ANC’s last throw of the dice

The 4 November local elections matter because the ANC has lost substantial support. Its vote fell from 65% in the 2006 municipal elections to 40.2% in the 2024 national elections. Projections suggest another decline of at least six percentage points.

Local results will reveal whether the ANC can still win enough support to govern municipalities or shape coalition agreements. Several major battlegrounds are expected to produce no outright winner. These include Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City and eThekwini.

The outcome will also shape the ANC’s position before the 2029 national elections. If it remains a strong coalition partner, it can retain influence despite losing dominance. If support falls sharply, it could face more opposition benches and greater political obscurity.

A hung council occurs when election results leave every party short of a majority. No single party controls enough council seats to govern independently. This matters because municipal decisions require support from councillors, not just the largest party.

For example, polling projects fragmented results in Johannesburg and Tshwane. In Tshwane, the DA is projected at 32%, the ANC at 24%, the EFF at 14% and ActionSA at 11%. Even the leading DA would need partners to secure broader control.

The mechanism is negotiation. Parties must agree on leadership, governing arrangements and support for council decisions. Recent polling points to more hung councils and continued multiparty coalitions. Their growth shows that local politics is becoming less dominated by one party and more dependent on bargaining.

The ANC’s support fell from 65% in the 2006 municipal elections to 40.2% in the 2024 national elections. That is a decline of 24.8 percentage points. The change measures the party’s long-term loss of electoral dominance.

The decline matters because municipal government depends on winning enough council support to govern. The ANC’s weaker performance has already been linked to more hung councils. It also faces intense competition from the DA in Gauteng and the MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal.

The local elections will test whether this downward trend can be stopped. Projections suggest the ANC could lose at least six more percentage points, falling into the mid-30s. Its rural support remains more resilient, but urban competition and service complaints could further weaken its position.

South Africa had 27 hung councils after the 2016 local elections and 70 after the 2021 elections. The increase was 43 councils. A hung council means no party won enough seats to govern alone.

The 2021 results also showed how power could shift beyond the ANC. The DA controlled 24 councils, while the IFP governed 16. Other parties controlled several smaller municipalities. These outcomes required parties to negotiate coalitions or other governing agreements.

The change reveals a more fragmented local political landscape. Smaller and regional parties now matter more, while the ANC’s declining dominance makes outright majorities less common. Recent polling suggests this pattern will continue, with multiparty coalitions likely to govern several major municipalities after the elections.

When no party wins a majority, the municipality becomes dependent on cooperation among parties. The largest party may lead in votes but still lack enough council seats to govern alone. It must find partners for leadership and council decisions.

The article projects this outcome in places such as Johannesburg and Tshwane. In Tshwane, the DA is projected at 32%, followed by the ANC at 24%, the EFF at 14% and ActionSA at 11%. No party is close to an outright majority in that projection.

Coalition negotiations therefore become unavoidable. Parties bargain over who governs and how support will be organised. The article says coalitions are evolving from a response to ANC decline into a defining feature of local politics. More smaller parties make single-party control harder to achieve.

Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City and eThekwini are important because they are expected to be closely contested. A fragmented result in any of them could leave the ANC without enough support to govern alone.

The polling illustrates the stakes. In Johannesburg, Markdata projects the DA at 35% and the ANC at 22%. In Tshwane, projections put the DA at 32%, the ANC at 24%, the EFF at 14% and ActionSA at 11%. These figures point toward coalition bargaining rather than clear victories.

The municipalities also expose the ANC’s wider weaknesses. It has already been relegated to opposition benches in Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay. Competition from the DA, MK Party and smaller parties, alongside complaints about water and electricity, could deepen its losses.

In the system described, voters choose council representatives rather than directly choosing a mayor. The resulting council then determines the municipality’s leadership through its political balance. This makes council seats crucial because no party can claim the mayoralty without enough support among councillors.

The article highlights the ANC’s failure to name mayoral candidates in several municipalities. Political analyst Wayne Sussman said voters wanted to know who would lead their municipalities. Other major parties did name candidates, giving voters a clearer picture of possible leadership.

The election therefore has two linked effects. It decides the council’s party numbers, and those numbers shape later leadership negotiations. In a hung council, parties must cooperate to govern. The article does not detail every municipal leadership procedure, but it makes clear that voters do not choose the mayor directly.