No outright winner emerges in Israeli election, but Netanyahu defies expectations

Israel's parliament has 120 seats, so a government needs support from at least 61 lawmakers to command a majority. Winning more seats than any rival bloc is not enough when several parties divide the chamber. Netanyahu's bloc led the count but remained nine seats short of the threshold.

With nearly 86 per cent counted, broadcasters projected 53 seats for Netanyahu's right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Eisenkot's opposition bloc was projected to win 48. Arab parties were projected to take 19 seats, making them potentially decisive in coalition talks.

Netanyahu could still remain caretaker prime minister while parties negotiate. He would need to attract additional lawmakers or secure outside support to form a regular government. Eisenkot faced the same arithmetic problem, but many Jewish political leaders reject broad backing from Arab parties, making his route to power especially difficult.

The Knesset is Israel's national parliament. It has 120 seats, which are divided among parties after an election. A majority means holding more than half the seats, so the practical threshold is 61. That support helps a government pass legislation and survive parliamentary challenges.

The election illustrates why the number matters. Broadcasters projected 53 seats for Netanyahu's bloc and 48 for Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc. Both were below 61. The remaining seats, including 19 projected for parties representing Arab Israelis, could therefore determine who forms a government.

If no bloc reaches 61 alone, parties must negotiate a coalition. Netanyahu's bloc would need at least eight additional seats or dependable support. Eisenkot's bloc would need even broader backing. Until that happens, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister, with formal powers but a stated duty of restraint.

The projected result divided the Knesset among three important groupings. Netanyahu's right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox bloc was forecast to win 53 seats. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc was forecast to win 48. Parties representing Arab Israelis were forecast to win 19, an unprecedented total.

Those figures add up to all 120 seats. Neither main bloc reached the 61-seat majority. The 19 Arab-party seats therefore became politically important, especially because Eisenkot's bloc had no realistic path to power without broad backing from them.

The distribution also showed a strong performance for Netanyahu among Jewish voters, despite his bloc losing its parliamentary majority. It exposed the challenge of forming a government in a divided parliament. Results could still change as counting continued, but the projected balance already pointed to difficult coalition negotiations and possible prolonged caretaker rule.

Israel does not automatically get a new governing coalition when votes are counted. If no bloc has 61 seats, parties negotiate over whether they can jointly support a government. The process can leave the existing government in place temporarily, even though it no longer has a new electoral mandate.

Here, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to hold 53 seats, while Eisenkot's bloc had 48. Both needed partners. During negotiations, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister. Guy Lurie said a caretaker government formally has the same powers as a regular government, but also a duty of restraint and less discretion in some areas.

That arrangement could last until a coalition is formed or potentially until another election next year. The caretaker government still retains powers, including over the war with Iran. Eisenkot warned that Netanyahu might use security for political ends, while Netanyahu's office rejected such accusations in the past.

Eisenkot's opposition bloc could try to assemble a coalition larger than its own projected 48 seats. Its possible route would involve negotiating with parties outside the bloc, especially the parties representing Arab Israelis, which were projected to win 19 seats. It could also seek support from individual lawmakers or parties that share opposition to Netanyahu.

The central mechanism is parliamentary arithmetic. Eisenkot needed at least 13 more seats to reach 61. Arab parties held enough projected seats to close that gap, but their support would need to be broad and politically acceptable to coalition partners. The opposition bloc itself ranged from the centre-left to the hard right, showing that it already crossed ideological lines.

The article describes Eisenkot's path as having little realistic prospect without broad Arab backing. Many Jewish political leaders reject that option. If negotiations failed, Netanyahu would continue as caretaker prime minister, potentially until another election next year.

The article does not name the individual Arab parties. It describes them collectively as parties representing Arab Israelis. Arab Israelis make up more than a fifth of Israel's population, and turnout among Israelis of Palestinian descent was particularly high in this election.

Their importance comes from the seat count. The parties were projected to win 19 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc had 53 and Eisenkot's had 48. Eisenkot therefore had no realistic path to the 61-seat majority without broad backing from Arab parties. Their support could provide the numbers needed for a coalition or another form of parliamentary support.

The political obstacle is substantial. Many Jewish political leaders reject broad backing from Arab parties. That makes their seats numerically decisive but politically difficult to use. Their projected success also signalled strong participation among Arab citizens and added uncertainty to the coalition negotiations.

Under proportional representation, parliamentary seats are distributed among parties according to their electoral support rather than awarded entirely to one nationwide winner. This allows smaller political groups to enter the Knesset. Israel's 120-seat system can therefore produce many parties and competing blocs.

The election shows the mechanism clearly. Netanyahu's bloc combined right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, yet was projected to hold only 53 seats. Eisenkot's bloc brought together parties from the centre-left to the hard right and still reached just 48. Arab parties added another 19 seats.

Because no group reached 61, parties must bargain to form a coalition. That can bring together ideologically different partners, but it can also make governments fragile or delay their formation. In this case, the fragmented result left Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister while negotiations continued, with another election possible next year.