Victoria’s 2026 state election could have ‘great consequences’ for politics across Australia. What do voters need to know?

A Victorian state election determines who represents voters in Victoria’s parliament. It decides which party or combination of parties forms the government, usually through control of the lower house. It also determines the composition of the upper house, which reviews and votes on proposed laws.

Voters choose lower-house candidates for their local districts and upper-house candidates for larger regions. The lower house is central to forming government, while both chambers participate in making Victorian laws. Upper-house voting has changed significantly for 2026 because group voting tickets were abolished.

The election formally begins on 3 November, when writs are issued and the government enters caretaker mode. Election day is Saturday 28 November. Almost 4.7 million Victorians are expected to be enrolled, making this the state’s largest electorate yet.

The Coalition’s route to government requires two things at once. It must defend every seat it already holds, then gain 16 additional seats. Losing even one existing seat would make the target harder, because the Coalition would need to make up that loss as well.

The article presents this as a major electoral challenge for the Liberals under Jess Wilson. They are trying to turn years of internal division into an electoral breakthrough. Their campaign therefore depends on both strong defence and a large number of successful challenges against Labor or other sitting members.

The result may not produce a simple two-party outcome. If One Nation wins enough support, it could hold the balance of power in the lower house. That would affect who can govern and the terms on which the Coalition, or another grouping, could pass legislation.

The election matters beyond Victoria because it could change the fortunes and strategies of major political forces across Australia. Antony Green, the ABC’s former election analyst, says its consequences for national politics could be greater than those of any state election in his lifetime. That makes the result unusually significant.

The Liberals are seeking a major breakthrough under Jess Wilson after years of internal division. At the same time, One Nation could win enough lower-house seats to hold the balance of power. A state result involving both a Liberal resurgence and One Nation influence would offer national parties important evidence about voter behaviour and political competition.

The consequences remain uncertain until preferences and seat results are known. The election formally begins on 3 November, with voting on 28 November. Its outcome could influence how parties across Australia approach internal unity, campaigning and cooperation with minor parties.

Holding the balance of power means One Nation would have enough lower-house seats to decide which side can command majority support. Neither major political grouping would be able to govern or pass important measures without support from the party, or without negotiating with it.

For example, One Nation could support a Liberal-led government on confidence and supply, or support particular government legislation. It could also refuse support unless its conditions were accepted. The exact arrangement would depend on the numbers after counting and on negotiations between the parties.

The article says this could happen for the first time in an Australian state involving Pauline Hanson’s party. Polling would need to translate into seats for that outcome to occur. If it does, One Nation could determine who governs Victoria and influence what policies or laws the government can pursue.

Lower-house elections use preferential voting. Voters rank candidates, beginning with their first preference. If no candidate has more than half the formal vote, the lowest-placed candidate is eliminated and that candidate’s ballots are transferred according to their next available preferences.

In a close contest, a candidate who leads on first preferences may not lead after those transfers. In a three-way race, the third-placed candidate’s preferences can be especially important. For instance, two major candidates might split the first-preference vote while a minor-party candidate finishes third and supplies the preferences that decide the final contest.

That makes election-night signals less certain. Early results may show who leads, but the winner may not be clear until preference distributions and further counting are completed. This matters in 2026 because One Nation could win support across enough seats to affect government formation.

The abolition of group voting tickets gives voters more direct control over upper-house preferences. Under the old system, a voter could choose one party above the line, and that party’s preferences were allocated if it was eliminated during counting.

The new system requires voters to make several preference choices themselves. Above the line, they must number at least five party groups in order. Below the line, they must number at least five individual candidates. Their numbered choices then guide how preferences are used during counting.

This is the most significant voting change for voters since the 2022 election. The change passed parliament in August, and the Victorian Electoral Commission will send more than 3 million information guides to households. Voters who do not understand the new instructions may find upper-house voting more demanding than before.

Preferential voting requires more than simply finishing first at the start. A candidate must receive a majority of formal votes after preferences are counted. If nobody reaches that threshold initially, the lowest-placed candidate is eliminated and their votes move to the next preferences marked by voters.

For example, a candidate could lead with 40% of first preferences while two rivals share the remaining votes. If one rival is eliminated, many of that candidate’s ballots may transfer to the other rival. The second candidate could then pass the leader and win a majority. The decisive support comes from voters’ later rankings.

This is why election results can remain unsettled after first-preference figures appear. Three-way contests are particularly difficult to identify early because the third candidate’s preferences may determine the final winner. The article links such contests to the broader uncertainty around the 2026 result.