More than 43 million ballots cast so far in midterms early voting surge

Early voting means casting a ballot before Election Day. It can happen in person at an early-voting location or by mail, depending on state rules. Voting on Election Day happens on the designated election date, which is Tuesday, 3 November in this article. The main difference is timing, not the purpose of the ballot: both forms count toward the same election.

The article reports that four to five million early votes were being cast each day. Voters are increasingly choosing in-person early voting, even though mail voting remains available. They are also returning mail ballots earlier than in previous elections. Some voters may prefer earlier in-person voting because postal ballots can be disqualified for errors.

Early voting gives voters more opportunities to participate before Election Day. States do not all offer it for the same length of time, however. The article says early voting will taper off as states begin ending the option in the days before Tuesday's election.

The 43 million figure is significant because it represents ballots cast before the election was even a week away. The University of Florida Election Lab recorded four to five million early votes each day, a much faster pace than in most previous elections. It shows that early participation is already exceptionally large.

The number is not the final turnout total. In 2020, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, and the election included a presidential contest. The article says current overall turnout appears likely to outpace 2020 and possibly 2018, which had the highest midterm turnout recorded since 1914.

These comparisons matter because they place the current election within a broader rise in early participation. They do not predict the winner by themselves. The final picture will include early ballots, Election Day votes, and the participation levels recorded after voting ends.

US midterm elections determine which party controls Congress for the next two years. Congress includes the House and Senate, so turnout matters because voters are choosing lawmakers who will shape national legislation. The article focuses on whether unusually high participation could affect that balance.

More than 43 million people had already voted, and overall turnout appeared on track to exceed 2020 and possibly 2018. Texas had already recorded more than 5.8 million ballots, while some border counties could surpass their entire 2022 turnout through early voting alone. Those numbers show strong participation in places that may matter in close contests.

High turnout can change the pool of voters deciding competitive races, but the article provides no final results. Early-voting figures also cannot reveal how unaffiliated voters voted. The eventual balance of power will depend on all counted ballots, including votes cast on Election Day and valid mail ballots.

Texas is especially important because the article describes it as a key battleground. Its results could help determine which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency. That makes Texas more consequential than a state where the outcome is not expected to affect the Senate balance.

Participation has surged there. Texas had already surpassed its 2022 number by around 1.75 million voters, with more than 5.8 million ballots cast. Professor Mike McDonald also found increased voting in some counties along the Mexican border. Those counties are more than 90% Hispanic, and some could beat their 2022 turnout through early voting alone.

The Texas data demonstrates unusually strong participation, but it does not identify the winners. Texas does not require voters to provide party affiliation or race, so researchers cannot use its early-voting data to classify voters in the same way as some other states. The Senate effect will become clear only after all ballots are counted.

Early-voting data can show who participated according to recorded party affiliation, where states collect it. In the roughly half of states requiring voter affiliation, Thursday's figures showed Democrats with 44% of early ballots, Republicans with 31.2%, and unaffiliated voters with 24.7%. The data therefore reveals differences in participation by registration category.

The article reports an increase in Democratic votes, while Republican early-voting numbers remained generally similar to 2022. Early voting also increased among people without a registered party. These categories describe registration, not necessarily political behavior. A registered Democrat could support another party's candidate, and an unaffiliated voter could choose any candidate.

The data cannot show which candidates unaffiliated voters selected. It also cannot provide party or race classifications in Texas, which requires neither. Researchers must therefore treat early-voting totals as participation evidence, not as a direct forecast of election results.

The pandemic changed voting by prompting more states to offer early-voting options. Those options included voting in person before Election Day and sending ballots by mail. This expanded the ways people could participate without waiting for the official election date. The article presents Covid-19 as a major reason early voting boomed.

The shift was especially visible in 2020. More than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, and half of those early votes were mailed. That election included voting for both the next president and lawmakers. The figures show how early voting became a central part of national elections rather than a small alternative.

The pattern has continued, though voters increasingly prefer early in-person voting. They are also returning mail ballots earlier than in previous elections. Professor McDonald suggests postal concerns may play a role, but the article says there is no data showing what is causing the change. States are now seeing very high early participation in the midterms.

Voter turnout is the level of participation in an election. Researchers commonly express it as the number of people who cast valid ballots divided by a defined voting-eligible population, then convert that result into a percentage. The denominator matters because different studies may use registered voters, eligible voters, or the voting-age population.

Researchers compare turnout by applying the same definition across elections. They count ballots cast, identify the relevant population, and calculate the percentage. They can then compare a midterm with another midterm, or examine early voting separately from total voting. The article uses overall turnout and early-voting totals to compare recent elections.

The article reports that turnout appears on track to exceed 2020 and possibly 2018. It also says 2018 beat the 1914 record for overall midterm turnout. Early ballots alone do not equal final turnout, because Election Day votes and valid ballots counted later must also be included. The article does not specify the researchers' exact denominator.