What our final poll before Election Day says about midterms and Trump

The final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows Democrats favored among likely voters in congressional races. Fifty-two percent say they would support the Democratic candidate, compared with 44% for the Republican. That eight-point gap matters because congressional control is at stake one week before Election Day.

The advantage comes from several groups. Independents favor Democrats by 13 points. Democrats also show greater enthusiasm: 71% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. Democratic voters who already cast ballots favor their party 68% to 31%.

The race has changed little during the final month. Among registered voters, Democrats lead by 10 points, although that figure is down from 12 points and within the margin of error. Analysts expect Democrats to have a strong House performance, while the Senate remains much closer.

Midterm elections are nationwide congressional elections held halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters choose members of the House of Representatives and some members of the Senate. They are called “midterms” because they occur between presidential elections.

Control depends on which party wins a majority of seats in each chamber. The House has many separately contested districts, while Senate races are held statewide and only some seats are on the ballot at once. This structure lets voters produce different results in the two chambers.

That possibility matters in the 2026 contest described here. The poll gives Democrats an eight-point advantage among likely voters, and analysts see the House as leaning Democratic. The Senate is less certain. Republican strategist Melik Abdul expects Republicans could keep it, while Democratic strategist Joel Payne sees a slight Democratic advantage.

The poll gives Democrats a clear but not overwhelming advantage among likely voters. Fifty-two percent support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 44% support the Republican. The resulting eight-point lead is important because only one week remains before Election Day.

The parties also differ in motivation. Seventy-one percent of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting. That compares with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. Independents themselves favor Democrats by 13 points, adding to the Democratic edge in the poll.

Early voting may strengthen that advantage. About one in five likely voters has already voted, and those voters favor Democrats 68% to 31%. Republicans are relying more heavily on Election Day: half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person November 3, compared with 31% of Democrats.

More than 30 million ballots had already been cast nationwide when the poll was conducted. The University of Florida Election Lab counted more than 15.1 million mail ballots and 15.5 million in-person votes. About one in five likely voters in the survey said they had already voted.

Early voting can help a party when its supporters participate sooner and at higher rates. In this poll, voters who had already cast ballots favored Democrats 68% to 31%. That means many Democratic votes were already recorded before the final Election Day turnout was known.

Republicans are counting on Election Day to close the gap. Half of Republican likely voters planned to vote in person on November 3, compared with 31% of Democrats. The final result will therefore depend on both the early-vote advantage and which party turns out its remaining supporters.

The poll indicates that many voters are using their congressional ballot to express an opinion about President Donald Trump. Likely voters say by a two-to-one margin that their midterm vote is against him rather than for him. That makes Trump’s standing central to races in which his name is not on the ballot.

Trump has encouraged this focus. He has spent the campaign’s final weeks holding rallies in more than a dozen states and has explicitly said he wants the midterms to be about him. The article describes this as unusual. He has also urged voters to act as though he is running.

This dynamic may benefit Democrats because a negative view of Trump can motivate opposition voters. The survey says Democratic voters are more enthusiastic, and early voters favor Democrats 68% to 31%. Republicans, however, are counting on stronger Election Day turnout to limit the effect.

Presidential approval ratings often influence midterm results because voters use congressional elections to reward or punish the party in the White House. This is a well-established political pattern, though the provided article does not give Trump’s approval rating. A president’s standing can therefore affect races across the country.

The article shows that Trump has made this election especially personal. He has held rallies in more than a dozen states and explicitly wants the midterms to be about him. Likely voters say their ballots are against him rather than for him by a two-to-one margin. Democratic voters also report higher enthusiasm than Republicans.

That combination can shape control of Congress. Democrats lead likely voters 52% to 44%, and early voters favor them 68% to 31%. Analysts view the House as leaning Democratic, while the Senate remains competitive. Republicans hope heavier Election Day voting can offset the broader anti-Trump mood.

The House of Representatives and Senate are the two chambers of Congress. House members are elected from local congressional districts, so control depends on winning a majority of many district races. Senators are elected statewide, and only some Senate seats are contested in any one election.

These different election systems can produce split control. A party may win many House districts without winning enough statewide Senate races. The opposite can also happen. Geography, candidate strength, and which seats are on the ballot all affect the outcome. This explanation uses established congressional knowledge beyond the article’s detailed polling.

The distinction matters in the 2026 contest. Democratic strategist Joel Payne says the House feels fairly settled for Democrats but sees the Senate as closer. He gives Democrats a slight edge overall, while Republican strategist Melik Abdul expects Republicans to retain the Senate by one or two seats.