Coalition talks loom in Israel as Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs set to fall short of majority

Falling short of a majority means neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor Eisenkot’s opposition bloc controls enough Knesset seats to govern independently. Israel requires 61 seats for a majority government, so a bloc below that threshold cannot reliably pass legislation or survive confidence votes without outside support.

The immediate example is the Arab Israeli parties, projected to win 16–19 seats. Eisenkot and his allies could seek their support, despite Eisenkot’s call for a “Zionist majority.” Netanyahu could instead attract defectors, negotiate a unity government, or benefit if deadlock leads to another election.

The final balance remains uncertain because deployed soldiers and other absentee ballots had not been counted. Once counting ends, President Isaac Herzog will give a party leader six weeks to form a government. If that effort fails, the opportunity passes to the rival, while Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister.

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament. Its members hold seats that reflect the election result, and the government must secure support from at least 61 lawmakers to form a majority. That threshold matters because governing requires enough parliamentary backing to pass laws, approve key measures, and survive political challenges.

In this election, both major Jewish blocs appeared likely to fall short of 61 seats. That does not automatically end their prospects, but it means each must seek coalition partners. The projected 16–19 seats for Arab Israeli parties therefore became politically important, as did the possibility of defections between Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s camps.

The final seat count could still change after absentee ballots are tallied. President Isaac Herzog will then ask one leader to form a government within six weeks. If that attempt fails, the task passes to the rival, prolonging the uncertainty.

The Arab Israeli parties were projected to win 16–19 Knesset seats, heading for a record result. Their size matters because both Jewish blocs appeared short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. In a closely divided parliament, a bloc with nearly twenty seats can supply the support needed to cross the governing threshold.

Eisenkot’s Change bloc faced a direct choice. It could negotiate with the Joint List and Ra’am, or reject them in favor of a “Zionist majority.” Yair Golan urged negotiations, while Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said Arab parties could not be ignored and were ready to help remove Netanyahu’s government.

Their support could therefore determine who governs, even without joining a formal coalition. If Eisenkot refuses or negotiations fail, Netanyahu may gain time through a unity government, defections, new elections, or continued political deadlock.

After the remaining votes are counted, Israel enters a period of coalition bargaining if no bloc has a majority. The leading bloc cannot simply govern because it finished ahead; it must assemble enough parliamentary support to reach 61 seats and sustain a government.

President Isaac Herzog gives one party leader six weeks to form a government. If that leader fails, the opportunity passes to the rival. During this process, Netanyahu and Eisenkot are expected to try to attract defectors from each other’s camps, while also negotiating with potential coalition partners.

The outcome could be a coalition led by either politician, a unity government, or another election. Netanyahu would remain in office as caretaker prime minister until a new majority forms. He might benefit from another vote because some diaspora Israelis who returned to vote might not return again.

Israel’s president acts as the formal gatekeeper after the election. Once all votes are counted, Isaac Herzog decides which party leader should receive the first opportunity to form a government. The chosen leader then has six weeks to assemble a coalition with enough support for a majority.

The decision does not guarantee victory. A leader must negotiate with other parties, possibly attract defectors, and reach the 61-seat threshold. In this election, that could mean bargaining with Arab Israeli parties, opposing Jewish parties, or individual lawmakers. If the first leader cannot succeed, the chance moves to the rival.

Herzog’s role therefore starts the coalition process but does not settle it. Until a new majority is created, Netanyahu stays in office in a caretaker capacity. Continued failure could produce a unity government, more political bargaining, or another election.

A coalition with Arab Israeli parties is difficult because it crosses a major political and identity divide. Eisenkot declared victory around what he called a “Zionist majority,” appearing to rule out a broad coalition with Palestinian parties. That position narrows his options even though his bloc may need their seats to reach 61.

Yair Golan argued that refusing Arab votes would preserve Netanyahu’s distinction between Jewish and Arab citizens. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said Arab parties could not be ignored and offered to help remove Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich. Their support could be decisive, but negotiating with them would challenge the opposition’s campaign framing.

The choice also reflects deeper mistrust and racism in the political system. Noa Landau argued that Eisenkot had fallen into Netanyahu’s trap by making Zionism a coalition test. Rejecting Arab support could leave new elections or a unity government as alternatives.

Israel’s proportional voting system turns parliamentary elections into contests among multiple parties rather than a simple winner-takes-all race. Seats are distributed broadly according to parties’ vote shares. A bloc can finish first yet still lack the 61 seats needed to govern, especially when votes are spread across Jewish, Arab, religious, and other parties.

This election shows the mechanism clearly. Both Jewish blocs appeared short of a majority, while Arab Israeli parties were projected to win 16–19 seats. The bloc that negotiates successfully with those parties, attracts defectors, or reaches a unity deal can cross the governing threshold. Finishing first alone is not enough.

The same structure can create repeated elections when parties cannot agree on partners. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022, and the current deadlock could produce another vote. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while bargaining continues.