New images suggest China’s fourth aircraft carrier could launch in 2027, analysts say

The Type 004 is the commonly used name for China’s fourth aircraft carrier. It matters because analysts believe it may be the country’s first carrier powered by nuclear energy, allowing Beijing to pursue longer-range naval and air operations. Its construction also signals China’s wider ambition to expand its carrier fleet.

Satellite imagery taken this month shows the ship in a dry dock at Dalian Shipyard. Its hull is at a stage comparable to Fujian’s in May 2021, about one year before Fujian entered the water. The unfinished Type 004 currently lacks its flight deck and island superstructure.

That comparison supports a possible launch in 2027, perhaps around the People’s Liberation Army centenary on August 1. CSIS analysts cautioned that the Type 004 is larger and may have more complicated propulsion. Brian Hart said a late-2027 or early-2028 launch would be plausible if construction keeps its current pace.

Launching an aircraft carrier means moving the vessel from its construction dock into the water. It is a major construction milestone, but it does not prove that the ship can conduct operations. Testing, fitting out, training, and final system checks still remain.

Commissioning is the later step when a navy formally accepts the ship for operational service. Before then, equipment such as sensors, weapons, aircraft systems, and arresting gear may still need installation or testing. Some work can continue alongside a pier after launch.

Fujian shows the difference clearly. It launched in June 2022 but was commissioned in November last year, more than three years later. Bradley Martin said the Type 004 could face a two-to-three-year gap between launch and readiness if nuclear-propulsion integration proves difficult. Thus, a 2027 launch would not mean immediate deployment.

The Type 004 appears to be a very large carrier, although its final measurements are not known. CSIS assessed the unfinished hull at about 322 metres long and 46 metres wide. An imagery analyst estimated the hull closer to 327 metres long.

The completed vessel could be longer because its flight deck may extend beyond the visible bow. The analyst estimated a possible final length of up to 339 metres. CSIS also reported that upper hull sections were being installed to support a flight deck extending considerably farther than the lower hull.

At up to 339 metres, the carrier could be comparable in length to the US Navy’s largest aircraft carriers. That comparison concerns length, not necessarily displacement, aircraft capacity, or performance. The Type 004’s final dimensions remain uncertain until more of the flight deck and superstructure are installed.

Nuclear propulsion uses reactors to produce energy for a ship’s engines and electrical systems. Unlike conventional fuel systems, reactors can provide power for long periods without frequent refuelling. The article says the Type 004 is widely expected to use nuclear propulsion, but China has not confirmed its design publicly.

An electromagnetic aircraft launch system, or EMALS, uses controlled magnetic forces to accelerate aircraft along the carrier deck. It can launch aircraft from the deck without relying on traditional steam catapults. The Type 004 is also expected to feature this system, although the article gives no confirmed technical specifications.

These technologies could make the carrier more capable by supporting sustained operations and more flexible aircraft launches. Nuclear propulsion integration could also delay completion. Bradley Martin said a two-to-three-year gap between launch and operational readiness was possible if installing and integrating the reactors proved challenging.

Fujian took more than three years to move from launch to commissioning. It entered the water in June 2022 and was commissioned in November last year. This gap shows that launching is only the beginning of testing, fitting out, and preparing a carrier for naval service.

The Type 004 may follow a similar pattern, but its schedule could be harder to predict. It is expected to be larger than Fujian and may use nuclear propulsion. Analysts say reactors, propeller shafts, underwater coatings, deck systems, sensors, weapons, and aircraft equipment may be installed or completed at different stages.

Bradley Martin estimated that nuclear-propulsion integration could create a two-to-three-year gap between launch and operational readiness. Therefore, even a 2027 launch would not necessarily mean the carrier could operate immediately. Beijing does not disclose construction timelines, and unforeseen technical problems could extend the schedule further.

Expanding the carrier fleet would give China more vessels for projecting naval and air power beyond its immediate coastline. In broad terms, carriers can help a navy maintain mobile air power at sea. Operating in both the western Pacific and Indian Ocean would extend the geographic reach of that presence.

The article links China’s carrier plans to a fleet capable of operating far beyond its shores. A larger fleet could allow more than one carrier to be deployed, while others undergo maintenance, training, or testing. That would provide greater continuity than relying on a small number of ships.

The article does not identify specific missions in either ocean. It does state that the Pentagon expects China to build six more carriers by 2035, potentially reaching nine in total. Analysts doubt that target is certain. Jim Fanell considered six operational carriers by 2035 more realistic, while noting that nine could require a third construction site.

Building and operating many large carriers requires industrial capacity, specialized shipyards, large dry docks, complex propulsion, aircraft-launch equipment, and systems for sensors, weapons, and arresting gear. It also requires support for testing, maintenance, training, and deployment. The article directly highlights shipyard capacity and the technical challenge of nuclear propulsion.

China is currently building Type 004 at Dalian, while Fujian was built at Jiangnan Shipyard. Analysts say reaching the planned fleet may require both yards to construct carriers simultaneously. They also point to a carrier-capable dry dock at Yulin Naval Base on Hainan island as possible additional capacity.

The key mechanism is production speed combined with reliable integration. China’s navy aims to build six more carriers by 2035, potentially reaching nine. Jim Fanell said six operational carriers was more realistic. Reaching nine might require a third construction site, although the article says there is no evidence of one.