Environment & Climate30 Oct 2026 · about 6 min

Analysis: China’s clean-tech exports in 2026 to avoid as much CO2 as Brazil emits in a year

The brief

Clean-tech exports avoid CO2 when they replace higher-emitting energy or transport systems in the countries receiving them. Solar panels and wind turbines generate electricity without the direct fossil-fuel emissions associated with coal or gas power. Electric vehicles replace some petrol or diesel travel. The analysis compares the emissions avoided during use with emissions produced while manufacturing the exported equipment in China. For example, China’s 2025 clean-energy manufacturing caused about 170MtCO2, while the exported equipment avoided 370MtCO2 elsewhere. The exported goods therefore repaid their manufacturing emissions in roughly six months. This measure focuses on the difference between the clean technology and the system it displaces. The result depends on the destination country’s electricity system and expected replacement power sources. Because many exports are installed on high-carbon grids, their lifetime emissions savings can be especially large.

What does it mean for clean-tech exports to “avoid” CO2 emissions in other countries?

The analysis compares the emissions avoided during use with emissions produced while manufacturing the exported equipment in China. For example, China’s 2025 clean-energy manufacturing caused about 170MtCO2, while the exported equipment avoided 370MtCO2 elsewhere. The exported goods therefore repaid their manufacturing emissions in roughly six months.

This measure focuses on the difference between the clean technology and the system it displaces. The result depends on the destination country’s electricity system and expected replacement power sources. Because many exports are installed on high-carbon grids, their lifetime emissions savings can be especially large.

How much CO2 could China’s clean-energy exports in 2026 avoid, and how does that compare with Brazil’s annual emissions?

China’s clean-energy exports in 2026 are on track to avoid around 450 million tonnes of CO2 outside China. That amount represents nearly 2% of global emissions outside China. It shows how trade in equipment can influence emissions far beyond the country where the products are manufactured.

The comparison is especially striking because 450MtCO2 is roughly equivalent to Brazil’s annual emissions from fossil fuels. The estimate covers the effects of exported solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles and other clean technologies. It also accounts for emissions released while the equipment is manufactured in China.

The figure is based on trends from the first three quarters of 2026 and assumes those trends continue through the rest of the year. The impact is growing quickly: avoided emissions rose 26% year-on-year in those three quarters, after increasing 36% in 2025.

Which technologies—solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles—are driving the growth in China’s clean-tech exports?

Several technologies are driving China’s clean-tech export growth. In the first three quarters of 2026, shipments of electric cars and heavy vehicles rose 61% year-on-year. Wind-turbine exports increased 45%, batteries 39%, solar equipment 22% and electric two-wheelers 21%.

Solar remains the largest enabler of emissions cuts because China exports very large volumes of panels and intermediate products. In 2025, exported solar equipment represented 436GW of generating capacity once assembled and installed. China also exported 8GW of wind turbines that year.

The growth spans both clean electricity and transport. Solar and wind equipment replace fossil-based power generation, while batteries support clean-energy systems and electric vehicles replace some conventional vehicles. If the 2026 trends continue, wind and solar exports alone could generate about 800TWh of electricity each year, comparable to roughly 100 coal-fired power plants.

How do these exports reduce emissions once they are installed and used in other countries?

Exports reduce emissions through their use, not simply through their sale. Solar panels and wind turbines produce electricity without the emissions associated with the fossil-fuel generation they replace. Electric vehicles use electricity instead of petrol or diesel, while batteries help store and manage clean electricity.

The key mechanism is displacement. The analysis estimates what power source or transport system would otherwise serve the destination country, then compares its emissions with those from the exported technology. Solar shipments are especially powerful when installed on grids that rely heavily on high-carbon sources.

The scale can accumulate over decades. China’s 2026 wind and solar exports are expected to generate about 800TWh each year. Across the equipment’s lifetime, all 2026 clean-tech exports are on track to avoid 8,400MtCO2. That lifetime total is two-thirds higher than the 5,000MtCO2 estimated for exports in 2024.

Why are solar exports expected to avoid far more lifetime CO2 than wind turbines, electric vehicles or batteries?

Solar exports are expected to deliver the largest lifetime CO2 savings because their exported capacity is vastly greater than the wind capacity reported in the analysis. Solar equipment exported in 2025 represented 436GW of generating capacity, compared with 8GW of wind turbines.

That capacity operates over many years and replaces electricity that would otherwise come from the destination country’s power system. The analysis estimates that the 2025 solar exports will avoid 6,400MtCO2 over their lifetimes. Solar is therefore identified as China’s biggest enabler of decarbonisation abroad.

The article does not provide separate lifetime totals for electric vehicles or batteries, so it does not establish exact comparisons for those technologies. It does show that solar shipments are being installed on high-carbon grids, especially in south and south-east Asia. That makes each unit of displaced fossil generation particularly important.

Why are most of the lifetime emissions savings expected to occur in the global south, especially south and south-east Asia?

The global south is expected to receive most of the climate benefit because exported equipment is being installed where electricity systems are often more carbon-intensive. Replacing high-emitting power with solar or wind produces larger avoided emissions than replacing a cleaner electricity source.

South and south-east Asia are especially important. Together, they account for 52% of the lifetime avoided emissions linked to China’s 2026 exports. The analysis connects this share to solar shipments being installed on high-carbon power grids. Those installations can displace more fossil-fuel generation over their operating lives.

The pattern differs from the distribution of export value. Most clean-tech exports by value went to the global north during the first three quarters of 2026, yet 76% of lifetime avoided emissions were in the global south. This shows that where equipment operates can matter more for climate impact than where the products are sold.

How are avoided emissions calculated by comparing clean electricity or electric transport with the fossil-fuel systems they replace, while also accounting for emissions from manufacturing?

Avoided emissions are calculated by comparing two systems: the exported clean technology and the fossil-fuel system it replaces. For electricity, the analysis considers how much solar or wind power is generated and which power sources would otherwise supply that electricity. For transport, electric vehicles are compared with conventional vehicles.

The calculation also includes manufacturing emissions in China. This prevents the estimate from treating exported equipment as completely emissions-free. In 2025, manufacturing caused about 170MtCO2 in China, while use of the exports avoided 370MtCO2 abroad. The difference shows the overall benefit after accounting for production.

The analysis uses detailed export data, destination-country electricity systems and manufacturing emissions. It also estimates avoided emissions across the equipment’s lifetime, not just its first year. Results therefore vary with export volumes, equipment performance, destination grids and the fossil systems displaced.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.