Netanyahu and Eisenkot face difficult paths to power as neither set to win majority

A parliamentary majority means having at least 61 lawmakers supporting a government in Israel's 120-seat parliament. Neither leading side appears certain to reach that number alone. Therefore, winning the most seats does not automatically deliver the prime minister's office. The decisive task is building a coalition that can survive parliamentary votes.

Netanyahu's Likud emerged as the largest single party, while his existing alliance with ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties appeared just short of 61 seats. Eisenkot's opposition grouping also lacked a clear majority. Most Jewish opposition parties had pledged not to cooperate with Arab-majority lists, limiting his possible partners.

The result is an open bargaining process rather than a settled victory. Netanyahu may need to attract a smaller opposition party. Eisenkot may need Arab-led parties or another unusual arrangement. Uncounted absentee ballots, especially soldiers' votes, could still change the balance, and coalition talks may last weeks or months.

Control of Israel's parliament requires support from 61 lawmakers, because the Knesset has 120 seats. That threshold matters because a government needs enough parliamentary backing to function and pass votes. A party can lead the count yet still lack the support needed to form a government.

Netanyahu's Likud was the largest single party in the early results. His existing bloc, made up of Likud's partners including ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, appeared just short of 61 seats. The article does not provide an exact number. It also warns that early counting favored areas with strong right-wing support.

The picture could therefore shift. Many absentee ballots, mostly from Israeli soldiers, remained uncounted. Their inclusion was expected to take another day or two and could determine whether Netanyahu's bloc reaches 61 or must recruit a smaller opposition party. Until then, his apparent lead is not a complete governing mandate.

In Israel's fragmented political system, large parties often cannot govern by themselves. They must assemble a coalition of parties that together command at least 61 seats. That makes smaller parties important even when they win relatively few seats. Their support can decide who receives the chance to form the next government.

Netanyahu's bloc appeared close to, but below, the majority threshold. He therefore may need to persuade a smaller opposition party to join him. The usual bargaining tools include cabinet positions, budget commitments, or promises on particular policies. Eisenkot faces a tougher calculation because most Jewish opposition parties said they would not work with Arab-majority lists.

The final balance remained uncertain because absentee ballots had not been counted. Both leaders nevertheless told supporters they would form the next government. If neither can assemble a stable majority, negotiations could continue for weeks or months, with possible attempts to recruit defectors, form a minority government, or create a broader unity government.

The central political divide is between Netanyahu's pro-Netanyahu, right-wing bloc and the opposition seeking to prevent his return or continuation as prime minister. Netanyahu's partners include ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. Eisenkot represents the main opposition challenge through his Yashar party and its partners. Arab-led parties form another important group.

Netanyahu's side wants a strong national, right-wing government. Its recent direction has been described as hardline, religious, and nationalist. Eisenkot called instead for a Zionist government that would be stable and good for all Israeli citizens. Many opposition supporters want Israel more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values.

These blocs are not only competing over leadership. The election also reflects deeper arguments about Israel's identity and future. Netanyahu's coalition has been accused of stoking racism and hatred, while its opponents campaigned against continuing his leadership. Neither side appears able to govern without additional partners.

Arab-led parties could become kingmakers because their seats might supply the final support needed to reach 61 lawmakers. In a close parliament, they do not need to lead the election to determine its outcome. They could support a coalition, back it on key votes, or help another bloc attempt to form a government.

The article says Arab Israelis appeared to turn out in unprecedented numbers. They often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel and make up one-fifth of the population. Their parties equalled or improved on their previous record number of seats. That gives them possible leverage if the larger blocs remain short of a majority.

Working with them would be politically difficult for much of the opposition. Most Jewish opposition parties had pledged during the campaign not to cooperate with Arab-majority lists, saying they lacked shared values. The election could force those parties to choose between that pledge and the practical need to form a government.

A 61-seat majority is the clearest route, but the article describes several alternatives when no bloc can assemble one. Leaders can try to recruit individual lawmakers or smaller parties. They can also explore a minority government, which would govern without majority backing. Another possibility is a unity government joining rival camps.

The bargaining would likely involve promises of cabinet positions, budgets, or specific policies. Netanyahu may need a smaller opposition party because his bloc appears just short of the threshold. Eisenkot may need support from Arab-led parties, despite opposition campaign pledges against working with them. Both leaders have already claimed they will form the next government.

None of these outcomes was settled when the article was written. Absentee ballots, mostly from soldiers, remained uncounted and could alter the numbers. Veteran journalist Yaakov Katz said the political process might fail to produce a government quickly, leaving negotiations to continue for weeks or months.

Israel's proportional representation system allocates parliamentary seats broadly according to parties' support. This can give several parties representation, including smaller ideological, religious, nationalist, and Arab-led groups. The result is a fragmented parliament rather than one party automatically controlling the government. Israel's 120 seats therefore become pieces in coalition negotiations.

The article illustrates the mechanism directly. Likud emerged as the largest single party, but Netanyahu's existing partners still appeared just short of 61 seats. Eisenkot's opposition camp also lacked a majority. Each leader must therefore seek agreements with other parties. Smaller groups can demand influence because their seats may determine whether a coalition crosses the majority threshold.

This system makes election night only the beginning. Parties negotiate over cabinet positions, budgets, and policies after votes are counted. In this election, Arab-led parties could become especially important, while absentee ballots might change the totals. If bargaining fails, leaders may attempt a minority or unity government, and deadlock can persist for weeks or months.