Israel’s Elections: What Happens Next?

The exit polls showed a nearly even contest between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc. Each was projected to hold around 51 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. That left both groups roughly ten seats short of a governing majority.

The balance mattered because Israel’s government needs support from at least 61 lawmakers. Neither side could immediately govern without winning allies. The opposition was initially given an edge, but the three mainstream television networks later showed the blocs essentially neck and neck.

The result pointed toward difficult negotiations. Netanyahu’s bloc had no obvious source of extra seats after several smaller right-wing parties failed to pass the parliamentary threshold. The opposition could consider Arab parties, a minority government, or a broader unity government, though each option carried serious political challenges.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, made up of 120 seats. Its composition determines which parties can support a government. Because 61 is more than half of 120, it is the threshold for a stable parliamentary majority.

Parties rarely win that many seats alone. They therefore negotiate after elections and combine their seats in a coalition. For example, a bloc projected at about 51 seats would need support from at least ten additional lawmakers to reach 61. Smaller parties can gain major influence by supplying those seats.

The election produced no clear majority. Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition were each around 51 seats, while Arab Israeli parties were projected to win 17 or 18 between them. Those figures made coalition bargaining central. If no candidate could assemble 61 supporters, Israel could face a minority government, a unity government, or new elections.

Israeli Arab lists made strong gains, with exit polls projecting 17 or 18 seats between them. Their importance came from the tight result. Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition were each near 51 seats, so either side would need additional support to approach the 61-seat majority.

Raam was the clearest example of this potential influence. Led by Mansour Abbas, it had previously become the first Arab party to join an Israeli government. The Joint List, another Arab movement, said it was unlikely to join a coalition outright but could provide a “safety net” to remove Netanyahu from power.

The Arab parties’ final role remained uncertain. Eisenkot’s camp had kept them at arm’s length during the campaign, while Netanyahu warned Jewish voters that an opposition victory could bring Arabs into government. Still, high Arab turnout was described as showing a strong desire for partnership.

Failing to reach 61 seats does not automatically end the government-formation process. A candidate can try to govern as the head of a minority government. Such a government would rely on ad hoc support from lawmakers outside its coalition, including potentially Arab Israeli parties.

Another possibility is a national unity government. Netanyahu could abandon some far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies and join with the opposition, although the article describes this as difficult because the opposition camp campaigned on removing him. If no agreement emerges, the country returns to the polls.

The president’s designated candidate has 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. Other procedures can delay an immediate election. Israel has already experienced repeated deadlock, holding four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 because politicians could not create a lasting coalition.

After the election, President Isaac Herzog names the lawmaker who appears most capable of forming a government. The choice is based on the candidate’s chances of assembling enough parliamentary support, not simply on which party wins the most seats.

This distinction matters in a fragmented parliament. A party can lead in seats yet lack dependable allies. Another candidate may have fewer seats but stronger coalition prospects. Herzog’s decision therefore starts the formal government-formation process while leaving the final outcome to negotiations among parties.

The designated candidate has, in principle, 28 days to build a coalition. A further 14-day extension may be possible. If the process fails, other procedures can delay an immediate election, but the country may ultimately return to the polls. The article notes that coalition talks previously took Netanyahu 58 days.

Israel’s repeated elections have followed political deadlock. Its parties often win enough seats to block one another but not enough to govern alone. Coalition negotiations then become difficult, especially when parties demand specific policy or community interests.

The article gives a clear recent example: Israel held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 because politicians could not forge a lasting coalition. Even when an agreement is reached, it may be unstable. Netanyahu took 58 days to form a government after the November 2022 election.

The latest result carried the same risk. Both main blocs were projected at about 51 seats, below the 61-seat majority. Possible outcomes included a minority government, a national unity government, or another election. The 2020 power-sharing deal between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz also collapsed after a year, triggering another vote.

Israel’s system divides parliamentary power among many parties. Voters elect Knesset lawmakers, and parties then negotiate to create a government supported by at least 61 seats. A coalition allows several parties to share power while pursuing their separate interests.

Support can also come from outside the cabinet. In a minority government, the governing bloc lacks 61 members but survives through ad hoc backing on particular votes. Raam showed how this can work when it became the first Arab party to join an Israeli government in the short-lived 2021-2022 coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

This flexibility can resolve a tied election, but negotiations are often arduous. Parties insist on parochial interests, and partnerships may collapse. A 2020 power-sharing agreement between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz included rotating leadership, yet the partnership fell apart after a year and caused another election.