Why Jeffries and other top Democrats are heading to red states

Leading Democrats are campaigning in conservative states because Republicans redrew several districts to improve their House prospects. Democrats now see possible weaknesses in those maps. Winning even a few of these seats could reduce or erase the GOP's expected gains and help Democrats regain the House majority.

Texas offers the clearest example. Republicans initially hoped to gain five House seats through their new map, but Johnny Garcia is running closely in a district Donald Trump won by 10 points. In Florida, a Republican super PAC stopped spending in Jared Moskowitz's race after the district was made redder. Ohio Democrats also feel optimistic about Marcy Kaptur's redrawn seat and are supporting Emilia Sykes.

The campaigns also help party leaders raise money and energize voters. Hakeem Jeffries visited San Antonio with Garcia, while Suzan DelBene planned Ohio appearances. These races will show whether Trump's redistricting strategy actually strengthens Republicans.

Texas Republicans initially dreamed of gaining five House seats through their new congressional map. That goal explains why the map matters so much in the national fight for control of the chamber. If the plan worked, it could have given Republicans a major advantage before voters cast their ballots.

The map changed districts in ways intended to make several seats more favorable to Republicans. Yet Democrats say the strategy is showing cracks. Johnny Garcia is running neck-and-neck in the 35th Congressional District, even though Donald Trump carried it by 10 points in 2024. Two Democratic incumbents are also performing more strongly than expected in conservative Texas districts.

The final result could undercut the map's intended effect. Democrats believe Trump's falling approval and Hispanic backlash against aggressive immigration enforcement may help them. Republicans still believe they can win the redrawn Texas districts, so the contests remain competitive.

Gerrymandering means drawing electoral district boundaries to benefit a political party. Mapmakers can shape districts by concentrating opposing voters into a few seats or spreading them across many seats. That changes which candidates have a realistic path to victory, even without changing anyone's vote.

For example, Texas Republicans redrew congressional districts while hoping to gain five House seats. A district can become safer when its boundaries include more voters who usually support the favored party. The same process can make another district more competitive by adding voters with different political preferences. The article calls the Republican effort an attempt to “rig” the midterm elections through the map.

The strategy is not guaranteed to work. Democrats say changing political conditions may overcome the new boundaries. Trump’s approval is sagging, and Democrats expect Hispanic voters’ reaction to aggressive immigration enforcement to hurt Republicans. Jared Moskowitz’s Florida race and Ohio contests show similar uncertainty.

Presidential results do not automatically decide every congressional race. District voters may respond differently to a local candidate, local concerns, or changing national conditions. A candidate can also appeal to voters who supported the other party for president, especially in a district with a strong personal campaign.

Johnny Garcia is presenting himself as a centrist in Texas's 35th Congressional District. He criticized the Biden administration’s border policies and said it “got it wrong,” while also describing problems with Trump’s heavy-handed enforcement. Garcia focuses on cost-of-living concerns and says residents are fed up. His race is neck-and-neck, although Trump won the district by 10 points in 2024.

Democrats also expect Trump’s sagging approval numbers and Hispanic voters’ backlash to aggressive immigration enforcement to weaken Republicans. Garcia’s campaign shows how a redrawn district can remain competitive. Republicans still believe their nominee, Carlos De La Cruz, can win, so the outcome is unresolved.

If Democrats win several newly redrawn districts, Republicans may fail to gain the seats they expected. The result could be especially important in a closely divided House, where a handful of victories can determine which party controls the chamber. Democratic candidates describe this possibility as turning the GOP’s redistricting plan into a “dummy-mander.”

Texas is central to that risk. Republicans initially hoped to gain five House seats there, but Johnny Garcia is competitive in a district Trump won by 10 points. Democrats also see opportunities in Florida, where a Republican super PAC withdrew from Jared Moskowitz’s race, and Ohio, where they are bullish about Marcy Kaptur’s chances after redistricting.

A Democratic sweep of these vulnerable seats could help Democrats regain the majority. It could also give Jeffries more reliable support as speaker. Republicans still expect to win some redrawn districts, so the scale of any reversal remains uncertain.

Winning conservative districts matters personally to Hakeem Jeffries because it could produce a Democratic majority that is easier for him to govern. Jeffries may face pressure from a progressive base that wants to challenge his leadership. Members from competitive districts could provide dependable support when he seeks the speakership and manages the caucus.

Johnny Garcia has publicly offered that support. He said he would stand with Jeffries when Jeffries is sworn in as speaker. Garcia also invited Jeffries to San Antonio, where the Democratic leader drew attention and helped with fundraising. Garcia views Jeffries as less polarizing than Nancy Pelosi became before the 2018 midterms.

That support could matter beyond the symbolic value of one seat. Jeffries can regain the majority without Garcia, but Garcia’s victory would demonstrate that redistricting failed and add a swing-seat member who says he will back the leader. Other candidates in competitive districts also have no problem supporting Jeffries.

Congressional districts are geographic areas drawn within states, with each district choosing one House representative. After population changes and elections, states redraw their boundaries through redistricting. The boundaries determine which communities and voters are grouped into each seat. Because House control depends on seat totals, boundary changes can affect the majority.

A mapmaker can place more likely Democratic voters together in a few districts or distribute them across many districts. The first approach may create heavily Democratic seats while leaving other districts more Republican. The second can make Democrats competitive in more places. Texas Republicans used a new map while seeking five additional House seats, showing how redistricting can be used as a political strategy.

Overall voter preferences may shift only slightly, yet the seat distribution can change sharply. The article shows why the strategy can backfire: Garcia is competitive in a district Trump won by 10 points, while Democrats also see openings in Florida and Ohio. Those results could decide House control.