Netanyahu seeks 'right-wing, national, strong govt' in tight Israel election race

The central dispute was whether Netanyahu’s right-wing alliance had enough seats to govern. He said Likud remained Israel’s largest party and that the right-wing bloc had a “decisive majority.” That claim mattered because a majority is needed to build a government in the 120-seat Knesset.

The exit polls presented a different picture. Major television stations projected roughly 51 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and roughly 51 for the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot. Arab-led parties were projected to win about 18 seats. Those figures suggested that neither main camp could immediately reach the 61-seat threshold.

The projections were preliminary, not final results. Officials had begun counting votes, including around 600,000 double-envelope ballots. Netanyahu’s Likud could still be the largest single party, but the wider coalition arithmetic remained uncertain. Eisenkot called the result a vote for change and pledged to form a government.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, made up of 120 seats. It is the institution whose election determines which parties can support a government. The key number is 61, because that is more than half of all Knesset seats.

For example, a party winning the most seats may still lack enough lawmakers to govern alone. It must usually work with other parties and combine their seats into a coalition. If those partners together reach at least 61 seats, they can support a government in the Knesset. If they do not, forming a stable government becomes difficult.

That threshold explains the uncertainty in this election. Exit polls gave Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s camp about 51 seats each. Neither reached 61 on its own. Arab-led parties were projected to hold about 18 seats, making the wider political arithmetic important as official counting continued.

The exit polls showed a closely divided election rather than a clear winner. Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win around 51 seats. The opposition camp led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was also projected to win around 51. Arab-led parties were projected to secure about 18 seats.

These figures matter because the Knesset has 120 seats, and a majority requires 61. Even if the projections were close, neither main camp had enough seats to govern without support from other parties. The projected Arab-led seats therefore formed an important part of the possible coalition arithmetic, although Netanyahu said Israel should not depend on Arab-led parties.

Voter participation was unusually high. Turnout exceeded 77 per cent, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee. That was the highest turnout since 1999. The figures remained preliminary, because officials were still counting votes and double-envelope ballots.

Being the largest single party is not the same as controlling the Knesset. Israel’s parliament has 120 seats, so a governing coalition needs at least 61. A party can lead the election but still lack enough allies to command that majority.

The exit polls offered a clear example. Netanyahu’s Likud could emerge as the largest individual party, yet his broader right-wing bloc was projected to have about 51 seats. It would therefore need support from other parties. Netanyahu had previously led a coalition of 68 members, but that coalition weakened during the past year amid disagreements, including disputes over military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

The final outcome remained unsettled because counting was still underway. Around 600,000 double-envelope ballots had to be included. These ballots do not usually change the overall result significantly, but shifting exit polls increased uncertainty. The president would identify the leader best placed to assemble a coalition.

A coalition government is an administration supported by several political parties rather than one party alone. The parties agree to work together and combine their Knesset seats. Their shared support allows a prime minister and government to function.

This arrangement matters especially in Israel because the Knesset has 120 seats and a majority requires 61. A party may win more seats than every rival but still fall short of that number. It must then negotiate with other parties, whose support can determine whether a government is formed. The article’s projections showed about 51 seats for each main camp, demonstrating why alliances mattered.

Coalitions can also become unstable when partners disagree. Netanyahu’s earlier coalition had 68 members, but it weakened over the past year. One dispute involved exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The election therefore concerned not only which party led, but whether a durable group could reach and maintain 61 seats.

“Double envelopes” are ballots cast by voters who cannot leave their duties to vote in person at a regular polling station. The article names soldiers, diplomats, doctors and nurses among those using this process. Their ballots are counted separately after polling-station counting is complete.

The mechanism is straightforward. Officials first finish counting votes at polling stations, then turn to these additional envelopes. Because the ballots come from many voters, they can alter close totals or change the distribution of seats. In this election, around 600,000 such envelopes were included in the count.

They usually do not change the overall result significantly, according to the article. However, the exit polls were already shifting, and neither main camp was projected to reach 61 seats. That meant even a normally limited effect could matter politically. The final numbers could change before officials completed the count and coalition calculations.

After the votes are counted, Israel’s president has a formal role in starting government formation. The president identifies the party leader who appears best placed to assemble a governing coalition. This matters because the election may not produce a single party with 61 seats.

In this contest, both major camps were projected at about 51 seats. The president therefore faces a question of political arithmetic, not simply which party is largest. A leader must find enough partners to reach 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The article notes that the president will be tasked with identifying the leader best placed to do that.

The article does not explain the procedure if no party leader can assemble a majority coalition. It does establish that government formation remains uncertain, despite Likud possibly becoming the largest single party. Official counting, including double-envelope ballots, comes before the president’s decision.