gadi Eisenkot has promised an independent state inquiry into the failures surrounding the attack. The current government has resisted such an inquiry, making accountability a central dividing line.

The result could influence Israel’s leadership and its policies during the continuing war in Gaza. However, replacing Netanyahu would not automatically end policies criticized in Europe. Eisenkot has opposed Palestinian statehood, although he has promised action against violent settlers. Coalition talks may determine what changes are possible.

The Knesset is Israel’s national legislature, made up of 120 seats. Its members represent the parties elected by voters. The 61-seat threshold matters because it is more than half of the chamber. A government holding that many seats can usually pass legislation and survive confidence votes with support from its parliamentary majority.

For example, if one party won 60 seats, it would still be one seat short. It would need an agreement with another party or independent members to reach 61. That agreement could involve shared policies, ministerial positions, or other political commitments, although the article does not specify such terms.

No party is expected to come close to 61 seats in this election. That means the election’s winner may still need partners to govern. If negotiations fail, Israel could face prolonged talks and continued uncertainty over who can form a stable administration.

Israel has about 7.3 million eligible voters in this election. That is the overall electorate described in the article. It includes hundreds of thousands of people casting a ballot for the first time, giving the vote a large group of newly participating citizens whose political preferences may matter in a tight contest.

The article does not provide an exact number for first-time voters. It only says the group numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad are also thought to have flown home to vote, showing the election’s importance to citizens outside the country.

The final surveys put Netanyahu and Eisenkot neck and neck. In such a close race, turnout and the choices of newer voters could affect which parties gain seats. However, the article does not identify how first-time voters are divided politically or how many ultimately vote.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot are central because they lead the two main competing political camps. Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having held office on and off for more than 19 years. Eisenkot is a former military chief and political newcomer who leads the Yashar party and a broad informal bloc.

Their campaigns offer sharply different arguments. Netanyahu emphasizes his security record and close relationship with US President Donald Trump. Eisenkot promises an independent state inquiry into the security failures surrounding the 7 October attack. He also leads a bloc extending from the right to the centre-left, giving the race a broad alliance structure.

The final surveys show the two candidates neck and neck. That makes their personal leadership records unusually important. Yet neither may be able to govern alone, because no party is expected to reach the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority.

A party that falls short of 61 seats cannot command a majority in the 120-member Knesset by itself. The leading party must therefore seek agreements with other parties. Those negotiations decide whether a candidate can assemble enough parliamentary support to form a government and govern effectively.

In this election, no party is expected to come close to the 61-seat threshold. The likely mechanism is coalition building: parties combine their seats and agree on a shared governing arrangement. The article does not detail the possible terms, but it indicates that Arab-majority parties could become important if the result is very close.

Final results could take days, followed by negotiations lasting weeks or months. Until an agreement is reached, the identity and policy direction of the next government remain uncertain. A replacement for Netanyahu would also not necessarily end the policies drawing criticism from European governments.

Arab-majority parties could become kingmakers because a narrowly divided Knesset may leave the leading candidates short of 61 seats. In that situation, even a smaller group can provide the additional seats needed to create a parliamentary majority. Their influence would come from the balance of seats, not necessarily from leading the election.

The article says these parties represent around 21% of Israel’s population. If their elected representatives hold enough Knesset seats, Netanyahu or Eisenkot might need their support to form a government. That support could become decisive if other coalition combinations cannot reach 61 seats, although the article does not say how many seats they will win.

Neither leading candidate has publicly said he would partner with Arab-majority parties. Their possible kingmaker role is therefore conditional, not guaranteed. It depends on the final result, the distribution of seats, and whether other parties can form a majority without them.

Under Israel’s proportional representation system, parties gain Knesset seats broadly according to their share of the vote. This differs from a system where one candidate or party can win most districts directly. When many parties divide the vote, no single group may reach 61 of the 120 seats, making coalition governments common.

The key mechanism is arithmetic. A party winning 40 seats cannot govern alone, so it must join with parties holding enough additional seats to reach 61. A smaller party may hold only a modest number of seats, but those seats can complete a majority. That gives the smaller party leverage in negotiations over national policies and governing arrangements.

The article reports that no party is expected to approach 61 seats in this election. Coalition talks could therefore last weeks or months. Arab-majority parties could become especially influential if their seats are needed by either leading camp, despite neither candidate publicly committing to work with them.