As vote count keeps Israel in suspense, what happens next?

The election appeared to produce a near tie rather than a clear winner. Exit polls from Israel’s three mainstream television networks gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and his rival’s bloc around 51 seats each. Neither side was close enough to govern alone.

The key number is 61. The Knesset has 120 seats, so a bloc needs at least 61 lawmakers to hold a majority. A majority makes it possible to approve a government and survive parliamentary votes. Smaller parties can therefore become crucial even when they win far fewer seats.

The result remained uncertain because exit polls are not final results. Israeli Arab lists were projected to win 17 or 18 seats between them, creating another possible source of support. The president would choose the candidate seen as having the best chance to assemble a government, not automatically the leader of the largest bloc.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament. In this election, it has 120 seats. Those seats are divided among political parties and blocs according to the election result. The balance determines which leaders can build a government and pass measures through the legislature.

A bloc needs 61 seats for a majority. A party or alliance with fewer seats cannot normally govern securely on its own. It must negotiate with other parties, win their formal participation, or obtain their support on individual votes. This gives smaller parties influence beyond their size.

The exit polls showed why the numbers mattered immediately. Netanyahu’s camp and the opposition camp each appeared to have about 51 seats. Both were short of 61, so negotiations, possible minority rule, a unity government, or another election became possible. The final allocation could change which candidate has the strongest path.

A hung result does not automatically end the political process. Parties begin negotiating to assemble a coalition that reaches at least 61 seats. This matters because the election can decide which groups hold leverage, even when no bloc wins enough seats to govern alone.

President Isaac Herzog names a candidate judged most likely to form a government. That person has 28 days in principle, with a possible 14-day extension, to build a coalition. Negotiations can be difficult because parties demand attention to their own interests. Netanyahu took 58 days to form his government after the November 2022 election.

If coalition talks fail, other arrangements remain possible. A candidate might lead a minority government with ad hoc support, or rivals might form a national unity government. If no candidate succeeds, Israel returns to the polls, although procedures can delay an immediate new election.

A coalition government would combine parties until it reaches 61 seats. A minority government would operate below that number, relying on other lawmakers for support vote by vote. A national unity government would bring major rivals together, potentially excluding Netanyahu’s far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies.

Arab parties could provide a minority government with a “safety net” without formally joining it. A unity government has a recent precedent: Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agreed to share power in 2020 after three elections in less than a year. Their partnership collapsed after one year, triggering another election.

The result made every route uncertain. Eisenkot’s camp had kept Arab parties at arm’s length, while Netanyahu’s bloc had no obvious extra seats after smaller right-wing parties missed the threshold. If no candidate could form a government, another election would follow.

The president’s role is to identify the politician most likely to assemble a governing majority. This is important because election results may leave several blocs short of 61 seats. The largest party or bloc does not automatically have the strongest coalition path.

After the vote, Herzog names a candidate to try forming a government. In principle, that candidate has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. The candidate must negotiate with other parties and lawmakers, whose support can determine whether a coalition survives parliamentary votes.

The exit polls offered no simple choice. Netanyahu’s bloc and its rival each appeared to have around 51 seats. Israeli Arab lists were projected to win 17 or 18 seats, but Eisenkot’s camp had kept them at arm’s length. Herzog therefore had to consider practical support, not only headline seat totals.

Arab Israeli parties could decide who governs because neither main bloc appeared close to 61 seats. Exit polls showed the Arab lists winning 17 or 18 seats between them. Even partial support could therefore help a candidate pass key votes or build a majority. Their leverage grew with strong Arab turnout.

Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, had already acted as a kingmaker. It became the first Arab party to join an Israeli government, entering the short-lived 2021–2022 coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. The Joint List took a different position, offering a “safety net” rather than openly joining a coalition.

Their influence remained uncertain. Eisenkot had not publicly considered working with them, and his camp saw their support as a campaign liability. Netanyahu warned Jewish voters that an opposition victory could bring Arabs into government. Final results could still change the balance.

A parliamentary coalition system allows several parties to form a government together. The governing side must usually command enough lawmakers to pass legislation and survive confidence votes. Parties negotiate over policies, ministerial roles, and other interests before agreeing to cooperate.

That is why winning the most seats does not guarantee power. In this election, both main blocs appeared to have about 51 seats. Each remained roughly ten seats short of the 61-seat majority needed in the 120-member Knesset. Smaller parties could supply the missing support or refuse to cooperate.

The system can produce unstable governments when negotiations are difficult. Israel held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 because politicians could not forge a lasting coalition. The current result could lead to a coalition, a minority government, a unity government, or new elections if bargaining fails.