Netanyahu’s political survival on the line as Israel votes

The election tests Netanyahu’s political survival because voters are deciding whether he should remain prime minister after an exceptionally turbulent period. His leadership is being judged against the October 7, 2023, security failures, wars in Gaza and with Iran, and Israel’s worsening international isolation.

Netanyahu remains a powerful political survivor. He is Israel’s longest-serving leader, with 19 years in office, and has campaigned on wartime leadership and his alliance with US President Donald Trump. But his Likud party faces a close contest with a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot.

Winning the most votes may not settle the result. Netanyahu could again need far-right partners, including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, to reach a governing majority. If neither side can build a coalition, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister until another election next year.

A coalition government is formed when multiple parties agree to govern together and collectively command enough seats in parliament. This matters in Israel because political power depends on assembling support across a fragmented party system, not simply on one party finishing first.

Israel’s parliament has 120 seats, so a governing coalition generally needs support from at least 61 lawmakers. Netanyahu may depend on far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Eisenkot’s alliance also faces difficulty, since he opposes partnering with Arab parties despite the possible importance of Arab lawmakers.

The result is uncertain because both main contenders lack a clear route to a coalition. Smaller parties can therefore become decisive. They may demand policy concessions or choose which larger bloc leads. If negotiations fail, the country may have another election while Netanyahu continues as caretaker.

The political system being contested includes 7.3 million eligible voters and a 120-seat parliament. Those figures show both the national scale of the vote and the limited number of seats that determine who can attempt to form a government.

The Israeli Central Election Committee said around 330,000 eligible voters would be casting ballots for the first time. Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. and were scheduled to close at 10 p.m. Voters are choosing among parties and alliances rather than directly selecting a prime minister.

The seat total makes coalition arithmetic central. A party or bloc must gather enough parliamentary support to govern, often by negotiating with smaller parties. Even a close result can produce a very different government depending on which groups cooperate. If no coalition emerges, another election may follow next year.

If neither Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot can assemble a governing coalition, the election will not immediately produce a new government. Israel’s fragmented political system can leave the existing leadership temporarily in place while parties continue trying to break the deadlock.

The article says Netanyahu could remain as caretaker prime minister until another election is held next year. That would allow the government to continue operating, but without resolving the basic question of who can command a durable parliamentary majority.

The possibility makes coalition negotiations as important as the vote itself. Netanyahu may seek support from far-right allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Eisenkot faces his own limits, including his stated refusal to partner with Arab parties. The outcome could therefore be continued caretaker rule, a negotiated coalition, or another national vote.

The October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack became central because it was Israel’s deadliest day and triggered the wars that dominate this election. Opponents say the government must answer for the security failures that allowed the assault to occur.

Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. For supporters such as 18-year-old Nof Gabay, Netanyahu managed the war well and remains the right leader. For opponents such as Mali Hajaj, accountability requires establishing a national inquiry, which she described as essential to healing.

The disagreement turns the election into a judgment on both responsibility and wartime leadership. Voters are weighing whether Netanyahu should remain in office or whether a new government should investigate the failures and repair the damage. The result will shape demands for accountability after the attacks.

The wars have made security the election’s central political issue, while also increasing domestic disagreement and international pressure. Israel’s offensive in Gaza, clashes involving Hezbollah, and conflict with Iran have shaped voters’ views of Netanyahu’s leadership and future security policy.

Israel flattened much of Gaza after October 7, while Gaza health authorities say Israeli attacks killed 74,000 people. Israel also struck Hezbollah and fought Iran. At home, settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank surged after 2023. Western countries sanctioned Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, accusing them of inciting violence.

These developments have strengthened Netanyahu’s security message but strained relations with Western states and contributed to Israel’s isolation. Eisenkot opposes the far-right coalition partners and wants to prevent Iran gaining a military nuclear capability. The next government will face pressure to manage war, diplomacy and internal divisions together.

A parliamentary election turns votes into governing power through seats and bargaining. Voters elect lawmakers, parties receive parliamentary representation, and the leader who can assemble support from enough lawmakers is best placed to form a government. The largest party does not automatically govern.

Israel’s parliament has 120 seats, so competing blocs must seek partners to reach a majority. Netanyahu may rely on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, while Eisenkot’s alliance could need support from other parties. Eisenkot has ruled out formally partnering with Arab parties, although analysts see a possible role for them in supporting a minority government.

This mechanism explains why a close race can produce uncertain leadership. Parties negotiate over policies and positions after the vote. If no agreement wins enough support, Netanyahu may remain caretaker prime minister and another election could take place next year.