Europe’s oil bill: EU pays €10bn more per month than in 2025

An oil import bill is the total amount a country or region pays for petroleum oil bought from abroad. It depends on both the quantity imported and the price per tonne. This matters because a higher bill can strain consumers, businesses, and national trade finances even when oil use changes little.

The EU imported about 36.7 million tonnes monthly in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 36.3 million tonnes in 2025. Yet its average monthly bill jumped from €17.7 billion to €27.6 billion. The price per tonne rose from €487 to €750, creating the much larger bill.

The main mechanism was the surge in global crude prices after Middle East tensions disrupted supplies. The EU therefore paid far more for nearly the same volume. That pressure reached drivers through higher petrol and diesel prices and may also raise transport, food, heating, and manufacturing costs.

The EU’s petroleum oil import costs rose sharply in 2026. Average monthly spending reached €27.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with €17.7 billion in 2025. That was an increase of €9.9 billion each month, or 55.8%.

The striking contrast is the small change in volume. Monthly imports increased from 36.3 million tonnes to 36.7 million tonnes, a rise of only 1.2%. Across the full second quarter, spending reached €82.7 billion, up from €50.3 billion a year earlier. Volumes rose from 105.2 million to 110.2 million tonnes.

The difference came from prices, not substantially greater purchases. The EU paid €750 per tonne in the second quarter, compared with €487 previously. This nearly returned the cost to its 2022 peak and made oil responsible for 95% of the increase in the wider energy import bill.

Imported oil became much more expensive because global supply grew less secure while demand remained strong. The article links the sharp rise mainly to tensions in the Middle East, including the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran. These events disrupted production and deliveries to world markets.

The Strait of Hormuz was especially important. Around 20 million barrels of oil and oil products crossed it daily in 2025, equal to about 20% of global consumption. Tanker traffic sometimes returned to normal levels but then fell again. Brent crude’s quarterly average was 49.5% higher than in 2025, a rise of $34 per barrel.

Europe also competed with Asian buyers, particularly China, for available supplies. Because the EU imports 90–95% of its oil from outside the bloc, it felt global price increases directly. Experts therefore did not expect costs to fall soon while supply remained uncertain and demand stayed strong.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. It is a crucial route for oil tankers. The article reports that about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products crossed it each day in 2025, representing roughly 20% of global daily consumption.

Its importance comes from concentration. If tanker traffic is delayed or blocked, many buyers immediately face less reliable access to oil. Prof. Xiaoyi Mu said that when nearly 20% of world supply is cut, prices must rise to balance the market. In 2026, tanker traffic sometimes returned to pre-war levels before falling again.

That uncertainty affected Europe and the wider world, not only countries near the passage. Buyers compete for remaining supplies, lifting crude prices. The result is a higher import bill and more expensive fuel, even where the amount of oil consumed has changed little.

When petrol and diesel become much more expensive, households pay more to travel and have less money for other goods. Businesses also face higher costs for transport, heating, farming, utilities, and energy-intensive production. Those costs can pass through supply chains to consumers.

The article gives a clear example. Average EU diesel rose from €1.54 a litre in early January 2026 to €2.14 on 19 October. Filling a 50-litre tank therefore cost about €107, compared with €77 in January. Petrol rose from €1.60 to €1.99 a litre after reaching €2.10 in September.

The effect extends beyond filling stations because diesel powers heavy transport and buses. Higher freight costs can raise food and everyday-goods prices. Kardas said transport, heating, agriculture, and energy-intensive manufacturing would feel an immediate squeeze, while households face reduced spending power.

A region that produces most of its own oil can meet more of its needs domestically when global supplies are disturbed. The EU cannot do that to the same extent. It relies heavily on imported oil, so overseas production, shipping, and prices directly affect its energy costs.

The article puts EU dependence at 90–95% of oil imports from outside the bloc. Eurostat recorded dependence of 96.6% in 2024. When Middle East tensions disrupted production and tanker movements, European buyers had to compete for supplies on global markets rather than rely mainly on local output.

This exposure explains why a small change in import volume produced a huge cost increase. The EU paid €750 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026, while its monthly import bill rose 55.8%. International disruption therefore reaches European fuel prices, freight costs, household budgets, and energy-intensive industries quickly.

An oil disruption causes a short-lived spike when supplies are restored quickly or other routes can deliver enough oil. It causes a prolonged increase when production remains disrupted, shipping is unreliable, demand stays strong, and replacement routes cannot move sufficient volumes. Prices then remain elevated while buyers compete for limited supplies.

The article reports that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sometimes returned to pre-war levels, only to fall again. It also says around 20 million barrels of oil and products crossed the strait daily in 2025. This shows why repeated interruptions can keep markets uncertain. Strong demand, including from China and other Asian buyers, adds pressure.

The article does not identify or measure alternative transport routes. It does show that Europe’s high import dependence magnifies the effect. A stable flow would ease prices, while recurring disruptions and strong demand could keep the EU’s import bill high.