No clear winner in Israel's first election since Hamas attack in 2023

The partial results showed a competitive race rather than a clear mandate. Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc had 55 seats. Eisenkot's opposition bloc had 49. Neither reached the 61 seats required to control Israel's 120-seat parliament.

The six-seat difference matters because Israel's government depends on parliamentary alliances. A bloc cannot govern alone unless it reaches a majority through its own parties or coalition partners. The Arab parties were projected to hold 16 seats, making them a possible source of support for the opposition.

That arithmetic pointed toward negotiations instead of an immediate winner. Eisenkot's bloc could reach a majority with the Arab parties, but he had said during the campaign that he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers. Netanyahu had taken the same position. Full results were expected by Thursday evening or Friday morning, while negotiations could last weeks.

A coalition government is formed when multiple parties agree to govern together. They combine their parliamentary seats and usually negotiate shared policies, ministerial roles, and other governing arrangements. This matters because the government needs majority support in parliament.

Israel's parliament has 120 seats, so a governing alliance needs at least 61. The partial count showed Netanyahu's bloc with 55 seats and Eisenkot's opposition bloc with 49. Neither bloc could reach the threshold alone. The projected 16 Arab-party seats could therefore become important coalition partners.

Coalition building is not automatic. Eisenkot said he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers, and Netanyahu held the same position. That leaves the blocs facing difficult choices. If negotiations fail, Israel could experience a prolonged stalemate. Until a new government is formed, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister.

A parliamentary majority means controlling more than half the seats. In Israel's 120-seat parliament, that requires 61 seats. This is the minimum needed to form a majority government and gives a governing alliance enough parliamentary strength to operate.

The partial results showed Netanyahu's bloc with 55 seats. Eisenkot's opposition bloc had 49. The Arab parties were projected to win 16 seats. On their own, neither main bloc reached 61. Netanyahu's bloc was six seats short, while Eisenkot's bloc was 12 seats short.

The figures explain why the election produced uncertainty rather than a clear government. Eisenkot's bloc could theoretically pass 61 by joining with the Arab parties, reaching 65 seats. However, Eisenkot had said he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers. Netanyahu had expressed the same position, so the numbers did not automatically translate into an agreement.

If no bloc can assemble a coalition, Israel may be left without a new governing majority immediately after the election. Parties would continue negotiating over support and coalition terms. The article says this process could take weeks because neither main bloc had reached 61 seats.

During that period, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister. The existing leadership does not disappear simply because the election has produced an uncertain result. Instead, a stalemate in forming a new government can extend the caretaker arrangement until a new one is formed.

This could benefit Netanyahu in the short term. The partial results showed his bloc ahead of Eisenkot's, with 55 seats compared with 49. But that lead did not give him a majority. The final outcome depended on coalition negotiations, the Arab parties' choices, and the full results expected by Thursday evening or Friday morning.

The Arab parties could become kingmakers because their projected seats might decide which larger bloc reaches a majority. Israel's parliament requires 61 seats. Eisenkot's bloc had 49, so adding the Arab parties' 16 projected seats would produce 65, enough to form a majority if they reached a coalition agreement.

Their influence comes from the seat arithmetic. Netanyahu's bloc had 55 seats, while Eisenkot's had 49. Without additional partners, neither could govern. The Arab parties' projected 16 seats were therefore more than a numerical detail. They could provide the support needed to cross the governing threshold.

The obstacle was political compatibility. Eisenkot said during the campaign that he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers. Netanyahu had echoed that position. This means the Arab parties had significant potential leverage, but their seats did not guarantee a coalition. Their role would depend on negotiations and the final results.

No single party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, according to the article. The country's parliamentary politics are fragmented, so seats are spread among several parties rather than concentrated in one. This makes coalition governments necessary for turning election results into a governing majority.

The current figures show how that system works. Netanyahu's bloc had 55 seats and Eisenkot's had 49, but 61 were needed. The projected 16 Arab-party seats could have supplied enough support to Eisenkot's bloc. Yet Eisenkot's stated refusal to govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers showed that seat totals alone do not settle the result.

This history shapes negotiations after every close election. Parties must decide whether to join, support, or reject possible alliances. The article expected weeks of talks, with Netanyahu potentially remaining caretaker prime minister. The full results were due by Thursday evening or Friday morning, but final government formation could take longer.

A parliamentary system links government formation to the legislature. Parties must assemble enough parliamentary support to govern. In a presidential system, the president is elected separately from the legislature and can usually form an executive without first building a parliamentary majority in the same way.

Israel's parliament has 120 seats, and a majority government requires 61. The partial results gave Netanyahu's bloc 55 seats and Eisenkot's bloc 49. Even if one bloc finished ahead, it would still need partners unless it crossed the majority threshold. The projected 16 Arab-party seats could therefore affect government formation.

This is why the party or bloc with the most seats can fail to govern alone. Netanyahu's bloc led the partial count but remained six seats short. Eisenkot's bloc could theoretically reach 65 with the Arab parties, but he had rejected governing with Israeli Arab lawmakers. Negotiations, not just first place, determine the outcome.