Arab parties Ra'am, Joint List soar to 17-18 seats amid high turnout, election exit polls show

Israel’s two main Arab parties appeared to gain substantially in the election exit polls. Ra’am was projected to win seven Knesset seats, while the Joint List was projected to win 11. The result suggested a stronger parliamentary presence for Arab political parties.

The projections were based on exit polls published by Channels 11, 12, and 13. They indicated that the two parties could hold 18 seats together in the 120-member Knesset. This was a sharp increase from their five seats each in the outgoing parliament.

The projections did not guarantee the final result. Still, the larger bloc could matter because neither major political camp appeared certain to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas said the opposition bloc and Ra’am might reach 61 seats together, but added that the available numbers did not yet produce a government.

Exit polls projected that Ra’am and the Joint List would win 18 of the Knesset’s 120 seats combined. This figure matters because seats determine how much influence parties have over legislation and government formation.

The outgoing parliament gave each party five seats, for a combined total of 10. The projections therefore represented an increase of eight seats. Ra’am was projected to hold seven seats, while the Joint List was projected to hold 11.

The projected total did not automatically mean the parties would enter government. Parties allied with Likud, including those headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, had ruled out including Arab parties. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman in the opposition had also rejected that possibility. Even outside government, however, 18 seats could help decide whether either bloc reaches the 61-seat majority threshold.

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament, made up of 120 seats. It is the institution where elected parties hold legislative power and where the parliamentary balance shapes government formation.

A governing bloc needs at least 61 Knesset seats to secure a majority. The election projections placed Ra’am and the Joint List at 18 seats together, making their support potentially important if competing blocs fall short of 61. A majority is therefore a seat calculation, not simply a measure of which party won the most votes.

The article describes a political environment in which parties on both sides have ruled out bringing Arab parties into a governing coalition. Even so, Ra’am or the Joint List could support a government from outside the coalition. That kind of support could help a bloc pass the 61-seat threshold without giving the Arab parties formal cabinet membership.

Israel’s government is formed through parliamentary support. If no political bloc reaches 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, smaller parties can become decisive by supporting one side or withholding support.

Ra’am and the Joint List were projected to hold 18 seats together. Although parties allied with Likud, as well as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman in the opposition, ruled out including Arab parties in a government, the Arab parties could still support one from outside the coalition. Their votes could help a bloc reach the 61-seat threshold.

This gives the parties influence without formal coalition membership. Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas hoped final results would allow the opposition bloc and Ra’am to reach 61 seats together. However, he said the numbers available at that point did not produce a government. The final outcome therefore depended on both the confirmed seat totals and potential outside support.

Ra’am and the Joint List are described as Israel’s two main Arab parties. Their projected gains made them important participants in the election and potentially important actors in government formation, even though coalition partners had ruled out including Arab parties.

The Joint List is a coalition of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad. Hadash is a left-wing Arab-Jewish communist party. Ta’al is a secular Arab nationalist party. Balad is a left-wing Palestinian nationalist party. These descriptions show that the Joint List brings together groups with different political traditions.

Ra’am is presented in the article as a separate Arab party, led by Mansour Abbas. The article does not give Ra’am a fuller ideological description. It does report Abbas’s goal of replacing the current government and his hope that Ra’am could help the opposition bloc reach 61 seats. The Joint List’s Yousef Jabareen also called the party a political force that could not be ignored.

Turnout among Arab citizens matters because Israel’s parliamentary system converts party support into Knesset seats. When more people in a community vote, the parties they support can gain a larger share of the national vote and potentially win more seats.

The election provided a concrete example. The Central Elections Committee reported significantly higher Arab Israeli turnout than in previous years. The unrecognized Bedouin village of Atuana recorded 64% turnout by early noon, the highest in the country at that point. Two other villages ranked second and fourth, with turnout of 47.9% and 47.8%.

That participation may help explain why exit polls projected 18 seats for Ra’am and the Joint List together, compared with 10 seats in the outgoing parliament. Higher turnout does not guarantee a particular result, but it increases the electoral weight of Arab voters and can affect which blocs approach the 61-seat majority threshold.

Exit polls provide an early estimate of election results by asking voters how they voted after leaving polling stations. They are not the official count. The article identified the figures as projections published by Channels 11, 12, and 13.

Official results are determined after ballots are counted and validated. If an exit poll sample does not perfectly represent the full electorate, its projection can differ from the final result. Small changes in vote totals can also affect how seats are distributed, especially when parties are close to winning or losing a seat.

That is why the projected seven seats for Ra’am and 11 for the Joint List were not final. Mansour Abbas referred to the “final results” and said the numbers available at that time did not produce a government. The eventual totals could therefore change the balance between blocs and whether they can reach 61 seats.