Tokayev Proposes Dipping Into National Fund to Turn Kazakhstan into a ‘Big Construction Site’

Tokayev’s proposal is a broad national construction program, not one single building project. It covers roads, railways, air transport, energy facilities, and social projects. He called the initiative a “People’s Construction Project.” The aim is to accelerate Kazakhstan’s development by using the National Fund for major investment through 2029.

The plan includes the Bakhty-Ayagoz rail line, the Aral-Caspian Highway, expanded air corridors, and new energy capacity. Tokayev also wants Kazakhstan to achieve a “sustainable energy surplus” by 2029. Social projects would receive 1.5 trillion tenge from 2026 through the first two months of 2027.

Overall funding would come from a proposed 6.5 trillion tenge withdrawal from the National Fund. This abandons the earlier goal of raising that fund’s assets to $100 billion by 2030. The scale signals a major shift toward spending now on infrastructure and public needs.

The National Fund is Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund. It was created in 2000 to hold money generated from the country’s oil and gas sector. Its resources come from tax revenues paid by oil and gas companies. The fund therefore connects Kazakhstan’s energy income with national financial planning.

Tokayev wants the government to withdraw 6.5 trillion tenge from it for construction and social projects. That money could finance roads, railways, energy infrastructure, and other development priorities. The proposal treats the fund as a source of investment for the wider economy, rather than leaving all its assets untouched.

The fund currently holds around $66.7 billion, according to RFE/RL as cited in the article. Tokayev’s proposal scraps an earlier goal of reaching $100 billion by 2030. This changes the balance between saving oil revenues and spending them on development.

The proposed withdrawal is exceptionally large in relation to the fund’s reported holdings. Tokayev wants 6.5 trillion tenge, or approximately $14.4 billion at the article’s exchange rate, to finance projects through 2029. The article says this represents more than 21 percent of the National Fund.

The comparison is based on reported fund assets of around $66.7 billion. In practical terms, the government would spend more than one-fifth of the sovereign wealth fund on construction, energy, logistics, and social initiatives. A separate 1.5 trillion tenge allocation would support social projects from 2026 through the first two months of 2027.

The proposal also replaces the previous target of growing the fund to $100 billion by 2030. That means the government is prioritizing near-term investment over that earlier accumulation goal. The exact effect depends on project results and future revenues, neither of which the article quantifies.

Using the money could give Kazakhstan faster improvements in infrastructure and public services. Better roads, railways, and energy capacity could support trade and domestic development. Social spending could also address public needs. These are the intended benefits of Tokayev’s “People’s Construction Project,” although the article does not measure expected economic returns.

The key mechanism is direct public investment from the National Fund. The government would transfer 6.5 trillion tenge into projects through 2029, including logistics, energy, and social initiatives. This would turn accumulated oil and gas revenues into physical infrastructure and public spending rather than preserving them as financial assets.

The trade-off is a smaller fund and less progress toward the former $100 billion target for 2030. Future governments could have a thinner reserve if revenues weaken or projects underperform. The article also warns that centralization concentrates both wealth and risk, making oversight and project quality important.

Logistics matters because Kazakhstan is emphasizing roads, railways, and air transport as engines of development. Better connections can make cargo movement faster and help the country capture more activity along regional trade routes. Tokayev said “huge profits” are flying past Kazakhstan through underdeveloped air corridors.

The Bakhty-Ayagoz rail line will connect Ayagoz in eastern Kazakhstan to the Chinese border. It is expected to be completed by the end of 2027. The Aral-Caspian Highway, whose construction began in August, is intended to shorten the Trans-Caspian Corridor route by about 1,000 kilometers and reduce delivery time to three days.

These projects could strengthen Kazakhstan’s role in transit and trade. Their value will depend on construction quality and effective management. Tokayev highlighted roads as a perennial public complaint and criticized central and local executive bodies for repeatedly mishandling the issue.

Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund is built from tax revenues paid by oil and gas companies. That dependence makes energy income central to public finance. It also creates pressure to use resource wealth for development while preparing for a broader energy future. The proposed withdrawal would spend part of that accumulated revenue on infrastructure and social needs.

Tokayev wants Kazakhstan to achieve a “sustainable energy surplus” by 2029. He named a wide mix of sources, including “clean coal” and renewables such as solar. He also called nuclear power “of fundamental importance” and praised the approval of a 2024 referendum on the issue.

This approach links today’s oil and gas revenues to tomorrow’s energy capacity. It could reduce pressure on current supplies and support industrial growth, but the article does not provide production targets or costs. It notes that the nuclear referendum took place under heavy government pressure on critics of nuclear power.

Centralizing investment decisions can make policy more coordinated. Tokayev criticized departments and individuals for taking “chaotic and uncoordinated” actions. A single center could set clearer priorities for infrastructure, attract global and domestic companies, and reduce conflicts between government bodies.

The mechanism would be stronger central control over investment policy and project pathways. Tokayev also said the government’s role in critical minerals should be significantly strengthened. He warned that new businesses should not obstruct existing companies, including Qarmet, while similar facilities are planned in three other regions.

The risk is that more authority also concentrates wealth and potential failure. The article says this may raise red flags for investors. A 2025 U.S. State Department report noted licensing, taxation, legal, ownership, and regulatory difficulties. Centralization could improve coordination, but it may also intensify bureaucratic control and investor uncertainty.