Arab parties ‘have woken up’: Israel's uncertain election may deliver surprise kingmakers

“Kingmakers” are parties whose support determines who can govern when no major bloc wins a majority. Arab parties would not necessarily lead the government, but their lawmakers could become essential to forming or supporting one.

The Knesset has 120 seats, so a government needs 61. The article projects the Joint List and Ra’am to win about 19 seats, making their support potentially decisive. Eisenkot could invite them into a coalition, or seek their backing from outside it.

That influence would come with political costs and difficult negotiations. Netanyahu warned against a government relying on “anti-Zionist Arab parties.” Eisenkot could also alienate Jewish voters, especially on the right. Cooperation would require agreement on major issues, potentially including the occupation of the West Bank.

The projected Arab-party total was about 19 lawmakers. That would be nearly double the 10 seats won by the Arab bloc in Israel’s 2022 election, according to the article. The result was linked to unusually high Arab voter participation.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats. A bloc needs at least 61 seats to control it and form a majority government. The Arab parties’ projected total is therefore large enough to matter greatly, even though it is well short of a majority on its own.

Their seats could become decisive because neither Netanyahu’s right-wing, religious bloc nor Eisenkot’s Change bloc appeared likely to reach 61. The parties could join a coalition or support a minority government. Either path would require negotiations over political priorities and conditions.

A government needs 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The election count showed neither major camp approaching that threshold, so neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s bloc could govern alone. This created uncertainty despite confident victory claims from both leaders.

With more than 85 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu and his allies hovered around 53 percent, while Eisenkot’s Change bloc was just under 50 percent. These figures did not translate into a clear 61-seat majority for either side. Other parties, especially Arab parties, held the balance.

The final result therefore depended on negotiations rather than only on which leader led the count. The Joint List and Ra’am were projected to win about 19 seats. Their support could help Eisenkot form a coalition or maintain a minority government, though cooperation would be politically difficult.

Arab support could give Eisenkot a path toward governing when his own bloc lacks 61 seats. The parties might enter his coalition, gaining direct influence over government decisions, or support it in parliament without formally joining. That second arrangement would produce a minority government.

The article identifies Ra’am as the more plausible partner because it has previously been in a coalition and has signalled possible cooperation. A minority government would still need Arab backing on important votes. Eisenkot would also need a shared political programme, potentially including ending the occupation of the West Bank.

The consequences would be politically risky. Netanyahu warned against relying on Arab parties, while the article says cooperation could alienate Jewish voters, especially on the right. Talks with the Joint List could be harder because its parties would not accept Eisenkot simply dictating conditions.

Israel’s Arab citizens are mainly of Palestinian descent, according to the article. They represent around 21 percent of Israel’s population. Historically, Arab voter turnout has usually been lower than turnout among other Israelis, limiting the parliamentary strength of their parties.

The election featured two named Arab political forces: the Joint List and Ra’am, also called the United Arab List. The Joint List is described as an alliance of Arab nationalist and left-wing parties. Ra’am is described as moderate Islamist and previously participated in Naftali Bennet’s coalition in 2021.

Their projected strength changed the election’s balance. More than 77 percent of voters turned out, the highest turnout in almost three decades. The Arab parties were projected to send about 19 lawmakers, compared with only 10 seats won by the Arab bloc in 2022.

Eisenkot set four conditions for cooperation: recognising Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting its declaration of independence, extending conscription to Palestinian citizens of Israel, and denouncing Hamas as a terrorist group. These demands address identity, citizenship, military duty, and security.

The Joint List rejected the idea that Eisenkot could simply dictate terms. Amjad Shbita said the conditions would not work with the Joint List. Ra’am, which is more moderate Islamist and previously joined a coalition, has signalled that cooperation might be possible. The two Arab forces therefore may not respond alike.

The West Bank adds another major obstacle. Any shared programme might potentially include ending the occupation, an extremely sensitive issue in Israel. Eisenkot also risks alienating Jewish voters, particularly on the right. Even a minority-government agreement would require delicate negotiations and a workable programme.

Israel uses nationwide proportional representation, a point not explained in detail by the article but essential to understanding its election. Parties receive Knesset seats broadly according to their share of the vote, rather than one party winning every seat in separate local districts. This commonly produces several parliamentary groups.

The article shows the practical effect: the Knesset has 120 seats, but neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s bloc was projected to reach the 61-seat majority. Smaller parties therefore matter because their seats can complete a governing coalition. A party does not need to lead nationally to become influential.

The Arab parties illustrate this leverage. Their projected 19 seats could help Eisenkot form a coalition or support a minority government. That influence is not automatic power. It depends on negotiations over Israel’s identity, military conscription, Hamas, and the West Bank, while larger parties weigh voter reactions.