Bangladesh worries for water as Ganges treaty with India nears end

The 1996 Ganges water-sharing treaty is a 30-year agreement between India and Bangladesh. It governs how the countries share dry-season Ganges water at India's Farakka Barrage, 20 kilometers upstream of Bangladesh. Its rules matter most when river flows are low and demand is high.

The treaty expires on December 12 and has no automatic extension clause. Bangladesh says it wants a new agreement based on mutual benefit and respect. It also wants climate change and the entire river basin included. India says river-related discussions belong with the Joint Rivers Commission.

Bangladesh says India has not responded to its renewal request. The commission's last technical talks were in May, while its last confirmed ministerial meeting was in 2022. If no deal is reached, Bangladesh fears shortages could become worse than during earlier treaty-free years, damaging farms, fisheries, ecosystems, and livelihoods.

The Ganges flows through the world's most populous river basin. According to the World Bank, 655 million people live across that basin. More than 50 million of them live in Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Padma after entering the country.

This population depends on a river system that supports farms, fisheries, wetlands, and communities. Bangladesh's agriculture-dependent economy is especially exposed to changes in river flows. Dry-season shortages reduce available water, while intense monsoon floods can destroy farmland and villages.

The treaty dispute therefore reaches far beyond a border crossing. Lower flows can affect rice and wheat crops, fish catches, irrigation, freshwater supplies, and the Sundarbans. Bangladesh's officials and experts warn that failure to renew the agreement could deepen shortages for tens of millions of livelihoods, while demand for freshwater rises on both sides.

The Farakka Barrage is central because the 1996 treaty governs dry-season water sharing there. It stands 20 kilometers upstream of Bangladesh, at a point where decisions about river flows directly affect Bangladesh's downstream supply. During the dry season, when natural flows are already low, the amount released downstream becomes especially important.

India opened the 2.2-kilometer barrage in 1975. Bangladesh then accused India of diverting most of the water. The dispute led to international involvement, including United Nations intervention, and a 1977 agreement before the 1996 treaty established the current 30-year arrangement.

Because the barrage is upstream, Bangladesh cannot manage its received flow alone. Its farmers, fishers, rivers, and wetlands depend partly on decisions made there. Bangladesh now wants a renewed agreement that considers climate change and the entire river basin, while India directs river discussions through the Joint Rivers Commission.

Failure to renew the treaty could reduce dry-season water reaching Bangladesh. That would threaten rice and wheat farms, fisheries, irrigation, and freshwater ecosystems. Bangladesh's agriculture-dependent economy already faces climate-driven shortages and floods, so weaker river flows would add pressure to communities that depend on farming and fishing.

The article gives stark examples. Two farmers killed themselves after dwindling water devastated their crops. Fish catches in the Padma have fallen, forcing Abu Bakar Siddique to raise fish in ponds. The Ganges-Kobadak project, designed to irrigate 955 square kilometers, now serves only 550 and once became inoperative because of scarcity.

Lower flows could also damage the Sundarbans. The Gorai carries freshwater into the mangrove forest and helps limit saltwater intrusion as sea levels rise. Experts warn that consequences could be disastrous. At the same time, intense monsoon floods are widening rivers, swallowing homes, and washing away villages.

Water-sharing arrangements between India and Bangladesh have not always remained in force. After India opened Farakka in 1975, the United Nations intervened, and the countries reached a deal in 1977. Those arrangements later lapsed about a decade afterward, creating years without a functioning water-sharing treaty.

Bangladesh's environmental group Riverine People says the Ganges suffered during that period. At least three rivers almost dried up. One was the Gorai, which carries freshwater into the Sundarbans and helps limit saltwater intrusion. The country's largest irrigation project also became inoperative because water was scarce.

The 1996 treaty eventually created a longer-term framework, but its expiry now raises memories of that earlier period. Sheikh Rokon warns that a new lapse could be worse because demand for freshwater has increased significantly on both sides. The history makes the December deadline especially consequential for Bangladesh.

Bangladesh can use several measures alongside negotiations, but the article presents them as partial responses rather than substitutes for a treaty. People are already adapting by raising fish in ponds. The country has also approved the Padma Barrage, a major project intended to ease shortages and include hydropower.

The Padma Barrage was approved in May and is estimated to cost $2.8 billion. Its planned hydropower plant would produce 113 megawatts. Bangladesh could also protect and improve existing irrigation systems, although the Ganges-Kobadak project has already shrunk because water is scarce. Better management cannot create upstream river flow.

Negotiating over other shared rivers is another avenue. A proposed Teesta water-sharing deal has been stalled since 2011, while the two countries share 54 cross-border rivers. These steps could diversify Bangladesh's response, but the article stresses that rising demand and basin-wide changes still make Ganges cooperation essential.

A transboundary river basin is the connected area drained by a river and its tributaries across more than one country. Water moves through that shared system rather than stopping at a national boundary. As a result, an upstream dam, barrage, or water withdrawal can change how much water reaches downstream communities.

The Ganges illustrates the mechanism. India controls the upstream Farakka Barrage, while Bangladesh depends on downstream flows during the dry season. Less water can reduce irrigation supplies, shrink fish habitat, and weaken rivers that carry freshwater into wetlands. More intense monsoon flows can also cause flooding downstream.

These effects connect national decisions to everyday lives. The article links shrinking flows with damaged rice and wheat crops, lower fish catches, and pressure on the Sundarbans. It also describes floods swallowing homes and villages. That is why Bangladesh wants future negotiations to consider climate change and the entire river basin, not only one barrage.