What to know about Alaska's Senate race with 2 Dan Sullivans

Alaska voters will see two very similar names because Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from rural Alaska, entered the Senate race against incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. The resemblance matters because voters could mistake one candidate for the other, especially on a crowded ranked-choice ballot.

The state listed Daniel J. Sullivan as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr.," with no party affiliation. The incumbent appears as "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent." Daniel initially tried to file as "Dan Sullivan" and sought the middle initial "S," according to Elections Director Carol Beecher. His campaign websites also looked similar to the incumbent's.

A judge overturned the decision to remove Daniel from the ballot, and the state Supreme Court upheld that ruling. Republicans now use radio and other outreach to distinguish the candidates. The ballot fight adds uncertainty to a race between Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola.

The four general-election candidates are Democrat Mary Peltola, incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan, and Republican Gerald Heikes. They reached the ballot through Alaska's nonpartisan top-four primary, which sends the four leading candidates forward regardless of party.

Peltola finished first with 49.5% of the primary vote. Sen. Sullivan followed with 41.4%. Daniel J. Sullivan placed third with just 2.5%. Gerald Heikes also qualified for the general election, but the article does not provide his primary vote share.

These results do not decide the Senate race because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in the general election. Peltola's primary lead therefore does not guarantee victory, and Sullivan's substantial support could be affected by how voters rank the two similarly named candidates. The article describes the November contest as closer than initially expected.

Ranked-choice voting allows voters to rank as many or as few candidates as they want. It is designed to produce a majority winner rather than simply selecting the candidate with the most first-choice votes. That system matters especially in this race because two candidates have nearly identical names.

If a candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, that candidate wins immediately. If nobody reaches a majority, officials eliminate the candidate with the fewest votes. Ballots cast for that candidate are then counted for each voter's second choice.

The process repeats in additional rounds until one candidate has a majority. Voters may therefore influence later rounds even if their first-choice candidate is eliminated. The article does not state how many voters will rank additional candidates, so the eventual redistribution cannot be predicted from the primary results alone.

If voters accidentally select Daniel J. Sullivan, those votes would not count as first-choice votes for incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. That could reduce the incumbent's initial support and make the race harder for him, although the article does not quantify the possible effect.

The risk comes from the nearly identical names. Daniel appears first on the sample ballot as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr.," while the incumbent appears next as "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent." Under ranked-choice voting, votes are counted in rounds, so a small shift could affect which candidate finishes last.

Republicans are trying to prevent confusion with statewide voter outreach and a radio jingle urging voters to distinguish "Dan S., Daniel, Gerry" from Mary Peltola. The ultimate effect depends on how voters mark their ballots and whether eliminated candidates' supporters rank the incumbent next.

Alaska officials initially tried to remove Daniel J. Sullivan because they believed his candidacy threatened ballot fairness. Elections Director Carol Beecher said he had made a deliberate effort to confuse or mislead voters rather than pursue a genuine Senate campaign.

Beecher cited several details. Daniel first tried to file as "Dan Sullivan," although he had not used that name to vote. He also sought the middle initial "S," matching the incumbent's initial, and used a campaign website that looked similar. Beecher also said he initially claimed to be a Republican without a state record of party affiliation.

Daniel appealed, and a judge overturned the removal later that month. The judge ruled that the state lacked authority to decide whether a candidate was running in "good faith." Alaska's Supreme Court upheld that decision days later, allowing both Sullivan names to appear.

The New York Times reported that a Democratic operative who worked with Mary Peltola's campaign and national Democrats helped encourage Daniel J. Sullivan to enter the race. The reporting cited text messages and interviews, raising questions about whether the second Sullivan's candidacy could split or confuse Republican votes.

Republicans had already alleged for months that Daniel had Democratic ties. After the report, Alaska Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into the Peltola campaign. The article does not identify the operative by name or describe the full contents of the messages.

Peltola has denied any involvement in recruiting Daniel. Daniel has also denied allegations that he is a sham candidate, saying he genuinely wants to run for Senate. The story ends with Republicans describing the report as evidence of an organized effort to manipulate Alaska's elections, while the investigation proceeds.

Alaska changed its election system in 2020 to replace traditional party primaries with a nonpartisan primary. The stated goal was to move the state away from party primaries and stymie polarization. The system first took effect in 2022.

Instead of holding separate party contests, Alaska advances the four leading candidates from one primary. Voters then face those four choices in the general election and may rank as many or as few candidates as they wish. A candidate wins outright only by receiving more than 50% of the vote.

If no candidate has a majority, the lowest finisher is eliminated and votes move to supporters' second choices. The system creates more than a simple two-party contest, as this Senate race shows. It also means unusual ballot situations, including two nearly identical names, can affect multiple counting rounds.