Arson attacks now so ‘routine’ that firefighters are being warned before a flame is lit

A “pre-warning” is an advance police alert. It says a potential arson target in a fire service’s area may soon be attacked. It is issued before flames appear, giving firefighters time to stay alert, prepare safely, and respond quickly if a fire starts.

The article describes more than 23 businesses, homes, and cars targeted in just over two weeks in October. Teenagers were often recruited by gangs to carry out the attacks. Stonnington recorded 34 arson incidents in the year to June 2026. Police intelligence can warn crews that another nightspot or property may be at risk.

The warning reflects how routine and targeted these attacks have become, not certainty that a fire will happen. Victoria now sees nearly 10 deliberate fires daily. Arson offences are nearly 75 per cent above the 2021 low. Advance notice helps services manage danger while investigators try to prevent attacks and identify those responsible.

Victoria’s arson problem has grown sharply since its 2021 low, with nearly 75 per cent more offences overall. Across the full decade, however, total arson rose 11 per cent, showing how quickly incidents accelerated after 2021.

The biggest change has been in targeted business attacks, especially retailers, which increased almost 140 per cent over the decade. Stonnington recorded a 385 per cent rise. It reached 34 incidents in the year to June 2026, as gangs targeted nightspots during the bar wars. Businesses linked to the tobacco trade made up one in 56 cases in 2016. A decade later, they represented one in 15.

Hotspots include Melbourne, Port Phillip, Monash and Stonnington, where attacks more than doubled. Wellington, Maribyrnong and Darebin also recorded steep increases. The trend means police and firefighters face nearly 10 deliberate fires daily. Teenagers are often recruited for intimidation, making prevention and identification harder.

Firebombings turn arson into a cheap tool for intimidation and revenge. They can damage or destroy businesses, homes and cars, while putting nearby properties at risk. The attacks are deliberate messages, often aimed at forcing operators to pay or change behaviour.

During Victoria’s tobacco war, rivals attacked businesses that resisted an illicit-cigarette cartel. Fires at tobacco-related businesses rose from 47 in 2021 to 102 in 2022. More than 200 linked attacks were identified nationally between 2023 and early 2026. That shows how intimidation spread beyond one venue.

Emergency services face a growing, unpredictable workload. Police sometimes issue firefighters a “pre-warning” that a target may soon be hit. Nearly 10 deliberate fires occur daily on average. Analysis of more than 29,000 offences found retail attacks up nearly 140 per cent. These pressures leave firefighters scrambling and make responsibility difficult to establish, especially when teenagers are recruited.

Victoria’s illicit tobacco market turned commercial competition into organised violence. Gangs used firebombings to control cigarette sales, intimidate rivals, and force businesses to pay an extortion tax.

The conflict escalated in March 2023, when Kazem “Kaz” Hamad began forming a cartel around smuggled cigarettes. Rivals and resisters were attacked, while encrypted messages helped recruit teenagers to carry out fires cheaply. Fires at tobacco-related businesses rose from 47 in 2021 to 102 in 2022, before the war’s peak.

That tactic then spread beyond tobacco shops to homes, cars, retailers, and restaurants across Victoria. Overall arson rose 11 per cent over the decade, but retailer attacks climbed almost 140 per cent. The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission linked more than 200 nationwide attacks to illicit tobacco between 2023 and early 2026. This shows how a low-cost intimidation method became a broader crime tool. Police now struggle to identify those directing young offenders.

Organised crime gangs, including outlaw motorcycle gangs and prominent Middle Eastern figures, are using teenagers as firebombing foot soldiers. They target homes, cars, retailers and restaurants to intimidate rivals, punish resisters, or send messages cheaply.

During the tobacco war, gangs attacked cigarette businesses that resisted an extortion tax or refused syndicate products. Police intelligence says one recently arrested middleman could reach up to 2,000 foot soldiers. Gangs recruit through encrypted messaging and online grooming. They approach vulnerable young people, including those in residential care, then expand to other teenagers.

Victoria’s children’s commission warned about this exploitation in 2021, but its call for a statewide response went nowhere. More than 23 businesses, homes and cars were targeted in just over a fortnight in October. Nearly 10 deliberate fires now occur daily, making organisers difficult to identify. Firefighters are sometimes warned before targets are hit.

Police often see only the person lighting the fire, not the gang directing it. Intermediaries separate organisers from attacks, while encrypted messages hide instructions and identities. Young recruits can be replaced quickly, making the chain harder to trace.

For example, intelligence suggested one recently arrested middle man could access up to 2,000 foot soldiers. Gangs recruited troubled and “cleanskin” teenagers online, then sent them to firebomb targets. The recruiter may know little about the organisers, and messages can disappear or use false identities.

This makes proving who ordered an attack difficult, especially when investigators have little direct evidence linking them to organisers. More than 23 businesses, homes and cars were targeted in just over a fortnight in October. Arson rose nearly 75 per cent from 2021’s low, leaving police many incidents and a constantly changing pool of recruits.

Arson gives organised criminals a cheap way to threaten people, punish resistance and send warnings. A firebomb can damage a home, car or business without requiring many participants, while fear pressures owners to comply. Police say identifying those responsible is increasingly difficult.

The tobacco war shows how this works. After Kazem “Kaz” Hamad sought control of the illicit cigarette market, rivals and resisters faced waves of firebombings. Operators were pressured to pay an extortion tax to keep operating and stocking the syndicate’s smuggled products.

That tactic has spread beyond tobacco businesses. Victorian arson offences rose nearly 75 per cent from the 2021 low, while retailer attacks rose almost 140 per cent over the decade. More than 23 targets were hit in just over two weeks in October, and teenagers were recruited to carry out attacks. The low cost and easy recruitment make fire a practical tool for intimidation, though it creates serious danger for victims and firefighters.