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Defence & Security31 Oct 2026 · about 7 min

How are the wars in the Middle East? See the conflicts that remain active in the region

The brief

The article presents several active conflicts rather than one single Middle Eastern war. It identifies fighting between the United States and Iran; separatist insurgencies inside Iran; Israel and Hamas in Gaza; Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon; and Yemen’s civil war between the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government. Iran, the United States, Israel, and regional armed groups are the main actors. In Iran, American attacks target strategic sites while the Revolutionary Guard has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Kurdish forces backed by the United States operate near Iraq, while Sunni insurgents fight in Sistan and Baluchistan. In Gaza, Israel faces Hamas. In Lebanon, Israel fights Hezbollah, which the article describes as supported by Iran. In Yemen, Houthis supported by Iran oppose the government, amid Saudi intervention. The conflicts remain connected through alliances, weapons, sea routes, and political support. Gaza fighting has formally paused, but Hamas cells still attack Israeli soldiers. Israel continues fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, while Iran faces internal insurgencies. Yemen’s ceasefire also broke down, keeping regional shipping at risk.

01

Which conflicts does the article identify as still active in the Middle East, and who are the main actors in each one?

The article presents several active conflicts rather than one single Middle Eastern war. It identifies fighting between the United States and Iran; separatist insurgencies inside Iran; Israel and Hamas in Gaza; Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon; and Yemen’s civil war between the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government. Iran, the United States, Israel, and regional armed groups are the main actors.

In Iran, American attacks target strategic sites while the Revolutionary Guard has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Kurdish forces backed by the United States operate near Iraq, while Sunni insurgents fight in Sistan and Baluchistan. In Gaza, Israel faces Hamas. In Lebanon, Israel fights Hezbollah, which the article describes as supported by Iran. In Yemen, Houthis supported by Iran oppose the government, amid Saudi intervention.

The conflicts remain connected through alliances, weapons, sea routes, and political support. Gaza fighting has formally paused, but Hamas cells still attack Israeli soldiers. Israel continues fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, while Iran faces internal insurgencies. Yemen’s ceasefire also broke down, keeping regional shipping at risk.

02

What is a ceasefire, and how is it different from a permanent peace agreement?

A ceasefire is an agreement to pause fighting between opposing forces. It may be temporary or open-ended, and it usually focuses on stopping attacks, protecting civilians, or creating space for negotiations. It does not automatically settle the political, territorial, or security disputes that caused the war.

A permanent peace agreement goes further. It establishes durable rules for relations between the parties, such as borders, governance, disarmament, prisoner exchanges, or security guarantees. For example, a ceasefire can stop Israeli and Hamas forces from fighting while leaving unresolved questions about Hamas’s weapons and Gaza’s future. Those unresolved issues can threaten the pause.

The article describes fighting in Gaza as halted after a ceasefire mediated by Donald Trump. However, it says decentralized Hamas cells continued attacking Israeli soldiers, and Hamas feared surrendering its arsenal. This shows why a ceasefire can reduce violence without delivering permanent peace. Its future depends on compliance, enforcement, and negotiations over core disputes.

03

How important are the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to global oil shipments and maritime trade?

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are narrow maritime gateways. Their importance comes from geography: ships carrying energy and other goods must pass through them to connect major producing regions with global markets. A disruption can force vessels to wait, take longer routes, or face greater danger. That makes these waterways strategic far beyond their immediate coastlines.

The article states that Hormuz handles a route for about 20% of the world’s oil. After Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closed it, allied countries began protecting ships, but traffic fell to 8.3% of its previous level. The article also describes Houthi attacks on Israeli and allied vessels near Bab el-Mandeb, in the southern Red Sea.

Hormuz therefore has a clearly stated global oil role, while Bab el-Mandeb’s importance is presented through attacks on international shipping. The article gives no percentage for Bab el-Mandeb. Continued insecurity at either chokepoint could disrupt supplies, raise transport costs, and increase pressure for military escorts.

