Weak monsoon, crop failures, force farmers to cut spending

India’s southwest monsoon ended 12.6% below normal, its fourth-lowest result since 2001. Rainfall was especially poor in June and August. The shortage mattered because crops need water during planting and growth, while many farms depend mainly on rain. Weak rainfall left soil dry and reservoirs depleted.

Farmer Ramesh Valvi in Maharashtra invested ₹40,000 in maize and tur crops. When the rains stopped, both crops failed. He applied fertiliser only twice instead of his usual four times, and pests attacked the weakened crop. He now expects only to break even, with little money left for a tractor or another harvest.

The damage reaches beyond the lost kharif crop. More than 37% of districts had severe or extreme soil-moisture deficits, while reservoir storage fell to 68.6% of capacity on October 15. Without water, many farmers may not plant rabi crops, causing another season of weak farm income and reduced rural spending.

The southwest monsoon is the seasonal rain system that brings most of India’s annual rainfall. The article says it delivers 70% of the country’s rains. That makes it central to farming, especially in areas where fields depend on rainfall rather than dependable irrigation. Its timing and strength affect whether farmers can plant, nourish and harvest crops.

This year, the monsoon started weak. June rainfall was 39.8% below the long-period average, July brought brief relief, and August recorded a 16.3% deficit. The monsoon eventually ended with a 12.6% shortfall. These gaps reduced water available to crops and limited fertiliser use on farms such as Ramesh Valvi’s.

A weak monsoon also reduces water stored for later months. Reservoirs held only 68.6% of capacity on October 15, compared with 90.8% a year earlier. That threatens winter sowing, farm income and rural purchases, including fertiliser and machinery.

The rainfall shortage was severe and uneven. June was 39.8% below the long-period average, August was 16.3% below normal, and the full monsoon ended 12.6% below normal. East and northeast India received 25% less rain, southern peninsular India 24% less, and northwest India 6% less. Seventeen subdivisions, covering 42% of India, recorded deficient rainfall.

The effects were sharp in farming states. Bihar had a 32% deficit, Punjab 41%, Marathwada 39% and Kerala 28%. Poor rainfall reduced soil moisture just as farmers prepared for the rabi season. Rain-fed farms faced the greatest risk because they had fewer alternatives to rainfall.

Reservoirs also fell far below last year’s level. Storage was 68.6% of capacity on October 15, against 90.8% a year earlier. That is 22.2 percentage points lower. It was also below the 10-year average of 82.1%, threatening future sowing and farm income.

A poor monsoon cuts farm income first, then weakens spending. Farmers who lose crops cannot easily pay for fertiliser, machinery or household goods. They may preserve cash for food and other essentials instead. This matters beyond individual farms because rural demand supports sales of agricultural inputs, tractors and consumer products.

Ramesh Valvi normally applies fertiliser four times during a crop cycle. This year, he managed only two applications because there was not enough water. The fertiliser did not spread properly into the soil, and pests attacked his crop. Nationally, complex fertiliser sales fell by more than 20% in April-September from a year earlier, while urea sales also declined.

Tractor demand is also softening. September retail sales fell 12.58% month-on-month to 76,906 units, though they remained 13.75% above a year earlier. Valvi postponed his tractor purchase and will use his savings for food. Barclays expects crop losses to delay some purchases further in early 2027.

Kharif crops are crops grown during the monsoon season, while rabi crops are planted for the winter season. The article links weak monsoon rain directly to the kharif harvest and then to winter sowing. A successful kharif season can provide income for families and help finance inputs for the next crop. A failed one removes that financial cushion.

Ramesh Valvi’s maize and tur crops failed after rain stopped. He lost the ₹40,000 invested in his land and expects to use his savings to feed his family instead of buying a tractor. He also sees little chance of sowing a rabi crop because there is not enough water even for drinking.

The same problem could affect many farmers. The weak monsoon left inadequate soil moisture, while reservoirs fell to 68.6% of capacity. If farmers cannot plant rabi crops, they may face another season with little or no farm income. That would further weaken fertiliser purchases, machinery demand and rural spending.

Rain-fed farmers rely mainly on rainfall to provide the water their crops need. When the monsoon weakens, their fields can lose soil moisture quickly. They may be unable to apply fertiliser properly, control crop stress or plant a following season. The article identifies rain-fed areas as particularly vulnerable because they have less access to irrigation.

Ramesh Valvi’s farm shows the chain clearly. After rain stopped, his maize and tur crops failed. He could apply fertiliser only twice rather than four times because water was scarce. The fertiliser failed to spread properly, and pests attacked the crop. He also doubts that he can plant a rabi crop.

Irrigation cannot remove every risk, but the article indicates that access to it gives farmers more water options. Rain-fed farmers face the full effect of dry weather, especially when reservoirs are low. With storage at 68.6% of capacity, many may lose both the kharif harvest and the chance to sow rabi crops.

Monsoon rainfall is the starting point of a chain in India’s farm economy. Rain puts moisture into the soil and adds water to reservoirs. Soil moisture supports crop growth, while reservoir water can help sustain farming after the monsoon. Healthy harvests then provide farm income, which pays for food, fertiliser, machinery and other purchases.

This season, rainfall fell 12.6% below normal. More than 37% of districts had severe or extreme soil-moisture deficits, and reservoir storage dropped to 68.6% of capacity on October 15. Ramesh Valvi’s crops failed, fertiliser use fell, and savings meant for a tractor were redirected to feeding his family.

The weakened chain could continue into winter. Low soil moisture and reservoir levels may prevent rabi sowing, especially in rain-fed areas. That would reduce future farm income and keep spending subdued. The article also points to weaker fertiliser sales and delayed tractor purchases as early signs of the broader rural impact.