Bangladesh scrambling as Ganges water treaty with India nears expiry, putting millions of livelihoods at risk

The 1996 Ganges treaty is an agreement between Bangladesh and India governing dry-season water sharing at Farakka Barrage. It expires on December 12 and contains no automatic extension clause. Its importance goes beyond diplomacy because river water supports farming, fishing, irrigation, and freshwater ecosystems in Bangladesh.

The treaty sets rules for dividing water where India controls the Farakka Barrage, 20 kilometres upstream of Bangladesh. Yet Bangladesh says flows are already shrinking. Villagers report damaged rice and wheat crops, falling fish catches, and rivers that barely flow for months. The Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project has also become much smaller.

Bangladesh says India has not answered its request to negotiate renewal. The two sides must use the Joint Rivers Commission, but their last confirmed ministerial meeting was in 2022. Without a new agreement, Bangladesh fears conditions could become worse than during earlier years without a treaty.

The Farakka Barrage is a 2.2-kilometre structure built by India on the Ganges in 1975. It stands 20 kilometres upstream from Bangladesh. The barrage matters because it is the point where the 1996 treaty governs dry-season water sharing between the two countries.

Bangladesh accuses India of using the barrage to divert most of the river’s water. When less water crosses the border, downstream communities face weaker river flows during the dry season. The article links shrinking flows with damaged rice and wheat crops, declining fish catches, and reduced irrigation. It also describes rivers nearly drying up during earlier periods without a treaty.

The dispute remains unresolved. Bangladesh wants a new agreement based on mutual benefit and respect, while India says river-related discussions belong in the Joint Rivers Commission. The treaty’s expiration makes the barrage a central focus of renewed negotiations.

The Ganges flows through the world’s most populous river basin. According to the World Bank figure cited in the article, 655 million people live across that basin. This makes water-sharing a regional issue, not only a dispute between two governments. River levels affect food production, fishing, irrigation, and freshwater access.

Bangladesh contains more than 50 million people within this wider basin. In the Barind region, residents describe rivers that flow weakly for almost three months each year. Farmers have lost rice and wheat crops, and fishers report sharply smaller catches. Two farmers reportedly died by suicide after crop losses last season.

The article warns that a treaty failure could threaten tens of millions of livelihoods. Bangladesh is already facing alternating dry-season shortages and severe monsoon floods. Climate change adds pressure by shifting river flows and damaging farmland, villages, and water-dependent ecosystems.

Lower dry-season flows would affect nearly every part of life along Bangladesh’s Ganges-linked rivers. Farmers could lose rice and wheat harvests, while fishers would find fewer fish in the river. Water shortages would also weaken irrigation and reduce access to freshwater for communities and ecosystems.

The article gives concrete examples. The Ganges-Kobadak Irrigation Project became inoperative because of water scarcity and has shrunk to 550 square kilometres. The Gorai River, which carries freshwater into the Sundarbans, nearly dried up during years without a treaty. That freshwater helps limit saltwater intrusion into the mangrove forest as sea levels rise.

Further decline could make these problems worse. Bangladesh’s agriculture-dependent economy already faces climate-driven dry-season shortages and destructive floods. The article also reports farmer suicides after crop losses. Without a new water-sharing deal, researchers and officials fear consequences could become disastrous.

India and Bangladesh share 54 cross-border rivers, so actions upstream can affect communities downstream. The Ganges dispute intensified in 1975, when India opened the 2.2-kilometre Farakka Barrage. Bangladesh accused India of diverting most of the water, especially during the dry season when supplies are already limited.

The United Nations intervened, and the countries reached a deal in 1977. That arrangement later lapsed, creating severe consequences, according to Bangladeshi environmentalist Sheikh Rokon. The Gorai nearly dried up, freshwater supplies to the Sundarbans weakened, and Bangladesh’s Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project became inoperative because of water scarcity.

A 1996 treaty eventually set new dry-season sharing rules, but it now expires. Bangladesh says water demand has risen on both sides and India has built additional dams upstream. It wants future agreements to include climate change and the entire river basin, rather than focusing only on one barrage.

A new agreement would require Bangladesh and India to negotiate through the Joint Rivers Commission, the body overseeing water-sharing. Technical officials prepare discussions, while government and ministerial leaders must approve any wider settlement. Bangladesh’s technical committee is headed by adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, and India’s foreign ministry directs river-related matters to the commission.

The commission’s last technical talks were in May, while its last officially confirmed ministerial meeting was in 2022, after a 12-year gap. A proposed Teesta water-sharing deal has been stalled since 2011. These delays show that the Ganges treaty is part of a larger problem.

Relations worsened after former Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina fled to India following Bangladesh’s 2024 uprising. She remains there and has vowed to return in December. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman may visit India, but no visit is confirmed. Bangladesh also says India has not responded to its renewal request.

A transboundary river basin is the full area drained by a river and its connected waterways when that area crosses national borders. The Ganges basin includes India and Bangladesh, so water decisions in one country can change conditions in the other. The article identifies 54 cross-border rivers between the two countries.

Focusing only on a border point can miss the wider system. Bangladesh says India has built additional dams upstream, while reduced flows have harmed crops and fish downstream. The Gorai also carries freshwater toward the Sundarbans. If upstream water is reduced, that mangrove ecosystem receives less freshwater and faces greater saltwater intrusion as sea levels rise.

Bangladesh therefore wants a future agreement to include climate change and the entire river basin. Basin-wide management can connect dry-season sharing with irrigation, fisheries, freshwater needs, floods, and environmental protection. The article presents this approach as necessary because demand is rising on both sides.