Renewables to reach 40% of total generating capacity, beat gas within a year – EIA

Generating capacity is the maximum electricity a power plant or system could produce under suitable conditions. A 40.4% share means renewable facilities would account for about two-fifths of the US’s installed ability to generate electricity. It describes the size of the equipment base, not its constant output.

Actual generation is the electricity delivered over a period. In the first eight months of 2026, all renewables produced 28.1% of US electricity, while renewables’ projected capacity share rises to 40.4% over the coming year. The difference reflects how often different plants operate and whether conditions support production.

Solar produces only when sunlight is available, and wind output changes with weather. Hydropower, biomass, and geothermal also have different operating patterns. Therefore, a large renewable capacity base can produce less electricity than its capacity percentage suggests, while still reducing reliance on fossil-fuel generation.

EIA projects 53,117.3 MW of new utility-scale renewable capacity between September 2026 and August 2027. That includes 44,603.1 MW of utility-scale solar, 8,312.3 MW of wind, and 201.9 MW from hydropower, biomass, and geothermal. The increase is almost 44% larger than the previous year’s utility-scale renewable additions.

The article also assumes at least 6,000 MW of new small-scale solar, based on recent installation patterns. Combining that assumption with utility-scale additions gives roughly 59,000 MW of renewable capacity. This is an estimate because EIA does not forecast small-scale solar growth for the period.

The contrast with conventional capacity is stark. EIA projects no new nuclear capacity and a net 1,997.0 MW decline in fossil-fuel capacity. Renewable additions therefore vastly exceed conventional additions, accelerating renewables’ overall capacity share toward 40.4%.

Solar and wind are driving renewable growth. During the first two-thirds of 2026, utility-scale solar generation rose 20.0%, small-scale solar rose 12.0%, and wind rose 7.8%. Hydropower, biomass, and geothermal also contributed, though their growth was slower or their output was smaller.

From January through August, wind produced 333,367 GWh, equal to 10.6% of US electricity. Utility-scale and small-scale solar together produced 329,119 GWh, or 10.5%. Hydropower generated 180,940 GWh, biomass 29,917 GWh, and geothermal 10,766 GWh.

These figures show both scale and momentum. Wind and solar together supplied nearly 21.1% of domestic generation and produced 44.4% more electricity than coal. Their capacity is also expanding fastest, especially utility-scale solar, which is projected to add 44,603.1 MW next year.

Natural gas remains important because its installed capacity is large and its plants continue producing substantial electricity. However, capacity growth is now moving much faster toward renewables. Between September 2025 and August 2026, natural-gas capacity rose 5,316.0 MW, while coal capacity fell 2,703.4 MW and nuclear capacity stayed unchanged.

Renewables added 43,497.9 MW over the same period. That expansion was nearly 17 times greater than the 2,612.6 MW net increase from fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. Utility-scale solar supplied 27,141.7 MW of renewable growth, while wind supplied 9,979.1 MW and small-scale solar added 6,526.1 MW.

Installed capacity is a cumulative measure. As renewable projects keep entering service and older coal capacity retires, renewables can pass natural gas in total capacity even while gas continues generating electricity. The article projects renewables reaching about 550,000 MW, compared with 518,312.8 MW for gas.

Battery storage helps connect renewable production with electricity demand. Solar output is concentrated in daylight, while wind output changes over time. Batteries can absorb electricity when renewable production is high and release it later, reducing the gap between generation and demand.

The EIA projects 23,656.2 MW of additional utility-scale battery capacity by September 1, 2027. That would raise total battery capacity to 77,753.2 MW, a 43.7% increase. The article also counts 76,773.5 MW of combined new utility-scale renewable and battery capacity by late summer 2027.

Storage does not generate electricity itself, but it can improve the usefulness of renewable generation. As solar and wind capacity expand, batteries provide another way to shift available clean electricity. The figures show storage growing alongside renewables rather than separately from them.

Capacity records how much electricity equipment could produce at a given moment under favorable conditions. Generation records how much electricity it actually delivers over a period. These measures answer different questions, so they do not rise in lockstep.

For example, a newly built solar farm increases capacity as soon as it enters service. Its yearly generation then depends on sunlight and the time it has operated. A wind project similarly adds capacity immediately, but its output varies with wind conditions. A plant installed late in a reporting year has had less time to generate electricity.

The article illustrates this distinction. Renewable capacity grew by 43,497.9 MW in one year, while renewable generation during the first two-thirds of 2026 rose 10.2% year over year. Generation can therefore grow more slowly than capacity, even during rapid construction, because output depends on availability and operating conditions.

A power grid must continually match electricity supply with demand. Sunlight and wind vary by hour and season, so operators forecast their output and coordinate many resources. The source article reports rapid renewable and storage growth but does not describe the grid-balancing process.

In established grid practice, operators combine renewable forecasts with flexible power plants, hydropower, battery storage, transmission links, and changes in electricity demand. Batteries can shift electricity from periods of high renewable output to later periods. Transmission can move power between areas with different weather or demand conditions. These tools work together rather than relying on one technology.

The article provides one clear part of this picture: utility-scale battery capacity is projected to rise 43.7% to 77,753.2 MW by September 2027. It does not quantify transmission, demand response, or seasonal balancing. Those details would be needed to assess the entire system’s future operation.