Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu rivals weigh joining forces with Arab parties

A majority means control of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Without it, no party or alliance has enough parliamentary support to reliably form a government and pass measures. The result is political uncertainty rather than an automatic winner.

The emerging figures illustrate the problem. Local media projected 53 seats for Likud and its allies, 48 for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar bloc and allies, and 19 for Arab-led parties. Neither main bloc reached 61. Eisenkot’s side could potentially add Arab-led parties, but that partnership is politically difficult.

The president may ask a leader to try forming a government, but negotiations could last weeks. If every possible combination fails, Israel could hold new elections early next year. The country previously held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 after a similar stalemate.

The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, has 120 seats. A majority government therefore needs at least 61 seats. This threshold matters because a government must command enough parliamentary support to govern rather than merely lead the largest individual party.

The election’s projected numbers showed why the arithmetic is so important. Likud and allied parties were projected to hold 53 seats. Yashar and allied parties were projected to hold 48, while Arab-led parties were projected to hold 19. No bloc reached the 61-seat mark on its own.

That gap turns smaller parties into potential kingmakers. Eisenkot’s coalition could potentially reach a majority by working with Arab-led parties, although some likely partners oppose that idea. If no agreement reaches 61 seats, the president may seek another governing arrangement, or Israel may return to elections early next year.

Netanyahu’s rivals may need Arab-led parties because neither major bloc was projected to reach the 61 seats required for a majority. Arab-led parties were projected to hold 19 seats, making them potentially decisive in coalition arithmetic. Without some of those seats, opponents may be unable to form a government.

Gadi Eisenkot left the door open to cooperation under conditions. Arab-led partners would need to recognize Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group. However, some of Eisenkot’s likely partners have already ruled out an alliance. Netanyahu has called the idea of partnering with Arab parties treasonous and warned of a dangerous government that includes them.

The choice is therefore practical and political. Cooperation could remove Netanyahu from office, but it could also split the opposition and alienate voters. The parties must decide whether defeating Netanyahu outweighs their objections to a partnership.

After an inconclusive election, Israel’s president helps start the government-formation process. The president can task a party leader with trying to assemble a coalition. The largest party is usually best placed, but the president is not required to choose its leader. This matters when coalition possibilities do not match party size.

Here, Likud was projected to remain the largest party and best placed to be tapped. Yet President Isaac Herzog could consider whether another leader has a better path to 61 seats. The article says he urged everyone to avoid another election after the vote.

The president cannot simply create a majority. The chosen leader must negotiate with other parties and secure enough support in the Knesset. If those talks fail, another leader or another election may become necessary. Final results, including absentee ballots, were still pending by Wednesday.

If no group can assemble a coalition with at least 61 seats, the election produces no workable majority government. Negotiations may continue, but repeated failures leave the country facing another vote. That possibility matters because Israel has recently experienced several elections caused by parliamentary stalemates.

The current projections show the danger. Likud and allied parties were projected to have 53 seats, while Yashar and allied parties were projected to have 48. Arab-led parties held the remaining projected seats, but cooperation with them remains controversial. Without an agreement across blocs, neither side reaches 61.

The article says new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 after a similar impasse. It is uncertain whether Israelis abroad would again return to vote or whether Arab voters would again turn out in large numbers.

Arab-led parties’ role is sensitive because the article describes issues involving Palestinians and their descendants as extremely difficult in Israel. Their constituents make up 20% of the country’s population. That makes their political participation significant, while also connecting coalition debates to questions of identity, security, and Israel’s relationship with Palestinians.

The election exposed that tension directly. Netanyahu said partnering with Arab parties would be treasonous and warned against a dangerous government that included them. Eisenkot was more open, but only if potential partners recognized Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as an extremist group. Arab-led parties have ruled out partnership with Netanyahu.

These positions make the parties both important and controversial. They may hold enough seats to help an opposition coalition reach 61, yet some opponents reject working with them. The result is a difficult choice between electoral arithmetic and deeply contested political principles.

Israel’s system gives voters party choices rather than a direct vote for one national leader. Seats are then distributed among competing parties, so one party may win the most votes without controlling a majority of parliament. Governing usually requires several parties to cooperate. This creates bargaining after nearly every close election.

The current result shows the mechanism. Likud was projected as the largest party, but Likud and allied parties had only 53 seats. Yashar and allied parties had 48, while Arab-led parties had 19. Because neither main bloc reached 61, the parties must negotiate over a coalition, including whether to cooperate across major political divides.

This structure can broaden representation, but it can also produce deadlock. If parties cannot agree on a majority coalition, the president may try another leader. If that also fails, new elections may follow. Israel’s five elections between 2019 and 2022 demonstrate how stalemates can repeat.