4 takeaways from Israel's inconclusive election

An inconclusive election produces no clear governing winner. The leading party may still lack enough seats to control parliament, so the result does not immediately identify Israel’s next prime minister. This matters because the government must command parliamentary support to pass laws and remain in office.

Initial results put Netanyahu’s Likud in first place, but his religious and ultranationalist bloc fell short of 61 seats. Parties opposing him may collectively hold a majority, yet they include Arab-led factions that some Jewish-led parties reject as coalition partners.

Final official results were expected Thursday or Friday, followed by potentially weeks of negotiations. Netanyahu could be asked first to form a government, while his opponents could seek a Jewish-Arab alliance. If no coalition succeeds, another election remains possible, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats. A majority therefore requires at least 61 seats, which is one more than half the legislature. That threshold matters because a prime minister needs dependable parliamentary backing to form and sustain a government.

The article reports that Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist coalition failed to reach 61 seats. It previously held 68 seats, so the decline weakened his position. Likud also appeared to fall from 32 seats to around 27, although it still seemed to be the largest individual party.

Missing the majority does not automatically remove Netanyahu from office. He can try to recruit an opposition party or individual defectors. His rivals face the same arithmetic problem, especially because some Jewish-led parties oppose partnering with Arab-led factions. Negotiations will determine whether 61 seats can be assembled.

A coalition falling short of 61 seats creates a negotiation problem, not an instant change of prime minister. Likud still appears to be Israel’s largest party, so Netanyahu is likely to be tasked first with forming a government. Until a successor is chosen, he can remain in office as caretaker prime minister.

Netanyahu would need support from at least one opposition party or several opposition defectors. He could offer concessions and argue that a broad government under his leadership is preferable to one dependent on Arab-led parties. His political experience also helps him exploit divisions among opponents.

Most opposition parties have promised not to join Netanyahu, making his path difficult. But negotiations can change political calculations. If his rivals cannot build a coalition either, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister during another election campaign, giving him time to attack opponents and seek new support.

The opposition is not one unified party. It includes Gadi Eisenkot’s Jewish allies, other parties opposed to Netanyahu, and Arab-led factions. The article specifically names the Arab Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, but it does not provide a complete list of opposition parties.

Arab-led parties matter because initial results suggest that Netanyahu’s opponents collectively won a parliamentary majority. However, Jewish-led parties have often refused to partner with them. Only one Arab party has ever joined an Israeli governing coalition, in 2021, and that government lasted about 18 months.

That history makes Arab-led factions potential kingmakers. Eisenkot and his Jewish allies have no clear route to 61 seats without them, yet cooperation could alienate voters and other opposition groups. Distrust is especially strong after October 7 and the resulting wars, while Netanyahu is likely to portray such a partnership as illegitimate or treasonous.

When no political group can assemble 61 seats, Israel faces a prolonged government-formation crisis. Negotiations may continue for weeks, because parties must decide whether to compromise, switch alliances, or support a unity government. The uncertainty delays a clear decision about who will lead the country.

The article gives two possible routes. Netanyahu could attract an opposition party or defectors by offering concessions. Alternatively, Gadi Eisenkot and his allies could try to work with Arab-led parties. A broad unity government is another possibility, though joining Netanyahu could be viewed as betraying opposition voters.

If every route fails, another election cannot be ruled out. Netanyahu would stay on as caretaker prime minister during the campaign. The article notes that some Israelis who flew in for this election might not return, and Netanyahu would retain a platform to criticize opponents and seek to enlarge his coalition.

This was Israel’s first election since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack. The vote therefore tested more than party platforms. It became a judgment on Netanyahu’s nearly unbroken 17-year rule and on competing visions for Israel’s future. The attack and its aftermath created powerful security and accountability concerns.

Initial results suggest Netanyahu lost support. The article links that decline to anger over his handling of October 7 and the aftermath, as well as the security breakdown that unfolded on his watch. The country was also embroiled in multiple wars, increasing pressure on the government and sharpening public divisions.

Yet Netanyahu was not defeated outright. He retained much of his support and could claim a political victory of sorts. His coalition still fell short of 61 seats, while Likud declined from 32 seats to around 27. The results show voters punished him to some degree but did not clearly reject his leadership.

Israel’s proportional-representation system generally distributes parliamentary seats among multiple parties rather than awarding most seats to one winner. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs 61. Because votes are divided across many political groups, one party usually cannot reach that threshold alone.

The election results illustrate the mechanism. Likud appeared to be the largest party, with around 27 seats, far below 61. Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist allies together also fell short. His bloc therefore must seek support from another party or from opposition defectors to govern.

This system makes coalition bargaining central to Israeli politics. Parties must trade policy commitments and decide which partners they can accept. In this election, the opposition’s possible majority includes Arab-led factions that some Jewish-led parties reject. If no acceptable combination reaches 61 seats, negotiations may fail and another election may follow.