Netanyahu leads Eisenkot in race to form Israeli government

Netanyahu's right-wing religious alliance led the election with 53 projected seats. Eisenkot's bloc followed with 48. Neither figure reaches the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member parliament. That makes the result a political opening rather than a clear victory.

The most important surprise was the performance of the two Israeli Arab parties. They were projected to win 19 seats, almost twice their earlier projected total. Those seats could provide the support needed to cross the majority line. Ahmed Tibi said they could help Eisenkot form a minority government, but not Netanyahu.

The path remains difficult. Two leaders in Eisenkot's bloc oppose governing with the Arab parties, while Likud ruled out negotiations with them. President Isaac Herzog will choose who first tries to build a coalition. If both fail, another election could follow within several months.

A coalition government is formed when several parties agree to govern together. They share power and support common policies. In Israel, a leader normally needs backing from a parliamentary majority to pass laws, approve decisions, and keep the government functioning. The coalition turns separate election results into a working administration.

Israel's parliament has 120 seats, so 61 seats represent a majority. Netanyahu's projected alliance had 53 seats, while Eisenkot's bloc had 48. Neither could govern alone. Each would need agreements with other parties, including potentially the Israeli Arab parties, which were projected to hold 19 seats.

Those negotiations can be complicated. Two Eisenkot allies rejected serving with the Arab parties, and Likud rejected talks with them. President Isaac Herzog decides who gets the first chance to build a coalition. Until then, Netanyahu remains prime minister.

A majority requires more than half of Israel's 120 parliamentary seats. That means a leader needs at least 61 seats to command a majority. This number matters because it determines whether a bloc can normally pass legislation and sustain a government without additional parliamentary support.

The projected figures fell short. Netanyahu's right-wing religious alliance had 53 seats. Eisenkot's bloc had 48. The two Israeli Arab parties were projected to hold 19 seats, making them important in the arithmetic of coalition formation. The results therefore showed who led, but not who could govern.

The final outcome depends on bargaining, not simply on the largest bloc. President Isaac Herzog will choose who tries first to assemble a ruling coalition. If that effort fails, the other leader may try. If neither succeeds, another election could occur in several months.

The Israeli Arab parties could become kingmakers because neither major bloc had enough seats to govern alone. Their projected 19 seats could supply the support needed to reach a parliamentary majority or sustain a minority government. That gives them influence far beyond their size in the leading blocs.

Ahmed Tibi, leader of Ta'al, said the parties were prepared to help Eisenkot form a government, but not Netanyahu's. He described a possible minority government supported by Arab parties. Their improved result therefore created a potential route for political change, even though they would not necessarily join the cabinet.

The route is politically blocked in places. Two of Eisenkot's fellow bloc leaders said they would refuse to serve in a government with the Arab parties. They also raised demands involving Hamas and Israel's status as a Jewish state. Likud ruled out negotiations with the Arab parties.

If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can build a governing coalition, the election result will not produce a stable new administration. Israel's political process would continue through further negotiations. President Isaac Herzog first chooses who receives the opportunity to form a government, so the next step is an assignment rather than an immediate change of leadership.

The chosen leader would try to combine parties behind a majority or workable support arrangement. Netanyahu's bloc had 53 projected seats, and Eisenkot's had 48. Both therefore needed partners. The Israeli Arab parties, with 19 projected seats, could matter greatly, but disagreements inside Eisenkot's bloc made their support difficult to use.

If both attempts fail, another election could take place in several months. Netanyahu would remain prime minister while a government was being formed. That interim period could also matter for security policy, since the article says he could join President Donald Trump in renewed strikes on Iran.

Election uncertainty can unsettle markets because investors cannot easily predict the next government's policies. They may delay purchases, reduce exposure to local assets, or demand higher returns for taking political risk. That pressure can weaken the currency, shares, and government-related debt at the same time.

The article gives a sharp example. The shekel depreciated about two percent against the dollar, its biggest fall since June. The benchmark Tel Aviv stock index dropped five percent. Israel's dollar bonds also underperformed emerging-market peers. These moves came after the vote failed to show who could form a government.

The uncertainty was tied to difficult coalition arithmetic. Netanyahu led with 53 projected seats, Eisenkot had 48, and Arab parties had 19. Negotiations could produce different policies on security, judicial power, military service, and domestic affairs. Until the coalition picture becomes clearer, investors face less certainty about Israel's direction.

In a proportional parliamentary system, parties receive seats broadly according to their share of the vote. This allows several parties to enter parliament. Israel's 120-seat parliament can therefore contain many competing blocs rather than one party controlling government. The system makes representation broader, but it also makes post-election bargaining central.

The election illustrates the mechanism. Netanyahu's alliance was projected at 53 seats, Eisenkot's bloc at 48, and the Israeli Arab parties at 19. Since no main bloc reached 61 seats, each needed support from other parties. The Arab parties became potential kingmakers because their seats could change who controls the government.

The article does not explain the system's technical rules, but its results show the practical effect. Leaders must negotiate agreements after voting ends. President Isaac Herzog chooses who tries first. If negotiations fail for both candidates, voters may return to the polls within several months.