Netanyahu likely to win most seats in Israeli polls: What happens next?

The largest bloc can lead the election without being able to govern alone. Israel's parliament has 120 seats, so a governing coalition normally needs support from at least 61. Winning more seats than any other bloc gives Netanyahu's allies an advantage, but it does not settle who becomes prime minister.

For example, several smaller parties may win enough seats to hold the balance. They can negotiate with Netanyahu's bloc or with its rival, Gadi Eisenkot. Their support can determine whether a coalition reaches a majority and what agreements it makes. The article calls such small parties potential kingmakers.

The current result remains uncertain because votes are still being tallied and exit polls are not precise. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders after the final count, then choose the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. If talks fail, another candidate or another election may follow.

Control of Israel's 120-seat Knesset requires a majority of 61 seats. That number matters because governments need enough parliamentary support to function and survive political votes. No single Israeli party has ever won an outright majority, so the winning side must usually assemble a coalition.

The election is especially complicated because about a dozen parties are widely thought to have a chance of crossing the 3.25% national-vote threshold. Each party that passes can receive seats according to its share of the vote. Even a party with only a few seats may therefore affect which larger bloc can build a majority.

The final number of seats was not yet known when the article was written. Officials were still counting regular ballots, soldiers' ballots, and diplomats' ballots. The final tally was expected by October 30, with formal results published November 4. Those results will determine the coalition arithmetic.

Proportional representation means voters' support is translated into Knesset seats for national party lists. The system gives parliamentary representation to multiple parties instead of awarding every seat to one winner. This matters because Israel's fragmented political field makes coalition bargaining central to forming a government.

The key mechanism is the electoral threshold. A party must receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to secure seats. Parties that clear the threshold then receive seats based on their relative strength in the national tally. Parties below it do not receive Knesset seats under the process described in the article.

About a dozen parties were thought to have a chance of crossing the threshold in this election. That uncertainty slows the count and makes every seat important. Once the final allocation is known, larger blocs will know which smaller parties might help them reach a governing majority.

A small party becomes a kingmaker when neither major bloc can reach a Knesset majority alone. Because Israel has 120 seats, a government generally needs support from at least 61. A party holding only a few seats can therefore decide which side reaches that number.

For example, suppose Netanyahu's bloc wins the most seats but remains below 61. A small party could join his coalition and supply the missing votes. It might instead support a rival arrangement, depending on negotiations. The article emphasizes that every Knesset seat counts and that small parties can have a big impact.

This role makes coalition talks potentially long and difficult. Parties negotiate over whether to participate and what governing arrangement they will support. After consultations, President Isaac Herzog chooses the person with the best chance of forming a government. If that attempt fails, the balance of smaller parties becomes important again.

Once the final votes and seat allocations are known, Israel's president begins the government-forming process. President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders about whom they want as prime minister. This matters because winning the most seats does not automatically produce a governing majority in Israel's coalition-based system.

Herzog then taps the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That judgment considers the available parliamentary support and the candidate's prospects in coalition negotiations. The nominee has up to 42 days to assemble a government from parties represented in the Knesset.

The process follows a delayed final count. Officials were tallying votes from the election, including ballots cast by Israeli soldiers and diplomats outside the country. The final vote tally was expected by October 30, and official results were due to be published November 4. Only then can coalition negotiations fully proceed.

The 42-day period is a deadline for the nominee to assemble a governing coalition. It is not enough to lead the election; the nominee must secure an arrangement that can govern with support in the Knesset. This reflects Israel's coalition system, where no single party has ever won an outright majority.

If the first nominee fails, other candidates can receive an opportunity to try. The process therefore does not end immediately when one coalition effort collapses. Party negotiations may continue as leaders seek combinations that can command enough parliamentary support.

If no government emerges, another election is called. Until then, the present Cabinet stays in place as a caretaker government. The article does not give a fixed date for a new election. Its timing would follow failed coalition efforts and the formal political process. The continuing vote count and possible seat changes could affect which candidate has the strongest path.

Parliamentary governments need enough lawmakers to support their governing program and keep the government functioning. If one party wins more than half the seats, it can usually govern alone. If no party reaches that level, parties must combine their seats and cooperate in a coalition.

Israel's system makes this especially important. Seats are distributed proportionally among national party lists, and parties need only 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset. That allows multiple parties to win representation. The article notes that no single Israeli party has ever won an outright majority, so coalitions have always been necessary.

This arrangement gives smaller parties unusual influence. A few seats can provide the difference between falling short and reaching a majority. After the election, leaders negotiate over a coalition, while President Isaac Herzog chooses the candidate with the best chance of forming one. If negotiations fail, another attempt or another election may follow.