The election 'kingmakers': How Arab parties could be the key to Israel's new government

“Kingmakers” are parties whose seats can determine which major political bloc gains power. They do not need to win the most seats. Their support can decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot can assemble a government.

The election’s exit polls showed Eisenkot’s opposition bloc ahead but below the 61 seats required for a majority. Arab-led parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, were projected to win as many as 18 seats. That makes their support potentially decisive in coalition negotiations.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot rejected openly forming alliances with Arab parties. However, the article says Arab parties could help prop up a minority government. Their leaders may therefore negotiate support, even if they do not formally join a coalition. The final outcome could take weeks.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, so a bloc needs at least 61 to control a majority. That threshold matters because a government needs enough parliamentary support to be formed and sustained.

The article reports that exit polls put Arab-led parties at possibly as many as 18 seats. The parties mentioned are Ra’am and the Joint List. Eighteen seats would not give them control of the Knesset, but it could make them essential to either major bloc seeking power.

Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot appeared able to reach 61 seats alone or with their preferred partners. As official ballots continued to be counted, the numbers could change. The final result and coalition negotiations might therefore take several weeks.

Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc won enough projected seats to control the 120-seat Knesset. The key threshold is 61 seats, and exit polls indicated that neither side had reached it.

Eisenkot’s bloc, made up of centrist, right-wing and left-wing parties, appeared to win the most seats. However, the article says it may still have fallen short of a majority. Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc also lacked enough support to form a government without additional partners.

The divided result means the election did not produce a straightforward winner. Parties must now negotiate possible coalitions or other forms of parliamentary support. Official counting was still underway, and the article says a final political outcome could be weeks away.

The Arab-led parties mentioned are Ra’am, described as a conservative Islamist party, and the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties. They are led by Mansour Abbas and include figures such as Ahmed Tibi.

These parties represent Arab citizens of Israel, also described in the article as Palestinian citizens of Israel. That community makes up about 21 per cent of Israel’s population. The article says Arab voters turned out in force, after often having relatively low turnout in previous elections.

Their projected strength gave them unusual leverage. Exit polls suggested Arab-led parties might win as many as 18 seats. Although both major leaders rejected alliances with them, their seats could become important in coalition negotiations or in supporting a minority government.

If no political bloc reaches 61 seats, the election does not immediately produce a government with a clear majority. Parties must negotiate to assemble enough parliamentary support for a governing arrangement.

The article describes two possible paths. Leaders could build a coalition by bringing several parties together. Alternatively, they could seek outside backing to prop up a minority government. That support might come from parties that do not formally join the government, although the article does not specify the exact terms.

The negotiations could be difficult because Netanyahu and Eisenkot both rejected alliances with Arab parties, while Arab-led parties might hold as many as 18 seats. Ballots were still being counted, and the article says a winner could be weeks away as parties bargain over the next government.

A government does not always need every supporting party to join its formal coalition. Leaders can sometimes reach agreements in which another party supports the government from outside, backs particular votes, or abstains during confidence votes. These arrangements can provide parliamentary survival without an openly declared alliance.

The article directly points to one such possibility: Arab-led parties could help “prop up a minority government.” That would allow a bloc to govern while lacking 61 seats, provided it can obtain enough support on important votes. The article does not detail the terms of such an arrangement.

Other options, such as temporary agreements with individual parties or a rotating support deal, are established parliamentary possibilities rather than arrangements specified in this article. Any deal would be politically sensitive because both Netanyahu and Eisenkot rejected openly joining with Arab parties.

In Israel’s parliamentary system, voters elect parties to the 120-seat Knesset rather than choosing a government that automatically controls the legislature. A party or bloc therefore needs support from other parties when it lacks 61 seats.

The election illustrates this mechanism. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc appeared to lead, but exit polls suggested it still fell short of a majority. Netanyahu also lacked enough seats. Both leaders therefore faced pressure to negotiate with possible partners, including Arab-led parties that might win as many as 18 seats.

Coalition-building matters because parliamentary support determines whether a government can be formed and maintained. The article says negotiations could take weeks. It also notes that both leaders rejected alliances with Arab parties, creating a gap between their stated positions and the support they might need.