Israel election latest update: Who will form the next government as Netanyahu, Eisenkot fall short?

Israel's government must win the support of at least 61 Knesset members. That is more than half of the 120-seat parliament. A party leader therefore cannot govern simply because their party is the largest. They need partners or outside support to pass the majority threshold.

Early results put Netanyahu's right-wing bloc at about 53–54 seats. Eisenkot's bloc is projected to have around 49. Neither figure reaches 61. Likud is the largest single party, with an estimated 26 seats, but Likud alone is far from a majority.

The remaining parties could decide the outcome. The Joint List and other Arab parties could hold as many as 19 seats, although Eisenkot has opposed working with Arab parties. Netanyahu's allies have also discussed a broad government including Eisenkot and centrist leaders. Final figures may change, and negotiations could last weeks.

The Knesset is Israel's parliament, made up of 120 seats. In these elections, parties compete for those seats, and the results determine which political groupings can support a government. The largest party does not automatically receive power. Its leader must show that enough lawmakers will back the proposed government.

The key number is 61, which is more than half of 120. A bloc with 61 seats can form a majority on its own. A bloc below that number must negotiate with other parties, either bringing them into a coalition or securing their support for the government.

The early figures explain the uncertainty. Netanyahu's bloc has about 53–54 seats, and Eisenkot's has around 49. Both are below 61. The Joint List and other parties may therefore become important, because their seats could help one side reach the majority needed in the Knesset.

The early count shows no clear majority. Netanyahu's coalition is expected to win around 54 seats, although some estimates put it at 53. Eisenkot's bloc is projected to win about 49 seats. Both numbers are below the 61 seats needed to control the 120-member Knesset.

Two Arab parties could together secure as many as 19 seats. Their possible strength is especially important because the main blocs are short of a majority. Likud remains the largest single party, with an estimated 26 seats, but that total does not give Netanyahu's wider coalition enough support by itself.

These are not final results. Nearly 90 per cent of votes had been counted by Wednesday evening, and the remaining votes could change the figures. Final results were expected by Thursday evening. After that, negotiations could last weeks as party leaders seek enough support to form a government.

The Joint List matters because neither major bloc appears able to reach 61 seats alone. When the leading groups fall short, a smaller alliance can become decisive. Its lawmakers may provide support that allows one political leader to assemble a government or defeat an alternative in the Knesset.

The alliance has said it will do everything in its power to remove Netanyahu from office. That statement leaves open possible support for an Eisenkot-led effort. Two Arab parties could together win as many as 19 seats, giving them substantial influence in coalition negotiations.

The obstacle is political compatibility. Eisenkot has opposed working with Arab parties and said he wants a government that is Zionist and committed to universal military conscription. Most Jewish parties have also been reluctant to work with Arab parties. The Joint List could therefore be numerically crucial without being invited into an opposition-led government.

President Isaac Herzog becomes the next key actor after the election results are final. He consults representatives from the parties and then gives one political leader the first opportunity to form a government. This step starts the formal process of coalition building.

The chosen leader does not receive power automatically. They must negotiate with other parties and secure sufficient support in the Knesset. Since 61 seats are needed for a majority, the leader will need agreements with coalition partners or enough outside backing. The largest party's leader is not automatically selected as prime minister.

The process could be difficult in this election. Netanyahu's bloc is projected at about 53–54 seats, and Eisenkot's at around 49. Both need additional support. Herzog's decision will therefore begin talks, but it will not guarantee success. The negotiations could last weeks, and a deadlock could lead to another election.

The main route to a majority is a coalition agreement. Netanyahu's allies have discussed a broad government involving Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and other centrist leaders. Another route could involve support from the Joint List or other Arab parties. Either arrangement might help a bloc move from fewer than 61 seats to a workable majority.

Eisenkot faces a particularly narrow path. He has said Netanyahu is unfit to lead and has opposed working with Arab parties. He also wants a government committed to universal military conscription. Bringing ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties into such a government could be difficult because of their position in the political landscape.

That leaves Eisenkot balancing incompatible choices. Cooperation with Arab parties would conflict with his stated position, while cooperation with ultra-Orthodox parties could conflict with his military-service demand. A broad government with Netanyahu might keep Netanyahu prime minister, even after coalition losses, making the agreement politically difficult for Eisenkot.

If party negotiations fail, no new coalition can secure the support needed to govern. The parties may continue talking, but the process can end in a stalemate. The article says Israel could then hold another election, sending voters back to decide the parliamentary balance again.

Before that possibility, the Knesset is due to open on November 10. Even without a new government, Netanyahu's opponents could gain greater influence over parliamentary proceedings. This means political activity would continue, although the central question of who can command a majority would remain unresolved.

The uncertainty begins after final results are announced. Herzog will choose which political leader gets the first chance to form a government, and that leader will negotiate with other parties. The talks could take weeks and may not succeed. Netanyahu's latest setback does not automatically end his time in office, because his opponents must still unite and secure enough support.