ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2026

September brought mixed signals from consumers. Inflation perceptions for the past year rose to 3.6%, and one-year inflation expectations reached 3.1%. Three-year and five-year expectations were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%. Consumers also expected slightly faster income, spending and home-price growth.

Income growth expectations increased from 1.0% to 1.1%, while expected spending growth rose from 3.6% to 3.7%. Expected home-price growth edged up from 3.4% to 3.5%. These changes suggest households expected nominal gains, but not necessarily stronger purchasing power.

The economic outlook weakened. Expected growth declined from -1.2% to -1.5%, and expected unemployment rose from 11.0% to 11.3%. Mortgage-rate expectations remained 4.9%, unchanged from July. Credit conditions also appeared less favourable, with more households reporting and expecting tighter access.

The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey is large and recurring. It currently covers around 19,000 adults aged 18 or over in 11 euro area countries. The September fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026. This scale helps the ECB compare household views across countries and income groups.

For the next 12 months, median inflation expectations were 3.1%. Consumers expected nominal income growth of 1.1% and nominal spending growth of 3.7%. They expected the unemployment rate to reach 11.3%. The inflation figure is explicitly described as a median; the release reports the other figures as aggregate expectations.

These numbers show a gap between household spending and income expectations. Expected spending growth was more than three times expected income growth. Consumers also foresaw weak economic growth, at -1.5%. The results therefore combine persistent price concerns with cautious economic and labour-market expectations.

The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey measures how households perceive recent economic conditions and what they expect next. It is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults aged 18 or over in 11 euro area countries. Its results complement other data used for ECB policy analysis.

Respondents report perceived inflation over the previous 12 months and expected inflation over future horizons, including one, three and five years. They also assess income, spending, economic growth, unemployment, home prices, mortgage rates and credit access. The September fieldwork took place between 27 August and 28 September 2026.

The ECB combines responses into country and euro-area aggregates. Unless stated otherwise, the release uses a 2% winsorised mean, a method that limits the influence of unusually high or low answers. Inflation figures highlighted in the release are medians. Results can also be compared across income groups and age groups.

The September results show a consistent income gap. The bottom income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than the top quintile. It expected mortgage rates of 5.7%, compared with 4.4% for the top quintile, and expected unemployment of 13.6%, versus 9.7%.

The release reports these differences but does not identify their causes. In general, lower-income households may spend more of their budgets on essentials, making price increases feel more noticeable. They may also face less favourable borrowing terms or greater exposure to financial stress. Labour-market differences could reflect concentration in less secure or lower-paid jobs, but this survey does not prove that.

The gap matters because economic shocks are not experienced equally. Higher perceived inflation can reduce lower-income households’ room for discretionary spending. Higher expected rates and unemployment can further weaken confidence. Policymakers therefore need to examine distributional differences alongside the overall averages.

When people expect inflation to stay high, they may change decisions before prices actually rise. Workers can seek larger wage increases to protect purchasing power. Consumers may buy sooner, especially when they fear products will become more expensive. Businesses may also raise prices in anticipation of higher wages, materials or financing costs.

For example, if households expect prices to rise 3% and businesses expect costs to follow, employees may request stronger pay growth. Firms may then pass part of those costs into prices. Higher prices can reinforce demands for further wage increases. This is one possible mechanism, not a finding directly tested by the survey.

The September survey recorded one-year inflation expectations of 3.1%, above the longer-term expectations of 2.9% and 2.5%. If such expectations remain elevated, they could complicate efforts to restore price stability. The ECB would monitor them with spending, wage and price data.

Central banks watch expectations because household beliefs can affect spending, wage negotiations and pricing. The CES gives the ECB timely information about those beliefs. It complements other data sources and is used for policy analysis, rather than determining interest rates on its own.

September offered competing signals. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.1%, and uncertainty increased slightly. At the same time, expected economic growth fell to -1.5%, while expected unemployment rose to 11.3%. Mortgage-rate expectations stayed at 4.9%, and more households reported or expected tighter credit access.

The ECB would weigh these developments with broader evidence before deciding on rates or other measures. Persistent inflation expectations might strengthen the case for keeping policy restrictive. Weaker growth, higher unemployment and tighter credit might favour caution. The release itself does not announce a policy decision or predict the ECB’s next move.

Inflation is a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. When inflation rises, the same amount of money buys less. A single price increase is not necessarily inflation; the key idea is broad, continuing price growth across the economy.

Central banks generally aim for a low and stable rate near 2%, rather than zero. A modest positive rate gives wages and prices room to adjust and reduces the risk that the economy slips into falling prices. Stable inflation also helps households and businesses plan spending, saving, borrowing and investment. These are general monetary-policy principles, not details stated in the release.

The September CES reported one-year inflation expectations of 3.1%, while three-year expectations were 2.9% and five-year expectations were 2.5%. Those figures describe what surveyed consumers expect, not the official inflation rate. Their persistence matters because expectations can influence future wage, spending and pricing decisions.