GMet warns of hotter, drier and dustier conditions as strong El Niño develops

GMet is warning that Ghana’s dry season may become hotter, drier and dustier from late November 2026 into early 2027. Most areas are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, although some locations could be wetter than usual. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also likely across much of the country.

The dry season is expected to run from late November 2026 to March 2027. Drier conditions could increase dust, bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock. The hottest period may occur between February and April 2027, especially in northern Ghana, where dust exposure may also raise seasonal meningitis risks.

The broader El Niño influence could continue into the first half of 2027. GMet says short, intense downpours and localised flooding can still affect southern Ghana and other vulnerable areas. It will keep monitoring the event and issue updated forecasts, while residents should follow official safety and weather advice.

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although the warming happens far from Ghana, it influences rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, including West Africa. That makes it important for Ghana because seasonal conditions can affect farming, water, health and energy.

The Pacific warming changes large-scale weather patterns. In Ghana, GMet expects this event to be linked with generally below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the country. It also expects more dust during the dry season. Some areas, however, may receive above-normal rainfall or experience cooler conditions.

GMet says monitoring systems and international institutions, including NOAA, IRI and WMO, show that the event is intensifying. It is expected to peak between now and January 2027, then weaken during the first half of the year. Ghana’s weather outlook will remain uncertain, especially for the 2027 rainy seasons, so updates are important.

The forecast covers most of Ghana, not just one region. GMet expects below-normal rainfall across much of the country and warmer-than-average temperatures in most areas. However, inland Greater Accra and Central regions, parts of Bono and Savannah, and several areas in the Volta, Eastern and Upper West regions may receive above-normal rainfall.

The main dry-season effects are expected from late November 2026 to March 2027. During that period, many places may become hotter, drier and dustier. Heat stress is expected to be strongest between February and April 2027, particularly in northern Ghana. Conditions will not be identical everywhere, since parts of the south-west and Volta Region may be cooler than average.

GMet says the El Niño event could influence Ghana into the first half of 2027. It is expected to peak between now and January, then gradually weaken. The onset and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain, so the Agency will continue monitoring and updating its outlooks.

GMet says this El Niño event could affect several essential parts of Ghanaian life. Below-normal rainfall may reduce water availability and place pressure on agriculture, livestock and hydroelectric power generation. Farmers may face crop stress, especially if dry spells last longer than expected or planting decisions are mistimed.

The mechanism is a combination of reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and increased dust. Together, these conditions can dry vegetation and soils, raising the likelihood of bushfires. They can also increase water shortages and heat stress. In northern Ghana, hot, dry and dusty weather may raise the seasonal risk of meningitis, while vulnerable people may struggle more during extreme heat.

The highest heat stress is expected between February and April 2027, especially in the north. GMet advises farmers to use official advisories, consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crops, and avoid bush burning. Households should conserve water, drink sufficiently and follow health and weather updates.

Below-normal rainfall describes the total amount expected over a season or wider period. It does not mean every day will be dry. Rain can still arrive in short, intense bursts, producing flooding even when the overall seasonal rainfall is lower than normal.

GMet specifically warns that sudden heavy rainfall and localised flooding may continue in parts of southern Ghana. Communities along the Volta River and residents of flood-prone, low-lying urban areas remain exposed. A brief downpour can overwhelm local drainage or raise water levels quickly, creating danger in particular places without changing the national rainfall average.

This is why the Agency advises communities not to lower their guard. Residents should follow safety guidance from NADMO and the Volta River Authority. GMet will monitor conditions daily and provide updated outlooks as new climate information becomes available, alongside its regular ten-day agricultural bulletins.

Previous El Niño episodes matter because they provide Ghana with experience of unstable rainfall and its consequences. GMet highlights the very strong events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, along with the moderate 2023/24 episode. Together, they underline the country’s vulnerability to changing weather conditions.

The key concern is rainfall variability. Changes in rainfall can affect when farmers plant, how crops and livestock cope, and how much water is available. They can also influence hydroelectric power generation and public health. The earlier episodes do not guarantee identical conditions this time, but they show why Ghana must prepare for weather that may differ by region and change during the season.

GMet now expects the developing event to peak between now and January 2027 and weaken during the first half of the year. It will monitor the situation daily and work with sectors including agriculture, water, energy, health and disaster management to support timely responses.

Farmers can reduce risk by checking GMet and Ministry of Food and Agriculture advice before planting or replanting. Early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties may help where appropriate. Avoiding bush burning can limit fire risk. Households and communities should conserve water, follow official forecasts and prepare for both dry spells and sudden flooding.

People can manage heat by drinking enough water and avoiding strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest hours. Residents should check on older people, young children and anyone who is unwell. In northern Ghana, reducing dust exposure is important. Fever, severe headache or a stiff neck require immediate medical attention because hot, dusty conditions may increase meningitis risk.

Flood preparedness remains necessary along the Volta River and in low-lying urban areas. Residents should follow NADMO and VRA safety advisories. GMet will provide updates as conditions evolve, while its ten-day agricultural bulletins can help farmers make more timely decisions.