04

What can happen to energy prices, shipping, and civilian life when armed groups close or attack major trade routes?

Major sea routes connect producers, consumers, and supply chains. When armed groups close or attack them, ships may stop, reroute, or require military protection. Fewer available routes and higher risks usually increase insurance, fuel, and transport costs. Those costs can feed into energy prices and the prices of goods moved by sea.

The article gives a direct example in the Strait of Hormuz. After Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closed the passage, the United States and allies offered protection to vessels. Even so, traffic fell to 8.3% of its previous level, compared with before the crisis. In the Red Sea, Houthi attacks targeted ships linked to Israel and its allies near Bab el-Mandeb.

The human consequences can be immediate. Disrupted fuel supplies can affect electricity, transport, food distribution, and household budgets. Military responses can also endanger civilians. The article reports that an American bomb aimed at Iranian military targets struck a wedding and killed at least five people. Prolonged disruption could deepen both economic and humanitarian pressure.

05

How did events such as the 2011 Arab Spring, the October 7, 2023 attack, and earlier regional rivalries contribute to the conflicts described?

The article links the 2011 Arab Spring to Yemen’s civil war, which began in 2014 as a regional consequence of that upheaval. It describes the war as a struggle between Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, and Yemen’s government. Saudi Arabia intervened militarily, turning a domestic power struggle into a wider regional confrontation.

The October 7, 2023 attack triggered Israel’s intense response in Gaza. The article says that response devastated the territory and weakened Hamas. Hezbollah then began attacking areas near Israel’s border with Lebanon, saying it was supporting Hamas’s action in Gaza. Israel’s operations in Lebanon expanded, including advances toward Beirut in March.

Earlier rivalries also provide the wider setting. The article points to religious and ideological differences, competition over strategic resources, and major-power interests. Iran supports Hezbollah and the Houthis, while the United States backs Israel and has supported Kurdish attacks near Iran’s Iraqi border. These rivalries allow local conflicts to spread across borders.

06

Why can a ceasefire break down when armed groups keep their weapons, operate independently, or receive support from outside countries?

Ceasefires work best when every armed faction accepts the deal and has a reason to enforce it. If groups keep weapons, reject disarmament, or operate through independent cells, leaders may be unable to stop attacks. Outside countries can further weaken the agreement by providing money, weapons, training, or political protection.

The Gaza example shows this mechanism. The article says Hamas accepted the ceasefire terms politically but feared giving up its arsenal. It also says decentralized Hamas cells violated the agreement and fought Israeli soldiers. The formal agreement therefore did not eliminate the group’s ability to act or the dispute over disarmament.

The same pattern appears in Yemen, where a United Nations-mediated ceasefire from 2022 was later broken after a Houthi offensive on the Red Sea coast. Continued outside involvement can make enforcement harder. Without monitoring, accountability, and a settlement addressing security concerns, a ceasefire may pause major battles while smaller attacks continue.

07

What is a proxy war, and how do countries such as Iran use allied militias and armed groups to pursue regional goals without fighting every opponent directly?

A proxy war occurs when a country supports an armed group that fights on its behalf, partly or indirectly. The outside power may provide weapons, money, training, intelligence, or political backing. This can expand its influence while reducing the need to deploy its own forces directly. The local group still has its own interests, so control is never complete.

The article identifies Hezbollah as a major militia supported by Iran in Lebanon. It also describes Yemen’s Houthis as rebels supported by Iran. Hezbollah attacked near Israel after October 7 to support Hamas, while the Houthis attacked Israeli and allied ships near Bab el-Mandeb. These actions connect local conflicts to Iran’s wider regional rivalry.

Proxy relationships can make wars harder to end. Groups may continue fighting even when states discuss peace, because their goals differ or because foreign support sustains their capabilities. They also widen the battlefield, linking Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and maritime routes. Negotiations must therefore address both local fighters and their external backers.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.

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