EU defence chief warns of fuel crunch if Europe goes to war

Europe’s armies depend on steady supplies of jet fuel and diesel. In peacetime, military fuel consumption uses around 8% of total capacity, according to industry figures. A conflict could create a much larger demand very quickly. That makes production speed as important as fuel stored today.

The clearest example is NATO’s force model. During the first 10 days of a crisis, NATO would need to move and sustain 100,000 troops. Those forces would require fuel for aviation, vehicles, generators, and other operations. The article does not provide a precise volume, but Kubilius warned that consumption and production needs could surge.

Current supplies are considered sufficient, but Europe’s available wartime endurance is confidential. Refineries have also been closing or reducing capacity. Europe therefore needs domestic production that can expand quickly, while NATO improves storage and distribution infrastructure to maintain warfighting readiness.

Jet fuel is essential for military aviation. It powers the aircraft that provide transport, surveillance, air defence, and combat capability. Diesel supports other parts of military operations, including vehicles and backup electricity generation. The article specifically identifies diesel as a backup power source for military bases.

The difference matters because armed forces need both movement and fixed support. Aircraft cannot operate without jet fuel. Bases may need diesel-powered generators when normal energy supplies are disrupted. Fuel therefore connects frontline operations with the infrastructure behind them. It also supports wider mobility and the broader economy during a crisis.

European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said diesel and jet fuels are essential for mobility, the broader economy, and defence. NATO says production must support civil and military demand during conflict. This makes reliable refining and distribution important even while Europe pursues its emissions target.

The article does not state how many litres or tonnes of fuel NATO would need. It gives a demanding scenario instead: NATO’s force model requires moving and sustaining 100,000 troops during the first 10 days of a military crisis. That is why the precise scale cannot be calculated from the information provided.

Fuel use would rise because troops must be moved, supplied, and supported. Military aircraft would need jet fuel, while vehicles and generators would need diesel. Kubilius said current supplies are sufficient in peacetime, when military consumption represents around 8% of total capacity. He warned that a crisis could make demand “much bigger.”

Europe’s ability to withstand an aggressor with its current fuel load is classified. Kubilius could not give a duration. The practical message is that NATO needs flexible production, storage, and distribution, not merely a peacetime fuel supply.

Europe’s military capabilities depend on refined fuels, not crude oil alone. Jet fuel keeps aviation forces operating, while diesel supports mobility and backup generators at military bases. If refineries cannot produce enough, military forces could face shortages even if some crude oil remains available. The result would be less reliable operational support.

The risk is clearest during NATO’s planned crisis response. The alliance could need to move and sustain 100,000 troops in the first 10 days. That requires a rapid flow of fuel through refineries, storage sites, pipelines, and distribution networks. A production shortfall could make it harder to move forces, fly aircraft, or keep bases powered.

The article does not quantify the exact military loss or duration. It says Europe’s current fuel endurance is confidential. NATO’s €27 billion programme plan aims to modernise storage and distribution, particularly pipelines, to support warfighting readiness.

European refineries turn crude oil into products such as diesel and jet fuel. The article says many have closed or reduced capacity over several years. This has reduced Europe’s ability to produce refined fuels domestically, even though those fuels remain important for transport, the economy, and defence.

Two main pressures are identified. Ageing plants became less profitable, making continued operation harder to justify. Demand patterns also shifted, changing which refined products markets required and how much refining capacity was commercially useful. These trends affected the industry before the current defence concern became urgent.

The result is a tighter strategic position. Europe must decarbonise and has a binding target to cut emissions by 90% by 2040, but officials say ample conventional energy is needed now. The Commission is seeking conditions that support domestic production and the long-term viability of European refining.

A resilient fuel system would use several layers rather than one source. European refineries could provide domestic diesel and jet fuel. Imports could add supply when local production is insufficient. Reserves could cover immediate disruption, while pipelines and storage would move fuel to forces and bases. The article supports domestic production and NATO infrastructure, but does not set out a detailed import or reserve plan.

NATO’s €27 billion Fuel Supply Chain Capability Programme Plan is the concrete example. Approved in July, it aims to modernise existing fuel storage and distribution infrastructure. This includes pipelines in the alliance’s eastern and south-eastern neighbourhoods. The mechanism is straightforward: more capable infrastructure helps deliver available fuel where forces need it.

Current supplies are sufficient in peacetime, but conflict could sharply increase demand. Europe must therefore balance conventional fuel availability with decarbonisation. NATO says allies have committed to continued access to supplies for both civil and military needs.

Crude oil is a raw energy material, not the finished fuel used by most aircraft, vehicles, or generators. An oil refinery is a plant that converts crude into refined products. The article names diesel and jet fuel as two important outputs. Refining matters because militaries need these usable fuels for aviation, mobility, and base power.

In basic terms, refineries heat and process crude oil, then separate and treat its components to produce fuels with different properties. Jet fuel is made suitable for aircraft engines, while diesel is made suitable for engines and generators. The article gives the overall conversion but does not describe these technical stages in detail.

Europe’s refining capacity has fallen as ageing plants became less profitable and demand patterns changed. That creates a strategic concern because current peacetime supplies may not meet wartime demand. The Commission is discussing how to maintain domestic production while Europe reduces emissions.