Netanyahu loses his majority, but no one has won it yet

Being the largest party means Likud would hold more Knesset seats than any other party. Losing its majority means Netanyahu and his allies cannot reach the 61 seats required to govern alone or reliably command parliament. The distinction matters because Israel’s parties usually need partners to form a coalition.

The article says Likud lost seven or eight seats but still outperformed the final polls. Parties to Likud’s right largely stood still, while a new hard-right party may have fallen below the entry threshold. Likud’s gains mostly came from Netanyahu’s own camp, not from his opponents.

Netanyahu’s bloc is therefore short of a governing majority. The opposition and Arab-led parties together appear to have more seats, but opposition leaders have ruled out joining the Arab parties. Netanyahu could still try to attract parties that rejected him before the election, so the result remains unsettled.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, so controlling it requires at least 61. That number gives a governing bloc a majority rather than merely making one party the largest. The distinction is crucial in a fragmented election, where several parties may need to cooperate.

The article does not provide a precise combined seat total for Netanyahu’s Likud, far-right allies, and ultra-Orthodox partners. It says they are “nowhere near” the 61 seats needed for a majority. Likud itself is projected to lose seven or eight seats, while parties to its right have largely stayed still.

By contrast, the change bloc is projected to win 52 or 53 seats, and Arab-led parties may win 17 or 18. Added together, those groups would form a clear majority against Netanyahu. However, opposition parties have ruled out joining the Arab parties, leaving the arithmetic politically difficult.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament and the arena where elected parties seek enough support to govern. Its 120 seats are divided among parties, so the election does not simply hand power to whoever finishes first. A leader needs partners or outside support to assemble a workable government.

The article describes President Isaac Herzog consulting the parties after the election. Their recommendations help indicate which leader has the strongest chance of forming a government. The expectation is that Gadi Eisenkot will receive the most recommendations as the leader of the largest opposition party.

Herzog is then expected to tap Eisenkot first to try to form a government. He would have four weeks, with a possible two-week extension. If he cannot build a coalition, the process may move to another leader. The election therefore starts negotiations rather than immediately deciding the prime minister.

Having more seats than Netanyahu’s bloc is not enough if the opposition parties cannot agree on a governing partnership. A government needs a majority, or at least dependable support, but political red lines can prevent parties from combining their seats.

The article projects 52 or 53 seats for the change bloc and 17 or 18 for Arab-led parties. Together, that would create a decisive majority against Netanyahu. Yet opposition leaders have ruled out entering government with the Arab parties. Gadi Eisenkot said they did not meet his conditions, especially because they do not recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation.

That leaves the opposition with a numerical majority but no confirmed coalition. Arab parties might support a government from outside by voting for it or abstaining, creating a minority government. The article also notes that politicians sometimes reverse pre-election promises, so negotiations could still change the outcome.

Arab-led parties could become decisive because their projected seats may turn an opposition grouping into a majority. They would not necessarily need cabinet positions. The article says they could support a government from outside by voting for it or abstaining in the Knesset, allowing a minority government to survive.

Their projected strength is especially striking: Arab-led parties may rise from 10 seats at the last election to 17 or 18. The article links this gain to increased turnout among Israel’s Arab citizens. One exit poll even suggests Arab turnout surpassed Jewish turnout.

Despite that potential, opposition leaders have rejected joining them. Gadi Eisenkot said the parties did not meet his conditions, foremost because they do not recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation. Their seats could still matter during negotiations, however, because outside support or abstention might help an opposition government take office.

After the election, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties and considers their recommendations. The leader who appears most likely to assemble a government is given the first opportunity. This process matters because the largest party does not automatically receive the first mandate.

The article expects Gadi Eisenkot to win the most recommendations as leader of the largest opposition party. Herzog would then tap him to try to form a government. Eisenkot must negotiate with parties whose seats could collectively reach a majority or provide reliable outside support.

He would have four weeks to succeed, with a possible two-week extension. The obstacle is that the change bloc and Arab parties may have enough seats together but disagree about working together. If Eisenkot cannot overcome that divide, the formation effort may shift to another leader. The article leaves the final government unresolved.

Under proportional representation, parties gain seats broadly in line with their share of the vote rather than one party taking nearly all legislative seats. This gives smaller parties a route into parliament and makes it harder for one party to win 61 of 120 seats outright. Coalition governments become the normal way to reach a majority.

The article’s result shows that pattern clearly. Likud may be the largest party, but Netanyahu’s allies are still far short of 61. The change bloc has 52 or 53 seats, while Arab-led parties may have 17 or 18. Several groups therefore hold pieces of the governing puzzle.

The result is bargaining after election day. Parties must decide whether to join a coalition, support it from outside, or maintain their campaign promises. Here, the opposition has a possible numerical majority with Arab parties but rejects a formal partnership. That leaves Israel split, with no clear governing majority yet.