Israel polls: Arab parties may hold key to govt formation as Netanyahu falls short

Calling Arab parties “kingmakers” means their seats could determine which side forms Israel’s next government. Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition has the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. Their support could therefore decide who controls the Knesset and whether a government survives key votes.

The Arab factions hold 19 seats altogether. Ra’am has eight seats and has previously joined a governing coalition. The Joint List has 11 seats and has indicated it could support an alternative government without formally joining it. Together, these parties could provide crucial votes or outside backing.

Their influence is not guaranteed. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has doubted whether an opposition minority government could work, while opposition figures disagree over cooperation with Arab parties. The negotiations could determine whether Netanyahu remains prime minister, an opposition government takes power, or Israel holds another election.

The final results left Israel’s Knesset divided among three main groupings. Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc secured 53 seats. The four main opposition parties won 48 seats. Arab factions won the remaining 19 seats, giving them a potentially decisive position in coalition talks.

A government needs at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats to hold a parliamentary majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is therefore eight seats short. The opposition is 13 seats short if it acts alone. Neither side can form a standard majority government without support from additional parties or lawmakers.

The seat totals make negotiations unavoidable. Likud was the largest party with 27 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar won 21. Ra’am won eight seats, and the Joint List won 11. These figures leave several possible combinations, but also expose sharp disagreements among potential partners.

Ra’am and the Joint List matter because neither major political camp reached the 61 seats required for a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats, while the four main opposition parties have 48. The Arab factions’ combined 19 seats could therefore supply decisive support during government formation and parliamentary votes.

Their support could work in different ways. Ra’am has already participated in a governing coalition, joining the Bennett-Lapid government in 2021. The Joint List has indicated that it might support an opposition-led government from outside the coalition. That outside support could help a minority administration survive votes without formally joining it.

The outcome remains uncertain because cooperation is politically difficult. Avigdor Lieberman opposes joining a government with Arab parties or supporting one dependent on them. Mansour Abbas has also questioned whether an Eisenkot-led minority government could work. Their decisions could shape the next government or lead to another election.

Ra’am and the Joint List agree on neither a single strategy nor the same level of involvement. Ra’am has shown willingness to participate directly in government. The Joint List, made up of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad, has indicated that it could support an alternative government from outside the coalition.

Ra’am’s previous experience is important. Led by Mansour Abbas, it joined the Bennett-Lapid government in 2021. That history makes Ra’am a possible partner in an arrangement designed to keep Netanyahu out of power. However, Abbas has reportedly told party members that an Eisenkot-led minority government with outside Arab support was unlikely or impossible.

The Joint List’s approach could still help an opposition government pass parliamentary votes without giving its parties cabinet roles. But this depends on negotiations and on the opposition accepting such support. Because the two Arab groupings differ, their combined 19 seats do not automatically translate into one dependable bloc.

If neither main bloc reaches 61 seats, politicians can consider arrangements that cross normal coalition lines. One possibility is an opposition-led minority government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. Such a government would not command 61 coalition seats but could survive votes if outside backing remains reliable.

Another possibility is a broader unity government involving Likud, Yashar, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu. The article says those parties together could command 66 seats. This option appears difficult because the opposition campaigned on removing Netanyahu from power, and Lieberman opposes cooperation with Arab parties.

Netanyahu could also try to add enough partners to his 53-seat bloc. He and Bezalel Smotrich have reportedly coordinated after the election. If negotiations fail within the stipulated timeframe, Israel could face another election. The president will first consult parties and assign a candidate a mandate.

When no bloc has a majority, Israel’s president helps begin the government-formation process. The president consults political parties after receiving the final election results. He then assigns a candidate the mandate to try to form the next government.

In this election, the final results are scheduled to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog on November 4. The article says he is expected to consult political parties before assigning the mandate. This process gives political leaders an opportunity to present possible coalitions and demonstrate that they can gather enough parliamentary support.

Herzog does not resolve the political disagreements himself. The candidate receiving the mandate must negotiate with parties, including potential Arab partners, and seek a workable governing arrangement. The newly elected Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10. If the formation process fails within the stipulated timeframe, another election could follow.

Israel’s proportional representation system allocates Knesset seats according to parties’ election results rather than giving all power to one winner. This commonly produces several parties instead of a single majority party. Governments therefore usually depend on coalitions that combine parties with enough seats to control at least 61 of the 120 seats.

These results show the mechanism clearly. Likud was the largest party with 27 seats, but Netanyahu’s wider bloc had only 53. The opposition parties had 48, while Arab factions held 19. The largest party therefore still needed partners, and smaller parties gained leverage because their seats could complete a majority or sustain a government.

That structure makes negotiations central after every close election. Parties must agree on support, participation, or policy arrangements. Here, Arab parties may become decisive, while disagreements among opposition leaders complicate cooperation. If no agreement produces a workable government, the process can end in another election.