Netanyahu’s future in balance as opposition fails to deliver knockout blow

The election produced a deadlock rather than a clear victory. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and the opposition Zionist bloc both fell short of the 61 seats needed to govern alone. That leaves coalition bargaining as the central issue, because neither side can form a government without outside support or new political partners.

The first Channel 12 exit poll gave Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 52 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 50. A revised poll reversed their positions, putting Netanyahu’s group on 52 and Eisenkot’s on 49. The Arab parties were projected to win 18 seats, giving them a potentially decisive position.

The result weakened Netanyahu’s bloc, which held 64 seats after the 2022 election and later reached 68. Yet it did not deliver the opposition a knockout win. Netanyahu claimed a mandate to build a right-wing government, while Eisenkot said voters had demanded change. Negotiations, absentee ballots and possible Arab support will determine what happens next.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, the body in which elected parties hold seats and support a government. Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats. To command a majority, a governing coalition must control at least 61, which is one more than half the chamber.

This threshold matters because governments need enough parliamentary backing to pass laws, approve budgets and survive political tests. A party can be the largest without having enough seats to govern. Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as Israel’s biggest single party, but the wider bloc still lacked a confirmed path to 61 seats.

The projected results therefore created bargaining rather than an immediate change of government. A leader may try to bring other parties into a coalition or secure their support. If no arrangement reaches 61, Israel may return to elections. The article also notes that a minority government is possible, but it would not have a majority in the Knesset.

The election projections showed no bloc close to controlling the Knesset alone. Channel 12’s first exit poll gave Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 52 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, and the Arab parties 18. A revised poll instead put Netanyahu’s group at 52 and Eisenkot’s at 49. Other projections placed the Arab parties at about 19 seats.

The comparison with 2022 was especially important for Netanyahu. His right-wing bloc had won 64 seats in the most recent elections, then increased that number to 68 during the term. The new projection therefore represented a substantial decline, even if it did not remove him from office.

The figures also explain why the outcome remained unsettled. Both major blocs were below the 61-seat majority line. The Arab parties held enough projected seats to become potential coalition partners or outside supporters, while absentee ballots from soldiers could still alter the final balance.

The Arab parties could determine the government because neither major bloc reached 61 seats. With roughly 17–19 seats projected, they held enough parliamentary strength to push an opposition coalition over the majority threshold. Their role made them possible kingmakers in the negotiations following the election.

Mansour Abbas, chairman of the United Arab List, said he hoped his party and the opposition Bloc of Change could reach 61 seats and remove Netanyahu. Former US ambassador Dan Shapiro likewise said Eisenkot’s bloc had a path by working with Arab parties projected to receive 17–18 seats.

But cooperation was politically difficult. Avigdor Lieberman, a fierce Netanyahu opponent, said he would not join a government that included Arab parties. Netanyahu also argued Israel could not be led by a government supported by Arab backing. The final outcome therefore depends not only on arithmetic, but also on which alliances parties will accept.

Coalition negotiations are the process of assembling a government from several parties. In this election, no single party or major bloc had 61 seats. The leader seeking power must therefore persuade other parties to join the government or support it in parliament.

For example, Eisenkot’s bloc was projected at 49–52 seats, while the Arab parties had about 18. Their support could provide the missing seats needed to reach 61. Other potential partners, including Naftali Bennett’s supporters or secular and nationalist parties, could also affect the bargaining. The precise combinations depend on each party’s conditions.

The mechanism is political agreement, not simply winning the most seats. Netanyahu’s Likud was the largest single party, but that did not guarantee him a governing majority. He sought a strong right-wing national government, while opponents discussed a Zionist coalition. If negotiations fail, the country can hold another election.

If no leader can assemble a governing coalition, the election does not produce a functioning majority government. Israel would return to the polls, repeating the political process in search of a workable parliamentary balance. The article identifies this as a real possibility after the inconclusive result.

The immediate obstacle is arithmetic. Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc both fell short of 61 seats, while possible partners had conflicting positions. Arab parties could help the opposition reach a majority, but Lieberman said he would not sit in a government that included them. Netanyahu also rejected a government supported by Arab backing.

This combination could leave negotiations stuck. Avigdor Lieberman warned that soldier absentee ballots might still change the numbers, so the final picture was not yet settled. If those votes do not create a viable coalition, Israel could face another election, as it did repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.

Israel’s proportional-representation system distributes Knesset seats according to parties’ electoral support rather than giving all power to one winner. This allows smaller parties, including Arab and religious parties, to win parliamentary seats. Their presence can reflect different parts of society, but it also fragments the chamber.

In this election, the Arab parties were projected to win about 18 seats, while Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s blocs remained below 61. Those smaller-party seats could therefore decide which larger bloc forms a government. Parties must negotiate shared policies and political support after voting, instead of simply accepting the largest party as the government.

When alliances cannot agree, no leader can command a majority. The article describes Israel returning to elections repeatedly between 2019 and 2022 for this reason. The current result creates a similar risk: absentee ballots may change the totals, but unresolved disagreements could still force another vote.