Netanyahu survived Israel's election - but a political reckoning may only be beginning

Likud’s achievement was its survival as the largest party after October 7. It lost “only” six seats from the previous election’s 32, which the article calls astounding. Netanyahu therefore emerged with the upper hand, even though his bloc did not reach the 61 seats needed for a majority.

The key mechanism is that Netanyahu’s coalition won 53 seats, while the parties opposing him won 67. But those 67 include 19 Arab seats, leaving the change bloc itself with only 48. Netanyahu can try to attract Gadi Eisenkot’s party, or parts of it, as well as parties linked to Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman.

That makes Netanyahu the central figure in the next stage. He may pursue a unity government, remain prime minister during negotiations, or wait for another election if talks fail. Even another election could help him because the conditions favoring Eisenkot’s bloc may not repeat themselves.

A governing coalition is a partnership of parties that jointly supports a government. It matters because no single party usually controls enough seats to govern alone. Coalition partners negotiate over policies, ministries, and leadership, then provide the parliamentary support needed to keep the government functioning.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, so 61 is the smallest possible majority. A government with 61 or more dependable supporters has more power to approve laws and withstand political challenges. A bloc with fewer seats may still attempt to govern, but it would need outside support or occasional backing from other parties.

The election illustrates the difference. Netanyahu’s coalition won 53 seats, below 61, while opponents held 67 in total. Yet those opponents were divided, and 19 seats belonged to Arab parties. The result is a numerical majority against Netanyahu, but not automatically a workable majority for an alternative government.

The election produced a divided 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu’s coalition won 53 seats. Parties opposing him won 67, creating a numerical majority against his continued term. But that figure combines groups with major political differences, so it does not represent one united governing bloc.

The decisive detail is the Arab-party share. Nineteen of the 67 seats opposing Netanyahu went to Arab parties. Subtracting those 19 leaves the change bloc with 48 seats. That is far below the 61-seat threshold required for a clear majority government.

This division explains why the result favors Netanyahu despite his bloc’s shortfall. Eisenkot’s side must either win support from Arab parties or persuade other parties to join it. Netanyahu can seek a unity arrangement with Eisenkot’s party, or parts of it, and with parties associated with Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman. The final balance depends on coalition negotiations, not just totals.

If neither side can assemble a governing coalition, the country may return to the polls. The article says that if the coalition-building process runs its full course, nearly another half year could pass. This would prolong uncertainty and would not be good for Israel, though it might still benefit Netanyahu politically.

During that period, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister. He would continue making decisions for the country, including life-and-death decisions, even without a new coalition. Meanwhile, parties would negotiate while keeping one eye on a possible next campaign.

Another election would not necessarily weaken Netanyahu. The article notes that conditions were unusually favorable for Eisenkot’s bloc this time: few small parties diverted its votes, and tens of thousands of supporters reportedly flew in to vote. Those circumstances may not happen again, giving Netanyahu reason to tolerate another round rather than accept an unfavorable deal.

Eisenkot’s change bloc cannot reach 61 on its own. It has 48 seats after the 19 Arab seats are separated from the 67 opposing Netanyahu. Therefore, it must gain Arab-party cooperation, either by bringing Arab parties into a coalition or by receiving their support from outside it.

The political obstacle is a deep disagreement over national identity and security. The article says some Arab leaders have declined to call Hamas a terrorist organization. It also says some parties reject defining Israel as a Jewish state. Those positions conflict with premises held by some Zionist parties.

A minority government supported from outside could replace Netanyahu, but it might be unstable. If it collapsed quickly, Netanyahu could use that failure in a new election campaign. Thus, Arab support offers Eisenkot’s bloc a route to power, but it also creates ideological tensions and political risks for the parties accepting it.

A caretaker prime minister is the incumbent leader who continues temporarily while coalition negotiations remain unresolved. The role prevents a complete power vacuum after an election. It does not mean the leader has won a fresh mandate or secured a new governing majority.

In this case, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister while parties bargain over a coalition. The article says the process could last nearly another half year if it runs its full course. During that time, he would continue making life-and-death decisions for Israel, preserving his practical authority.

This arrangement strengthens Netanyahu’s position in two ways. He remains in office while opponents struggle to agree, and he can wait if negotiations do not produce a government. If talks fail entirely, Israel could hold another election. The parties would negotiate under pressure, knowing that the country might soon return to campaigning.

Israel’s proportional-representation system distributes Knesset seats among parties according to their share of the vote rather than awarding all power to one winner. This allows multiple political groups to gain representation. It also means elections often produce a parliament without one party holding 61 of the 120 seats.

The result is coalition-centered politics. Parties must negotiate after voting ends, combining their seats into a governing bloc. In this election, Netanyahu’s coalition reached 53 seats, while opponents collectively reached 67. But the opposition was fragmented, and 19 seats belonged to Arab parties, leaving the main change bloc with 48.

That structure explains why the largest party does not automatically govern. Netanyahu can seek partners from Eisenkot’s party, Naftali Bennett’s parties, or Avigdor Liberman’s party. Eisenkot may need Arab support. If negotiations fail, the caretaker government may continue and another election could follow.