Trump allies fall in two elections as Netanyahu faces next test

The weekend brought setbacks for two Trump-friendly populist forces. In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son and political heir of Jair Bolsonaro, lost his challenge to leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In Serbia, a student-led opposition movement toppled the right-wing party of long-serving leader Aleksandar Vučić.

The results mattered because both defeated movements were tied to leaders who had cultivated relationships with Trump’s circle. Flávio had met Trump earlier this year, while Vučić courted Donald Trump Jr. and called Trump a “kindred spirit.” Unlike Flávio, Vučić conceded defeat.

The setbacks show that opposition forces can still defeat entrenched populist movements. They also interrupted a run of conservative victories in Latin America and echoed Hungary’s removal of Viktor Orbán, though right-wing parties are still gaining ground in France and Germany.

A right-wing populist is a leader who pairs conservative or nationalist politics with a direct appeal to ordinary people against opponents, institutions, or established elites. Populists often present themselves as the authentic voice of the nation. “Right-wing” describes the political direction of their movements, while “populist” describes how they seek support and frame conflict.

The article places Jair Bolsonaro, Aleksandar Vučić, Viktor Orbán, and Benjamin Netanyahu within a broader right-wing trend. Bolsonaro and Vučić are described through populist or strongman politics. Orbán is called a deeply entrenched populist leader. Netanyahu is identified as a Trump ally and faces an election shaped by security concerns.

Their political situations differ. Orbán and Vučić suffered setbacks, Bolsonaro’s son lost his challenge, and Netanyahu faced a tight contest. Together, these cases show that right-wing populism can remain influential while individual leaders or parties lose power.

The political trend being tested was broad, not limited to one election. Before Brazil’s result, right-wing and Trump-backed candidates had celebrated seven straight conservative wins in Latin America. Brazil’s election therefore threatened to break a visible regional streak and became a measure of whether that momentum could continue.

The article also shows how long some leaders had dominated politics. Viktor Orbán had governed Hungary for 16 years before being ousted in April. Benjamin Netanyahu had served as Israel’s prime minister for about 19 years across nonconsecutive terms. Aleksandar Vučić was described as a long-serving strongman, although the article does not give his exact time in power.

These figures explain why the elections mattered beyond individual races. A loss can weaken a movement built around one leader, while a victory can reinforce claims of durable public support. The trend remains mixed, with setbacks in Serbia and Hungary but gains for the far right in France and Germany.

Brazil mattered because it is Latin America’s largest economy and because the election tested Trump’s political influence in the region. A Flávio Bolsonaro victory could have given Trump a close ally at the head of a major country. Instead, Lula da Silva won, ending a streak of seven straight conservative victories described in the article.

Trump did not formally endorse Flávio, but he met him earlier this year and imposed significant tariffs on Brazil while protesting the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio himself framed the choice as having either “the most powerful ally in the hemisphere” or an “antagonist,” presenting the election as a major foreign-policy divide.

The result does not erase Trump-aligned momentum elsewhere. Trump-backed or Trump-endorsed candidates had won in Colombia, Honduras, and Chile. Still, Brazil showed that opposition forces could stop the streak and that Trump’s relationships do not guarantee victory abroad.

After losing Brazil’s 2022 election, Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of plotting a coup to overturn the result. He is serving a 27-year sentence. Trump has called the prosecution a “WITCH HUNT,” turning Bolsonaro’s legal case into another point of connection between the former Brazilian president and Trump.

That history gives Flávio Bolsonaro’s response added meaning. After losing to Lula, the younger Bolsonaro refused to concede and called for the results to be annulled, according to translations cited in the article. The response did not itself establish a coup attempt, but it repeated the broader pattern of challenging an unfavorable election result.

The episode makes Brazil’s vote a test of democratic acceptance as well as political influence. It also highlights the risk that a leader’s movement can treat defeat as illegitimate. Whether the younger Bolsonaro can preserve his father’s movement remains unresolved in the article.

A Netanyahu defeat could change both Israel’s leadership and the direction of its security policy. The election was described as a referendum on the security failure of October 7, 2023, when around 1,200 people were killed. Whoever governs Israel could influence Trump’s next moves in the Middle East.

The key mechanism is the link between domestic leadership and wartime decisions. The next government could help determine whether to escalate the war in Iran. Netanyahu had highlighted Trump’s endorsement and their “friendship” on the eve of voting, while competing with former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.

The contest was expected to be tight, so the result would test Trump’s foreign influence again. A Netanyahu victory could strengthen the political value of Trump’s backing. A defeat could show that even a prominent endorsement and close relationship cannot secure an ally’s survival or guarantee continuity in security policy.

Elections determine whether a populist movement converts public anger into power. Party organization matters because a leader needs a durable political vehicle, candidates, and supporters. Public reactions matter too. Security failures, unrest, or economic pressure can damage incumbents, while a strong campaign can turn those problems into support for a challenger.

The article gives several examples. Serbia’s student-led opposition movement toppled Vučić’s ruling party. In France, Marine Le Pen used nationwide unrest to promote a tough-on-crime, anti-migrant agenda. In Israel, the October 7 security failure became a central test of Netanyahu’s leadership. Brazil’s Lula defeated Flávio despite the conservative region-wide streak.

The current picture is mixed rather than settled. Populist forces fell in Serbia and Hungary, but the far right gained ground in France and Germany. These outcomes suggest that organization, voter priorities, and reactions to government performance can shift power even when a movement appears entrenched.