Israeli exit polls suggest no clear winner in pivotal general election

The exit polls point to a deadlocked election, not a clear victory. Neither veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor former military chief Gadi Eisenkot appeared able to command the 61 seats needed for a majority. That matters because Israel’s next government will depend on negotiations after the final count.

Two broadcasters projected Eisenkot’s Change Bloc and Netanyahu’s coalition at 51 seats each. The Change Bloc included Eisenkot’s Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties. Another broadcaster gave Netanyahu’s bloc 52 seats against Eisenkot’s 49. These figures were projections, not final results.

The Arab parties could decide what happens next. They were projected to win 18 or 19 seats, making them potential kingmakers. Around 600,000 absentee ballots, mostly from military personnel, still had to be fully counted by Thursday. The president will then consult political factions and invite the leader most likely to build a coalition.

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament. It has 120 seats, and those seats are distributed among political parties after a general election. The parliament is central to forming a government because a governing coalition needs enough support among its members to survive and pass legislation.

The article shows this organization through competing blocs. Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to be the largest single party, but it relied on far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies. Eisenkot’s Yashar party also depended on three other Jewish opposition parties in the Change Bloc. Arab parties formed another important group outside those main blocs.

This arrangement makes party size and alliances both important. A party can lead the parliament without controlling a majority. After final results, Israel’s president consults all political factions and invites the leader believed most likely to form a coalition. That process can take weeks, and failure can trigger another election.

A majority in Israel’s 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats. That threshold matters because a government needs support from more than half the parliament to govern with a reliable mandate. Winning the largest number of seats is not enough if a party cannot assemble partners.

The exit polls showed the problem clearly. Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s Change Bloc were each projected at about 51 seats by two broadcasters. Another poll gave Netanyahu’s bloc 52 and Eisenkot’s 49. Even the stronger projection remained below 61, so both sides needed additional support.

The Arab parties therefore became especially important. Their projected 18 or 19 seats could potentially push one side above the majority line, although only one party had openly backed working with them in government. The president will assess which leader has the best chance of building a coalition after final results are confirmed.

The Arab parties could become kingmakers because neither main Jewish bloc appeared close to a majority. Two broadcasters projected Netanyahu’s coalition and Eisenkot’s Change Bloc at 51 seats each. With 120 seats in the Knesset, a government needs 61, so both sides need outside support.

The United Arab List and the Joint List were projected to win 18 or 19 seats combined. That was linked to reportedly strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who make up about a fifth of Israel’s population. United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said he hoped his party, the Change Bloc, and the UAL could reach 61 seats together.

Their influence still had limits. Only one Arab party had openly backed working with them in government. The Joint List’s chairman said the grouping could not be ignored under any political scenario. Their final seat totals and willingness to cooperate could decide who forms the next government.

When no party or bloc can assemble a governing majority, Israel enters a period of coalition negotiations. The goal is to create a government supported by at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset. This matters because election results alone do not automatically decide who becomes prime minister.

After the final results are confirmed, the president consults all political factions. The president then invites the party leader believed to have the best chance of forming a governing coalition. That process may take weeks, especially when blocs are closely balanced and potential partners disagree.

If the invited leader cannot build a workable coalition, the process can continue under the country’s rules. The article states that if efforts ultimately fail, Israel would have to hold another election. The unresolved exit polls therefore mark the start of negotiations, not the final formation of a government.

After Israel’s 2021 election, the United Arab List helped create a governing coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Its participation showed how an Arab party could provide crucial parliamentary support when larger blocs could not govern alone. The arrangement also made the party an important political partner.

The coalition combined parties that needed one another to reach a governing majority. The United Arab List’s support helped the coalition take office, according to the article. This example explains why its projected seats mattered again in the current election, where neither main bloc appeared to have 61 seats.

The coalition did not last. The article states that it collapsed after one year, but does not give a specific reason. Its short life shows both the opportunity and difficulty of building a government from different political groups. The United Arab List’s possible role in the new election therefore carries major consequences.

Israel usually needs coalition governments because its parliament contains multiple parties rather than one dominant governing party. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs support from at least 61. When votes are spread across several parties, no single party reaches that threshold alone.

The election projections illustrate the mechanism. Likud was expected to be the largest individual party, but Netanyahu still depended on far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies. Eisenkot’s Yashar party also needed three other Jewish opposition parties in the Change Bloc. Both larger groupings remained below 61 seats.

Coalitions let parties combine their seats and govern, but they can be fragile when partners disagree. The United Arab List previously joined a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which collapsed after a year. In the current election, negotiations among Jewish and Arab parties could again determine who governs.