No clear mandate projected in Israel election: What’s next?

The exit polls point to a closely divided Knesset rather than a clear winner. Netanyahu’s coalition, led by Likud, is projected to win 50 of 120 seats. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 52. Neither side reaches the 61 seats required for a majority government.

The gap between the two blocs is only two seats. That makes the Arab-led parties especially important. They are projected to win 18 seats and are outside both main coalitions. If other parties agree to work with them, they could help determine which candidate forms a government.

The projections do not settle the outcome. Final results will be announced after the November 4 tally, and President Isaac Herzog will choose the candidate he believes has the best chance of building a coalition. Netanyahu’s bloc has weakened, but his opponents also face difficult negotiations.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, made up of 120 seats. In this election, parties and blocs must gather support inside that parliament to form a government. The key threshold is 61 seats, which is more than half of all 120 members.

That threshold matters because a government needs parliamentary confidence. The article says a new government must win a confidence vote by a simple majority. The vote can involve fewer than 61 members if some parties abstain, but a governing coalition still needs dependable support to function.

The exit polls show why the threshold matters. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to have 50 seats, while Eisenkot’s has 52. Both fall short. They must therefore negotiate with smaller parties, seek outside support, form a power-sharing arrangement, or attempt another permitted route to government.

The exit polls project 50 seats for the coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. They give 52 seats to the opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. Arab-led parties, which are outside both coalitions, are projected to win 18 seats.

These figures reveal a fragmented balance of power. Eisenkot’s bloc leads Netanyahu’s by two seats, but neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority needed to form a government alone. The Arab-led parties therefore hold a potentially decisive position if other parties are willing to cooperate with them.

The numbers remain projections until the final tally. Herzog will consult party leaders and select the candidate he thinks has the strongest chance of forming a government. That person may not lead the party with the most seats, so negotiations could matter more than the initial ranking.

Once the final vote tally is complete on November 4, President Isaac Herzog will speak with party leaders. He will ask whom they want as prime minister, then appoint the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The choice is not automatically the leader of the largest party.

With Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s parties projected as the strongest, both are leading contenders. The nominated candidate initially has 28 days to build a coalition. Herzog can extend that period by another 14 days, creating a maximum of 42 days for negotiations.

During that time, parties may bargain over policy concessions and ministerial positions. The candidate must secure enough parliamentary support to govern. If the first attempt fails, Herzog can ask another Knesset member to try for 28 days, followed by a possible third candidate with 14 days.

A bloc does not necessarily need 61 seats entirely under its own banner. The designated candidate can negotiate with smaller parties for support, often by offering policy concessions or ministerial portfolios. Those agreements can create a governing coalition that crosses the majority threshold.

The article also identifies two alternatives. A candidate could form a minority government by relying on support from smaller parties without bringing them fully into the coalition. Or rival groups could agree to share power through alternating prime ministers. In either case, the proposed government must win a parliamentary confidence vote.

That vote requires a simple majority, which can be fewer than 61 votes if some parties abstain. Still, such arrangements may be fragile because the government needs enough support to survive parliamentary challenges and carry out its programme. The projected seat totals make these negotiations central to the outcome.

If the first candidate cannot form a government, Herzog may invite another Knesset member to try within 28 days. If that attempt also fails, a majority of Knesset members can put forward a third candidate. That person has a final 14 days to assemble a government.

If the Knesset remains deadlocked, it is formally dissolved. Israelis then return to the polls for another election. The new election must be called within 90 days, while Netanyahu’s government remains in office as a caretaker government.

Another election would extend the political uncertainty rather than immediately produce a new administration. Israel has experienced similar gridlock before. Three rounds of elections took place between April 2019 and March 2020, eventually producing a power-sharing agreement between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. That government collapsed a year later after failing to pass a budget.

In a parliamentary system, voters elect lawmakers rather than directly choosing a government with a guaranteed mandate. The party with the most seats may lead the field but still lack enough support to pass a confidence vote. Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, so 61 is the normal majority threshold.

This election illustrates the mechanism. Eisenkot’s bloc is projected to lead with 52 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc has 50. Neither can govern alone. Smaller parties can provide the remaining support through coalition agreements, outside backing, or a power-sharing deal. Arab-led parties are projected to hold 18 seats and could become kingmakers.

Coalition governments therefore depend on negotiation. Larger blocs may offer policy concessions or ministerial positions to attract partners. They may also seek abstentions or form a minority government. The party with the most seats can still lose the governing contest if another candidate builds a broader parliamentary alliance.